저자: TomLee · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 후 조정은 기대 선반영 탓이며 소형주로의 로테이션이 시작됐다고 봄. Fed 금리인하가 로테이션 촉매이고 러셀2000 중앙값 PE 10.7배로 멀티플 확장 여지가 크다고 주장. 블랙웰 3개월 지연이 엔비디아 성장 둔화의 원인이며 출하 후 성장 재가속 가능, 장기적으로 강세. 미 경제는 고금리에도 소프트랜딩, 기업 자본지출 억제로 금리인하 시 반등 임펄스 기대.
다듬은 글
joining us now fundra global advisor head of research and CBC contributor Tom Lee Tom great to have you with us N attac I should clarify we'll only have gains of it continues its strong session uh today so it won't be significant net gains Tom um great to see you long time no speak first and foremost what's what's your mark your reaction to how the market is processed and video's numbers it uh of course fell initially in the pre-market yesterday morning it was doing all right and then it did did close more meaningfully down by the end of the session yesterday well I I think Nvidia is one of these stocks that has become part of like a stock market lore almost everyone has a position and I don't think the results and the earnings changed anyone's Minds about Ai and the central Ro it's playing in in both Global productivity but also nvidia's role but it I think the selloff tells you that a lot of good news was priced in I think that's why uh the stock fell it didn't take the broader Market down I think that was kind of a a positive uh outcome and I think it just shows you that there's room for a lot of rotation and and I think that it's revealing that small caps is one of the groups benefiting from that rotation let's talk about that rotation Tom and the extent to which there's still a long way to go if you're looking at the valuations of some of those sectors that haven't done so well in recent months uh and Years or or whether things have bounced enough across the board that you start to get a little bit concerned about valuations for the entire Market not just the nvidias of this world um we valuations are definitely something our clients are asking us about because uh you know the equity markets have been rising for several years but the idea of a rotation I I think is grounded on a couple of things one is that the fed's rate path is lower and that benefits cyclical stocks and small caps and we know there's also a lot of cash on the side lines and investors drisk uh because of you know the the Yen crisis and and just general concerns about the summer and so I I think the Nvidia uh results plus the FED in September is really the Catalyst that it's going to get some investors to actually follow through with the rotation so I think we're early cuz for instance small caps I know people think they're expensive but the median PE of a Russell 2000 stock is still 10.7 times forward earnings that's compared to almost times for the S&P so the the small caps have a lot of room for multiple expansion but Tom do you want to just own the index I mean a lot there's a lot of not great companies when you talk about small caps you know in terms of just not just their indebtedness but any number of other metrics you might want to use are you telling people they should buy individual stocks or just buy the uh the index uh I think it's both David I you know we have a lot of uh portfolio managers that actually focus on small caps and and they're finding a lot of really attractive individual ideas with good earnings growth but I think there is a misconception about the Russell 2000 I I know there's many non- earners but over 70% of the non- earners in the Russell 2000 are biotech stocks and I don't think they're meant to generate earnings and if you look at Russell 2000 earnings in aggregate it it Rose 30 or 18% in the quarter and it's projected to grow 39% in the third quarter so in aggregate it's not a bad index to own anyways Tom I want to get your thoughts on the broader economic data this morning PC came in in line with expectations we had GDP yesterday at 3% versus the 2.8% estimate as we start to get ready for an interest rate cut how much is already priced into this Market uh we we'll never know how much good news is priced in but I think there was a lot of encouragement in both of the data point 2.0 you know PC core came in at16 you know the upside driver there was actually Financial Services which is because the stock market's up it's showing up as inflation in pce core the year-over-year is staying at 2.5 2.6 which means most people were thinking that year-over-year would actually tick up they had negative revisions for the prior months and on the inflation side you know the the a 2.8 for yish one year that's pre-pandemic levels of inflation consumers are always around 2.8 so I I think this is giving the FED a lot more green light to cut and focus on keeping the labor market strong which means it's essentially acting as a fed put going forward to Tom stepping back uh you've obviously made some fantastic calls over the last couple of years I'm I'm interested in your take as to why higher interest rates didn't derail Market valuations in a more pronounced or or prolonged way and I guess linked to that is the extent to which actually now when rates come down again will it really benefit the market as much as maybe some people are expecting uh yes I I I would I agree with you I think most of us thought that if the FED raises rates at the highest Pace in history we should have either had a a hard attack in the economy um and an economic recession plus a stock market crash you know we did get a huge stock market correction but we got a soft Landing I I think parts of the economy did go into recession Wilford we know housing activity is recession level the Auto industry is essentially suffering from recession when you look at delinquency rates on loans so I I think there has been real negative consequences of high rates and we know it's stressing the low-end consumer I I think the CEOs are the ones that didn't get caught in this because the FED signaled they were going to raise rates dramatically that means no company did capex in the face of that many companies cut inventory they raised a lot of cash I think businesses prevented us from having a recession because they got cautious and I I think that's why when the FED starts to cut there is going to be a positive impulse because one there's pent up Capital spending companies aren't over levered there's going to be IPOs you guys talked about at the the dir of