Why Mohamed El-Erian is concerned about inflation, Delta variant

요약 보기

결론: 단기적으로는 낙관적이나, 인플레이션이 일시적이지 않을 위험을 우려하며 연준이 뒤처질 가능성을 경고함. [단기 시장 전망] 현재 시장은 글로벌 성장 회복, 인플레이션의 일시성, 중앙은행의 지속적 완화라는 세 가지 테마에 안도하고 있음. 연준 고위 인사들의 발언으로 금융여건이 FOMC 이전보다 완화됨. 이 세 테마가 유지되는 한 긍정적 모멘텀이 이어질 것으로 봄. [연준 및 테이퍼링] 다음 연준 가이던스는 8월 잭슨홀 회의에서 나올 것으로 예상되며, 테이퍼링 시작 시점과 속도에 대한 신호가 나올 것으로 전망함. 시장은 연준이 인플레이션을 일시적으로 보는 한 안도하고 있음. [델타 변이 및 경제 성장] 델타 변이 확산으로 호주 시드니 등에서 봉쇄가 재시행되고 이스라엘은 실내 마스크를 재도입함. 다만 백신이 입원·사망 연결고리를 크게 약화시켜 과거보다 경제적 파급은 작다고 봄. 미접종자에게는 여전히 높은 위험. [인플레이션 우려 - 핵심 리스크] 인플레이션이 일시적이지 않다는 증거가 매일 늘고 있다고 판단. 연준이 뒤처져 따라잡기(catch-up)를 해야 하는 상황이 되면, 가속페달에서 천천히 발을 떼는 대신 브레이크를 세게 밟아야 해 보통 경기침체로 이어진다고 경고. 다만 이는 당장의 이슈가 아니며, 인플레이션 성격에 대한 명확한 증거는 연말 무렵에야 나올 것으로 봄. [종목·자산 언급] 특정 종목·지수에 대한 명시적 방향 예측은 없음. 시장 전반의 단기 긍정 모멘텀과 중장기 인플레이션/연준 리스크에 대한 우려가 중심.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. joining us right now to talk more about the markets and what to expect is allianz and gramercy advisor muhammad al-aryan he's also the president of queen's college cambridge muhammad what are you thinking right now are you nervous about where things stand are you feeling pretty good about things what would you do so i feel pretty good in the short term for the reasons that i've shared with you over the last few months and it speaks directly to what mike just said borrowing markets tend to be positive markets so what's boring people are very comfortable with the global growth story and every day we get reinforcement that global growth is picking up people are comfortable with the notion that inflation is transitory after all we've been reassured of this over and over again by central banks and people are comfortable that central banks will continue to be ultra supportive so it's nothing has changed on all three and even when there's been some doubt like happened immediately after the fomc meeting we had top fed officials come out and say no don't worry that's why financial conditions are looser today than they were before the fomc meeting so as long as these three themes are reinforced we will continue to see this positive momentum mohammed we probably well i shouldn't say probably am i correct to think that the next issue with the fed the next time we'll be getting guidance from them is in august from jackson hole yes and the market expects that we will start getting some indications of what the tapering will look like when will it start at what pace and what comes there after i want to stress that the market has gotten very relaxed because the fed man top management is very relaxed if you actually were to look at the numbers on inflation you would start having serious doubts in your mind as to how transitory inflation is but as long as the fed believes it's transitory that is what matters for marcus you've got to listen to what the top federal officials are saying even if you disagree in the short term with with what their judgment the other thing i'd say is just when it comes to the economic growth picture we've watched flare-ups of of the pandemic uh watch new variants that have come on and watched some governments react by saying that they're going to shut things down or extend some of the conditions they already had in place the market doesn't seem bothered by that at all why do you think that is so first we are seeing things that are worrisome and they have to do with the delta variant um sydney on australia and australia has had very low infection cases put locked down the whole city for two weeks because of delta israel which has had great success on vaccination has reimposed the mosque mandate indoors the united kingdom battling um delta has had pop-up vaccination centers all over and told people you don't need to reserve just vaccinate yourself and the reason why is because delta has shown to be the most infectious of the variant now that's the bad news the good news is that vaccination has significantly weakened the link to hospitalizations and death and that's why the economic implications of the delta variant are not as worrisome as we've had in the past however if you're not vaccinated then you you're facing higher risk because of delta i know it's the unknowns that we don't know about that people always worry about what what does worry you if if we're kind of looking like it's all clear on most of the fronts you've just described what would you be on the lookout for so the market certainly believes they're all clear because the top leadership of the fed is telling us we're all clear as i've shared with you before i have concerned about the inflation story every day i see more evidence of inflation not being transitory and i have concerned that the fed is falling behind and that it may have to play catch up and history makes you very uncomfortable if if you end up in a world in which the fed has to play catch up normally we end up with a recession because you have to slam on the brakes as opposed to slowly taking your foot off the accelerator which is what i believe is going to happen but so i am worried but these are not day one issues these are down the track because we're not going to have evidence and certainly not unambiguous evidence of the nature of inflation until well towards the end of the year mohammed thank you have a great weekend we'll talk to you so