저자: StanleyDruckenmiller인용—진행자Redacted채널 · 외국인
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스탠리 드러켄밀러의 WSJ 칼럼 발언을 중심으로, 연준이 긴급 모드를 벗어나지 못하고 있으며 과도한 통화·재정 확장이 위험하다는 주장을 다룬다. 연준 정책 비판: 긴급 완화 후 국채·MBS 매입을 계속하는 것은 부적절하며, 2009–2018년 전체 매입보다 더 많은 국채를 6주간 사들였다는 점을 지적. 경기 판단: 소매판매가 추세를 15% 상회해 이미 회복·과열 상태이고, 금리 인상 논의가 나와야 할 시점이라고 주장. 재정 리스크: 이자비용이 GDP 약 30%에 이를 수 있어 연준이 이를 화폐화할 수밖에 없고, 그 경우 달러에 심각한 타격이 올 것이라고 봄. 15년 내 기축통화 지위 상실 가능성을 중심 시나리오로 제시. 달러 수급: 외국인의 미 국채 순매도가 지속되며 연 5000억달러 유입이 유출로 바뀌었고, 주식 유입이 이를 일시 상쇄했으나 백신 이후 성장주에서 가치주로의 순환이 예상되어 달러 압력이 지속될 것으로 봄. 인플레이션: 휘발유·중고차·주택·식료품 가격 상승을 근거로 인플레이션이 확산될 것이라 주장. 암호화폐: 기존 코인 중에서는 비트코인이 가치저장 수단으로서 대체가 어렵다고 평가하나, 결제·스마트계약 영역의 최종 승자는 아직 판단하기 이르다고 함. 진행자는 비트코인이 궁극적 가치저장 수단이라는 견해를 소개하며 시청자 의견을 요청. 종목 언급: 개별 한국 종목 언급 없음. 미국 기술주·성장주 관련 언급은 있으나 방향성 명시는 제한적. 리스크: 자산 버블 및 연준 정책 전환 리스크, 재정 적자 확대에 따른 채권시장 반발 가능성.
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the fed should stop what it's doing it should stop printing money it should stop supporting this government buying of bonds it should stop stop stop that's not what i'm saying that's what legendary investor stanley drunken miller had to say this morning about what the fed continues to do with this economy he penned an op-ed piece in the wall street journal saying in part that the fed shouldn't be in emergency mode after this emergency has passed he said that the distortion of long-term interest rates is risky for the economy and for the fed itself he's the ceo of course of duquesne family office and a legendary investor he's in his mid to late 60s now and he sees this printing of money this continual propping up of these big businesses on wall street as eating itself and he might have a really good point when you look at the amount of corporate debt that is now sitting on the balance books for a lot of these major companies in wall street they are sitting on a mountain of debt and they continue to borrow even though they really don't need it apple recently borrowed another 20 billion dollars they are sitting on 200 billion dollars in cash all of these businesses are borrowing all of this free money and in many cases they're buying their own shares back so they're not hiring new individuals they're buying their own shares back and paying exorbitant you know money to these ceos stanley thinks that the fed did the right thing but now is the time to stop stan druckenmiller ceo of duquesne family office stan just wrote a new op-ed in the wall street journal in his words the fed playing with fire clinging to an emergency policy after the emergency has passed chairman powell courting asset bubbles and and stan in the past you have pointed out that the fed has stayed a little bit too long i think after the financial crisis with emergency accommodation but you seem to have taken your criticism up to a new level to the point of if you combine fiscal policy that we're seeing with the monetary policy it's the the scariest combination in the post world war ii period in your view certainly the most radical policy by a long shot that i've ever seen relatively economic circumstances let's not forget that ben bernanke at the peak was doing 85 billion dollars a month we are now back to normal normalization on gdp we're above trend on retail sales funny last year at the economics club around this time i said that a v recovery was a fantasy i couldn't have been more wrong but this is all about risk reward i understand why the fed and congress did what they did at the time i think it was the right decision on a risk-reward basis but when the facts change you have to change and the facts have changed dramatically since then and yes i don't think i can't find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances not one stan you talk about how quickly the job market has come back and he pointed out retail sales a lot of other things that are almost pre-pandemic levels and in normal situations you might think that the fed would be talking about an interest rate hike right now and you point out it's 32 months the other statistic that i saw you point out was and i don't have it right here but the amount of of asset purchases that the fund has or that the fed has orchestrated just in in a very brief period of time it eclipses what we did through the whole financial crisis for the seven eight years after the financial crisis what does that mean in six weeks last spring um we did more to eat more more purchasing treasuries than we did the entire time the nine year period from 2009 to 2018.
