저자: Jason · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 항공주 전량 매도를 근거로 항공 산업이 원격회의 확산 등으로 영구 변화했다고 주장하며, 자산 투자보다 집에서 하는 사업 구축을 권한다. 버핏 관련 주장: 2020년 2월 델타 주식을 대량 매수했으나 2주 뒤 항공주를 대거 매도했다고 설명. 주주총회에서 항공 산업 구조가 근본적으로 바뀌었다고 답변한 내용을 인용. 버핏 해석: 출장·대면 이벤트 감소로 항공 수요가 과거 수준을 회복하지 않을 것이라는 논지. 투자 판단의 근거 수치는 제시되지 않음. 항공 및 관련 산업: 항공사 인력 감축·무급휴직 사례 언급, 보잉 등 부품 업체도 수요 감소 우려가 있다고 주장. 과거 비교: 2008년 버핏이 미국 매수를 말하면서도 현금을 쌓아둔 점을 들어 '말보다 행동을 보라'는 관점 제시. 은행·유동성 주장: 2020년 상업어음 시장이 붕괴했고 버핏이 현금 1,470억 달러를 보유 중이라 금융기관 차입 수요가 생길 것이라는 추측. 리스크·조건: 항공 수요 회복 시점과 정도는 불확실하다고 인정. 원격 근무 확산이 장기 구조 변화를 낳을 수 있다는 전제. 출연자 전망: 항공 산업이 영구적으로 변했다는 장기 견해이며, 개인은 근로소득·연금 의존을 줄이고 집에서 하는 사업과 현금흐름 창출을 준비해야 한다고 조언. 주의: 자막상 항공사 매도 가격 등 일부 수치는 인식 오류 가능성이 있음.
다듬은 글
I want to talk about Warren Buffett right now Warren Buffett made headlines overnight and his shareholders meeting because of what he did and selling off all of his stocks in the airline industry so I feel like that that Buffett's overview on Airlines really does make me very concerned about the new term the airline business and I hope I may be wrong and I hope I'm wrong but I think it it changed in a very major way now this comes on the heels of some weirdness with Warren Buffett and why I think this story is so important I don't usually cover this kind of stuff cuz I'm not a stock market guy I don't invest in paper assets but why I find this so fascinating is that Warren Buffett you know usually has his pulse on the broader macroeconomic conditions and I think why it's so important is because it has broad implications for my industry and real estate and all across the board in March well let me go back to February Warren Buffett back in February bought billions more stock in Delta at the end of February at this stage Airlines had already been cutting back travel was already being restricted and Warren Buffett who's usually like this you know Oracle of Omaha goes sort of all-in on airline stocks now maybe he thought he could get them for cheaper and maybe that was his play okay but I often want to watch what Warren Buffett does not what he says because what he says sometimes runs counter to what he does so then in February he buys airline stock and then a few weeks later in an interview he sits down and he says no I'm not gonna sell any airline stock when airlines at that point we're already hemorrhaging music why would I sell them why would I sell airline stock but there will be interruptions and I don't know when they will occur and I don't know how deep they will occur I do know labeled occur from time to time and I also know that will come out better on the other end so it doesn't sound like you're selling airline stocks today I won't be selling Airlines and then two weeks later two weeks later he sells off billions of dollars of airline stock so then he was fine he sells off all these stocks and people were wondering what's going on here but he said he wouldn't address it until the May shareholders meeting for Berkshire Hathaway so he did and he answered this question last night it's obviously changed and the fact that their four companies are each gonna borrow and own perhaps an average of at least 10 or 12 billion each while you have to pay that back out of runnings over some period of time I mean you're ten or twelve billion dollars worse off if that happens and of course then in some cases they're having to sell stock or sell the right to buy his stock of these prices and that takes away from them the upside down and and I don't know whether it's two or three years from now that that as many people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year they may and they may not and he said look it wasn't a matter of the infrastructure of the companies the management everybody the management was great it wasn't reflective of that at all it's something deeper so what's deeper here and this is where I want you to focus what he said was deeper is that the airline industry right now is is fundamentally altered for the foreseeable future and the way he said almost kind of phrased it like we're never going back to the way it was what did he mean by that well he meant that we're not gonna be flying as much and he said do you really think that companies are going to be flying their executives and people all over the place on a regular basis you know I had friends that would fly all the time they were going every week they were flying to some event doing something else with all of these events canceled and these large-scale gatherings companies cutting back tremendously what he sees is not just the airline he sees in a total alteration of business people doing remote conferencing jumping on zoom' being able to do lives like this interacting with choler around the world why would I have to fly to London just to have a lunch with you let's jump on zoom' and talk about it I don't have to be away from my family but airlines already cutting massive amounts of infrastructure tap Airlines the Portugal cut 90% of its staff furloughed them I don't they'll come back American Delta United Southwest all of them how many people are gonna want to be flying to Resorts since being in close quarters with all these kinds of people travel industry is gonna be fundamentally altered forever so Warren Buffett sold all of his airline stocks all of them I thought that was devastated I mean I remember Southwest air is able to sell seventy thousand seventy million shares I'm sorry at twenty eight fifty and United Airlines uh sold thirty nine point three five at 2650 so I mean those are critical