it that should come back and as you cut rates that's going to stimulate the consumer um Tom real quick you you you mentioned the market multiple the S&P I should say at 17 are you expecting $330 dollars of S&P earnings CU that's what that implies uh well I'm that's the median PE David so um what when I look at median I'm taking the the the 250th stock in the S&P and that's at 17 times I think in aggregate the multiple is higher because the mag 7 uh have a higher PE but I I think the median is a better way to look at Market composition and and I'm comparing that to the Russell 2000 median you know the 1,000 stock in the Russell oh yeah I wanted to make sure I understood that cuz that was a bit lower than I'd anticipated where are you on S&P ears do you have an estimate uh you know we originally thought this that 2025 earnings at the start of this year would be 260 I think it's tracking closer to 280 so it's not that the market is cheap on next year's earnings cuz that would be you know roughly 20 times but I think that if we think about Market breath expansion then we want to think about the stocks outside the mag 7 and I think there's room for multiple expansion there Tom Le great to see you thanks for joining us all right I hope you're all having a great day today the S and P closed up roughly 1% today and Nvidia finished the day up about 1.5% as I mentioned in yesterday's video we did close yesterday just underneath the 50-day moving average on The Daily time frame the 50 ma is the purple line on your screen and typically when we close below this moving average on The Daily time frame we trade under it for a number of days before moving higher you can see that happened a couple of times on the chart that you're looking at right now and if I were to go back even further on the chart you would see the same thing happen on multiple occasions it is typical that when Nvidia closes below the 50 Ma on The Daily time frame then we hang out below the 50 ma for a number of days of course 't always have to and today we once again close below the 50 Ma on The Daily time frame I'll be watching the days ahead to see if we get a retest of this support trend line that stretches all the way back to January of this year now I want to go back to invidious earnings report and mention something very very important that I just realized today I'm not going to go through the numbers of the report again because I don't want to be redundant if you want to see me go through some of the numbers from invidious earnings report then feel free to check out the past couple of videos on this channel so let me Briefly summarize the report and then I want to make a very important point if I had to summarize the earnings report and conference call I would say that Nvidia reported a great quarter they beat consensus estimates on Revenue EPs and guidance however although they beat expectations some Market participants perceived the report as a mild disappointment because Nvidia did not beat estimates as much as they have in recent quarters and this caused Market participants to worry about nvidia's rate of growth slowing and don't get me wrong the rate of growth did technically slow this court on nvidia's conference call they acknowledged that they made a change to the Blackwell GP mask and we can infer that this likely caused Blackwell to be delayed by about 3 months Jensen Hong said the change to the mask is complete and that Blackwell is expected to ship in Q4 and listen to this because it is very important Nvidia expects to bring in quote several billion dollars of Blackwell Revenue in Q4 when Blackwell begins to ship so several means more than two but not many so let's just say that Nvidia is expecting $3 billion of Blackwell Revenue in Q4 now think about this for a second Blackwell is delayed by about 3 months and Nvidia expects to see about $3 billion in revenue from Blackwell in the first quarter that it starts to ship so if there had not been a 3-month delay in Blackwell then Nvidia likely would have guided next quarter's Revenue Higher by about 3 billion the street was expecting guidance for next quarter to be $ 31.77575 billion if Blackwell had not been delayed by 3 months then we would have seen guidance of roughly $35.5 billion for next quarter nearly $4 billion higher than consensus estimates and if Nvidia had guided for revenue of $35.5 billion next quarter then the grow rate of Nvidia would still be accelerating do you see why this is such a big deal it all comes down to the delay in Blackwell the deceleration of nvidia's growth rate this quarter was because of the 3-month delay in Blackwell this is a very big deal because it means that we very well could see Revenue growth re accelerate in the future once Blackwell ships in volume of course I don't know what the future holds and I could be completely wrong but this seems very reasonable to me additionally Jin and Hong emphasized on the earnings call that Blackwell is so much more than just a chip it's an entire platform this means that Nvidia has great earnings Potential from Blackwell in the short term it is entirely possible that the market could treat Nvidia more like a typical Mega cap Tech stock and therefore we could potentially see a tighter multiple apply to Nvidia stock in the short term long term though I am bullish on Nvidia and I think it is very encouraging that we could once again see nvidia's growth rate re accelerate at some point in the future speaking to the fundamental business of Nvidia hyperscalers like Microsoft Amazon metag Google and Tesla simply cannot afford to be laid on AI they must invest in AI now or else they will be quickly left behind by their competition for right now Nvidia is the Undisputed able leader in AI chips and it's not even close so whether or not we see nvidia's growth rate re accelerate with Blackwell shipping and volume I am bullish on the long-term future of Nvidia of course I don't know what the future holds but I am bullish on the long-term future of Nvidia and I think this company has a clear Road of long-term growth ahead of it with all that being said I hope you all have a great holiday weekend I'm curious to know and feel free to let me know what you think about nvidia's growth rate potentially re accelerating in the future
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