frankly joe i don't have a problem with that we were in a black hole no one knew where we were headed what i have a problem with is the fed is expected to do two and a half trillion of qe after after vaccine confirmation and after retail sales reach trend and we're above trend so the the the black hole didn't occur that's wonderful we're all happy but we're still acting like we're in a black hole and in fact uh the economy accelerating could your producers bring up the chart of retail sales is that possible yep i think we yeah we've got them all ready uh that we can bring up there that's the third chart there it is i think it's up now u.s nominal retail sales okay so if you look at this this is a chart of retail sales the last 20 years and as you can see they grow about three percent a year and after the last the great financial crisis it took about six years to get back to trent if you look at the current recession it's like nothing we've ever seen a sharper decline but then within six months you were back to to trend level and you see check one that's the first stimulus package that's the one i have no problem with i think it was the right risk award which was right at the bottom but look at check two and check three when they're coming not only are we back to trend we're now 15 above trend to put that in perspective retail sales grow at about three percent a year so we are five years worth of demand above trends there's some pull forward here away from travel but it's not 15 so when you look at this chart and then you look at the fed policy and all the stimulus and them talking about the hole we're in i just think it's totally inappropriate let's talk about the dollar and 85 of the transactions are still done in in the dollar you pointed out in a recent speech that you think we've crossed the rubicon are you comfortable saying with what you said there that that that for the first time in your career you think we lose reserve status at some point i'm comfortable with it that's my central case as you know joe i can change my mind but yeah um you said that to some extent the fed is enabling the fiscal transfers it's not to some extent they couldn't be doing this without the fed the fed is monetizing their activity i mentioned all the qe after vaccine confirmation and retail sales we've had 850 billion of direct transfers 575 billion of them came after retail sales were above trend 575 of the 850 billion i'm old enough to remember the the bond market vigilantes i used to be one of them without the fed buying i don't know what the exact number is i think it's 60 percent of all the debt issued that the bond markets would be totally rejecting this so they are enabling this massive expansion in fiscal policy and the problem is if you end up getting inflation and frankly even if you don't the debt is going to be so big you remember i did my entitlement talks eight or nine years ago that's all happened except for one thing the interest rate level so we're right now in the crux of when the demographic when the baby boomers accelerate in terms of of getting medicare medicaid social security that stuff right as we're doing that we just put six trillion of new debt on again all enabled by the fed these guys could not be doing it bond rates would go to a prohibitive level so my my issue here is in the future as we go forward if you look at do you have chart five up there let's get it i think we can do it uh which one uh it's federal spending social security major health care programs federal spending percent of gdp is the cbo this is not me okay and they're saying if 10 years go to 4.9 which is their normalized projection the interest expense alone will be close to 30 percent of gdp every year that's basically what we just spent on the covet emergency in the last year there is no way we can afford to have 30 percent of all government outlays be toward interest expense so what will happen is the fed will have to monetize that when they monetize it i believe it'll have horrible implications for the dollar and that's why i said in that speech yes that i think it's more likely than not within 15 years we lose reserve currency status can we go to the chart on the dollar specifically because i think this is really important last spring in the midst of an equity market meltdown and i've been trading for 40 years and i've never seen anything like this right in the middle of an equity market meltdown the bond market went down 18 points one day and everybody thought it was macro traders like me and others that were rejecting the the implications of the cares act the fed did a deep dive and by hindsight foreigners sold a trillion dollars a trillion of treasuries overnight as we were proposing the cares act they've continued to sell treasuries ever since then why is that important because for 20 years treasuries have been the go-to asset of foreigners to hedge global portfolios with in every case whenever you had a problem in the equity market or in the world economy they fled to treasuries and they fled to the dollar last spring that was violated so since then they've continued to sell treasuries so what we've gone from is for 20 years an average flow of 500 billion a year into treasuries from an outflow out of treasuries uh so when you have a 700 billion dollar current account deficit our estimate for the year you need capital to flow in to offset that if you just erase 500 billion inflow and turn it into an outflow you see the pressure will put on the dollar a reasonable person might ask well if that's true why did the dollar not go down from march to july very simple um who is the biggest beneficiary of coven obviously the massive digital transformation companies google microsoft not so massive but zoom those kind of names what country dominated in terms of those names the united states of america so the 500 billion dollar outflow out of bonds was offset by a massive inflow from from world central banks from sovereign wealth funds into our equity market by july they had become that had become pretty much in the market the relative prices had gone up and frankly the vaccine profile was starting to look better so that is when the dollar peaked as that offset started to diminish and as you know joe the vaccine tends to cause a rotation out of growth stocks into value stocks our big advantage over here are the growth stocks so