저자: 西出滋 · 외국인
요약 보기
레버리지 ETF TQQQ(나스닥100 3배)는 장기 자산형성에 유망하다는 주장. 백테스트(2011년 1월 시작, 1만달러 기준)에서 QQQ는 약 5.0배(50,219달러), TQQQ는 약 301.8배(3,017,687달러)로 상승. 다만 TQQQ는 연간수익률 표준편차 47.85%(QQQ 14.99%), 최악 연도 -19.8%(QQQ -0.12%), 최대낙폭 -49.12%(QQQ -16.96%)로 변동성이 크고, 횡보장에 약하며 복리 효과로 하락 시 손실이 확대됨. 수수료율은 TQQQ 0.95%, QQQ 0.20%.
다듬은 글
Thank you for watching. This is a lesson in a band version. This time, we will be discussing whether the leveraged ETF T999 is worthwhile, and we will be sharing information from both the East and West. If you watch this video, you will understand that T999, among leveraged ETFs which are said to be high risk, has a high potential to be useful for your asset building in the long term.
Please watch until the end. What exactly is an ETF? An ETF is an investment trust that is listed on the stock market, and its characteristic is that you can trade in real time while watching the stock price movements during market hours. Also, because it is an investment trust, it is inherently diversified, and the expense ratio of PTFs tends to be lower than the management fees of general investment trusts.
Furthermore, a leveraged ETF is an ETF that is set to move at 2 or 3 times the price of the index it tracks using the principle of leverage. Leverage and Adecco are mechanisms that allow you to see a big response with a small force. So, what kind of ETF is T99? Its nickname is Russian Ultra Pro 999.
It is in the description box. I talked about it in another video. 999 is a fund that has been trading 100 times in a row on the NASDAQ. Please also check out this video. T99 is set up to move three times the value per day. When it goes up, it goes up a lot, and when it goes up, it goes down a lot. For this reason, it is said that the price movements are volatile and it is not suitable for beginners.
One point to note about T99 is that it is not strictly the same as 999. One factor is the expense ratio. 999 has an expense ratio of 20 percent, while T99 has an expense ratio of 0.95 percent. Earlier I mentioned that ETFs have lower expense ratios than general mutual funds, but ETFs like T99 generally have high expense ratios.
However, even if you bear that expense ratio, the effect of stocks is that you can get a lot of results. Also, if the trend of price movements continues, the total fluctuation range may be more than three times. This is due to the compounding effect, which you are probably familiar with. It is also called the snowman method, when you make a snowball it doesn't get very big at first, but later it gets very big with just one rotation.
This is the compounding effect. Conversely, when it shrinks, if the trend continues, the rate of decrease towards the end will be larger. An additional point to note is that it is weak in range-bound markets. This is also due to the compounding effect. As the ups and downs are repeated many times, the principal decreases, and as a result, the decrease in assets is observed to be larger when it is down.
Let's look at the backtest results. This is a backtest of $10,000 invested from January 2011, for which data is available for 99 and t99. Looking at the final investment results, 999 increased $10,000 to 50,219, while t99 increased to a staggering 3,017,687. In about 10 years, 999, which is linked to the Nasdaq 100, increased 5 times.
This is still a very good performance, but t99 increased by more than 30 times. However, the point to note is that the price fluctuations are very large. The standard deviation, which represents the risk of annual returns, is 14.99% for 999, while it is 47.85 percent for t99. Furthermore, the worst year of return is 999.
While the emergency option had a -0.12% return, t99 had a -19.8% return. Furthermore, the drawdown, which represents the decline from the high, was -16.96% for 999, compared to -49.12% for t99. There is a possibility that your assets could be halved temporarily. This is a point to be aware of with t999.
Also, as mentioned in the previous point of caution, in the chart you see, during the period marked 1, 999 was trading sideways with repeated ups and downs in a range. However, t99 ultimately experienced a 3-gun phenomenon. Next, because it was in an upward trend with a tendency towards easing, the rise of t99 was larger than that of 999.
And in the period marked 3, 999 again entered a range market and traded sideways with repeated ups and downs, resulting in a decrease for t99-3. The points of caution mentioned earlier were also confirmed in the actual backtest results. This chart is a logarithmic chart, which focuses on the rate of return rather than the range of return.
Please look at the next chart again. This is the range that you normally see. This is a regular chart. In other videos, we could see that the rise of 999 was a step ahead. However, when compared to t99, you can see how incredible the power of GTF's resilience is. 999 is generally said to be high-risk due to its large volatility, but it looks almost straight.
The fluctuations in this shock were also extremely large, so when investing, it is very important not to be swayed by short-term fluctuations in returns. Next is the Glacier Drawdown. This is a list of the 10 largest drawdowns from the high. The top is 999 and the bottom is t99. Each period is marked in yellow, red, and blue to correspond.
The other largest drawdown for 999 was the one that started in September 2018. The decline was 16.96%, but it took 4 months to recover from the low and 8 months to recover from the high to the next high. Even this may be difficult for those who have just started investing to withstand. 99 experienced a 40% decline, falling 71 percent, and it took 11 months to recover from its lows and 1 year and 5 months to reach its highs.
This means it experienced a larger and longer period of decline than 999. Investing in 999 requires the ability to withstand this. However, investors with the courage to endure this will ultimately achieve good results as long as 99 maintains an upward trend. In conclusion, 999 includes leading growth companies not only in the US but also globally, such as Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft, and is highly likely to continue to be a new growth company that drives the NASDAQ 100 index.
Targeting 999 and aiming for 3 times its price movement, t99 has a high probability of achieving high results in the future, as seen in backtest results. Although it is weak in range-bound markets, it has great potential for long-term returns. For those who can afford it, t999 will be a promising investment.
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