levels I mean this folks is tremendous what does that mean for Boeing what does that mean for other airline parts manufacturers he still is vested in some of those so at least he's has some of the parts suppliers that heat but who knows how much many parts will be needed anymore I don't go back to those something that he said after the recession in 2008 in the fall when things were absolutely crumbling and hemorrhaging in the fall of 2008 he said at the time you know I'm buying America he wrote an opinion piece in The New York Times I'm buying America buy America but the thing is he wasn't so he actually was sitting on so much cash he pulled so much money out of the stock market and he wasn't buying he actually was sitting on like I don't know forty billion dollars in cash and so intelligent people back then who really understood what was going on we're watching him saying he's telling us to buy stocks why isn't he doing it it said he's sitting on all this cash if he was buying America right now why wouldn't he be buying a lot of America the same thing happened this time folks he was saying you know I'm buying all this stuff I'm buying all this stuff and yet now during this recession he's sitting on twice the amount of cash over a hundred and forty billion dollars in cash so what happened last time all the banks needed a bailout who did they borrow money from because the cap the commercial paper market went dried up who who didn't who needed to lend money they needed to borrow money from someone I won't be selling airlines guess who they borrowed it from Warren Buffett the same thing is happening this time the commercial paper market completely collapsed a few months ago commercial lenders you know no money is trading in that way residential markets still find a commercial paper they're gonna need to borrow some money from someone and there's good old uncle uncle Warren who's sitting on 147 billion dollars so that's why you know I love watching what he does not what he says it reminds me of when Steve Jobs you know they were already working on the video iPod to play video on the video iPod which was my first ipod by the way and when asked about it would they ever bring video to the iPod Steve said no no one wants to watch a video on an iPod but they were already working on it at Apple cuz he don't want to give anyone a leg up a heads up you know that's how these that's how these guys do it so watch what he says not what he does so Warren Buffett's selling all of his airline stocks you know I don't care about Berkshire Hathaway that's not my concern and I'm not a stock investor but what it says about the future of our country and the reopening of America what this will look like I mean what about you are you going on a summer vacation are you planning to fly anytime soon are you gonna go to some large gathering some resort somewhere with the risks associated with this virus still out there let me know I would love to know in the comments if you plan to make a change are you in a live life the way you normally will you're gonna go to you know Myrtle Beach like you normally do or are you changing so airline industry is gonna be completely altered going forward the future of business is gonna be completely altered and look we can whine about it I think now is the opportunity for us to build a business from home I think creates something that creates cash flow and stop relying on other businesses to put a pay check in my pocket stop her lie man other you know a w-2 job a 401k government currency start thinking about how can you build a business from home this is the new normal and working for somebody else might not it might be a very limited thing going forward so that's our update for this afternoon I hope you guys are doing well surviving all of this Tanya says no I'm not going on any vacation you're driving to Houston next month you're not driving Jason would you normally fly there Keisha says I was gonna go on a vacation to a cruise but they give us credit back I want my money back so they give you a credit they didn't give you your money back sounds like Disney fired people right after the furlough did they no way Sherri Cruise that's interesting friends from Disney who were furloughed at Disney said they they were told they have to reapply for their jobs finding a Garza we all kill all we care about is getting money not your history stories well that's ignorant I have no tolerance for ignorant people if you don't understand history you're doomed to repeat it understanding the historical context of what we could see the people who want to complain right now that they're out of money they don't have money they had the opportunity after 2008-2009 to get their money out of the stock market stop working for somebody else stop investing in a 401k that got decimated and start building cashflow build a business invest in real estate things that are hedge against this mess then all these people got a little cocky well economy's fine everything's fine you go back and now they want to complain again you have to get financially educated otherwise you're doomed to repeat this stuff thank you Jason thank you for explaining about the history it's so important to our present and our future thank you so much it is it's incredibly important because people have showed short-term memories we've been through similar things before that we come out completely altered so all the people kind of complaining like when are we going back to normal we're not
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