that's why i think the pressure on the dollar is going to continue i was really struck by his thoughts on crypto specifically bitcoin we'll get there in a second but first i want to talk about what he said about the overbought market right now he said we're in this mania right now this frothiness he doesn't know when it's going to end but right now it is like hallelujah time it's like f scott fitzgerald partying in the 1920s but of course it all comes back to this runaway inflation we are going to see inflation hitting big this year and we're already seeing in the price of gasoline we saw of course the the drama because of the closed pipeline we're seeing it in the price of car prices you can't find a used car anywhere right now it's difficult to even find a house mortgage prices of course are skyrocketing and we are continuing to see the price of groceries going up the price of meat just buying bananas tomatoes everything is going up so this is going to come to a stop soon we are going to see runaway inflation the us dollar is going to continue to collapse which brings us to where he sees the us dollar he actually sees the us dollar as losing its position as the world's reserve currency that is a bold statement from stanley drunken miller what then stands in its place does he see crypto becoming the alternative i want to i want to get to something that it just is amazing to just see it in print from you and that is when we do lose the the status as a world reserve currency it's going to be hard to find a replacement because in china it's going to there's a lack of trust in the currency of a foreign dictatorship uh obviously and then europe's a mess your best guess is that a crypto derived ledger system will be invented and that that will become the reserve currency of the world okay let's not get too carried away i know i know but that that just sizzles with you know sell the stick is go ahead i knew i knew krypto was going to come up to this show okay so it's okay but um look one of the lines about the dollar we've all heard a hundred times the last 10 years is we're the cleanest dirty shirt in the room there's no alternative and it's true that is what uh has been our strongest case for the dollars europe is a complete mess um who's going to trust the chinese so it can't be them and i've been groping well how does that resolve itself well you probably don't remember this job but five or six years ago i said that that crypto was a solution in search of a problem and that's why i didn't play crypto the first wave because we already had the dollar what do we need crypto for well the problem has been clearly identified it's jerome powell and the rest of the world central bankers there's a lack of trust so sort of groping for an answer for a central case of best guess and it's hard to make a forecast three months from now much less 15 years from now i think the most likely the most likely replacement would be some kind of ledger system invented by some kids from mit or stanford or some other engineering school that hasn't even happened yet that can replace the dollar worldwide i don't know what it'll be i just know if the fed is forced to monetize the debt remember all in the name of raising inflation 30 basis points i really don't understand why 1.6 inflation with a mandate of price stability is a national problem national tragedy but okay if they want to do all this and risk our reserve currency status risk an asset bubble blowing up so be it but i think we ought to at least have a conversation about it so if we're going to monetize our debt and we're going to enable more and more of this spending um that's why i'm i'm worried now for the first time that within 15 years we we lose reserve currency status and of course all the unbelievable benefits that accrue from it hey stan you made some interesting comments both about the dollar and then crypto but i'm curious about where you stand you you suggested that there be you know some kid who's gonna create this next you know uh crypto uh blockchain ledger does that mean that the cryptos that exist today don't fulfill uh the requirements that you think that we'd need in the future is that what does that say about a bitcoin or an ethereum then first of all andrew that's a very good question but i'm a 68 year old dinosaur who has historically used gold as a replacement for fiat currencies but i'll i'll take a shot at that it's going to be very hard to unseat bitcoin as as a store of value asset because it's got a 14-year brand it's been around long enough and obviously there's a finite supply obviously ethereum has the lead in terms of smart contracts in terms of commerce that kind of stuff but yes my guess would be and thankfully i'm not betting on this one way or the other andrew but my guess would be you remember facebook was not the first social network it was number 11.
yahoo invented the search engine and with just a marginally better speedier technology we all know what happened with google versus yahoo it's just not probable in my mind that ethereum is going to be the ultimate winner and that some kids somewhere because don't forget some of the best and brightest of kids coming out his engineering problem they're all going into crypto the quality of the competition that's going to come against the incumbents in this space is going to be brutal that's why i just think it's too early to call who's going to be the winner in terms of the payment system commerce and that kind of stuff as a paris as opposed to store value where i think it is going to be tough to unseat bitcoin whoa big words from drunken miller there this idea that bitcoin is the ultimate store of value it is the store of value and yes of course you have smart chain contracts and all of this platform built around ethereum that's growing but bitcoin sounds very similar to what my in my interview with michael saylor bitcoin billionaire believes that bitcoin is the ultimate store of value it is a bank it is a bank in cyberspace and nothing even comes close to it not even perhaps real estate as a store of value and certainly not gold i guess what do you think hit me up in the comments below do you agree with stanley drunken miller on bitcoin being an ultimate store of value and the number one leader in this space i'd love to hear your thoughts
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