저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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1999년 클린턴 탄핵 이후 상승 종목들이 2019년 트럼프 탄핵 국면에도 유효하다는 논지. 핵심 주장: 당시 강세 종목(애플, 시스코, 월마트, 마이크로소프트, 홈디포, 퀄컴, 마이크론, 램리서치 등)의 과거 성과를 현재 투자 교훈으로 연결하며, 닷컴 붕괴로 일시 하락했어도 장기 생존 기업은 좋은 매수 기회였다고 설명. 근거 수치: 1999년 애플 약 151% 상승, 시스코 약 130%, 월마트 약 70%, 마이크로소프트 68%, 퀄컴 약 2,619%, 램리서치 500% 이상. 시스코는 현재 PER 약 14배·배당 약 3%, 월마트 2019년 대비 상승 여지 언급. 종목별 방향: 시스코·애플·마이크로소프트·램리서치·어플라이드머티리얼즈는 긍정적, 마이크로소프트 150달러대 여전히 매력, 램리서치는 고점 근처라 소폭 조정 대기 권고. 바이오젠은 알츠하이머 치료제 도박성이라 선호 낮음. 개별 질의응답: 라이트에이드는 실적 발표 앞두고 부정적, CVS 긍정(7달러대 60센트 지지 시 8달러 목표), 월그린 비추천. 화이자는 배당 인상과 꾸준함에 긍정적이나 흥분은 덜함. 록히드마틴은 한 종목 비중 42%로 과도하다며 분산 권고. 리스크/조건: 기업 생존 여부와 인내가 관건, 일부 종목은 단기 하락 가능. 특정 자산 가격 목표 직접 제시는 제한적. 출연자 전망: 탄핵 여부와 무관하게 교훈은 유효하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
this tree doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes when you bear this mortgage to the last impeachment go-round with President Clinton it's really pretty astonishing how much of what was working then it's also working now back in the 90s the late great mark Haines one of the distant amazing hosts for CNBC used to call me Reverend Jim Bob from the Church of what's happening now I love it but what was working in 1999 turned out to work for a lot longer than anyone expected even if the dot-com crash temporarily erased some of those gains Flynn was acquitted in February of 1999 so let's prune is the best performers from the major averages see if they can give us any insight into how to handle the Trump impeachment proceedings the best performance the dow jones average from 1999 wasn't in the index back then but it sure is now care to guess oh I think I replace my app with my peach Apple up 100 Wow someone gave me a new shiny one up a hundred and fifty one percent for the year of the last Senate trial of a sitting president it's that incredible this was the beginning of a much larger run led by Steve Jobs after his triumphant return in 97 no it worked back then and it works now yeah Oh Apple don't trade it please ii misinforming cisco what at that moment 1999 cisco is at the center of the internet boom they were considered to be the backbone of the entire build-out but Cisco flew way too close to the Sun back then growling 130 percent 99 and then soon fell back to earth plummeting to the single digits as its telco clients went belly-up 1999 me just kept going and going and going even today the stock still hasn't fully recovered amazing thing is that Cisco survived frankly at all now I think you're getting one of the best buying opportunities it gauges because CEO Chuck Robinson and me like to get all these numbers right CEO Chuck Robbins he while incredibly reinvents the company making cisco more of a subscription software internet-of-things play with a fantastic 5g portfolio but that's for the enterprise okay it's not right now right it's gonna be the back of the end of next year now back in 1999 interest rates were much higher not now though which is why Cisco's 3% yield here is so enticing to me their best performer was Walmart this stocks been on fire for ages it really hasn't go with the fact that it was only up 70% in 1999 gave me a terrific entry point I remember many people saying that Walmart was horrendously overvalued back then versus the fancy pants retailers where most of these rich analyst shop but I'll take Walmart's 20 to 120 run since then any day of the week we're good any day in the last 20 years you know how Facebook and alphabet are facing all sorts of government investigations right now well back then we had another software Colossus in the midst of the mother of all federal investigations United States versus Microsoft an antitrust horror show that many thought would crush the company although it still managed to rally 68% 99 I remember everything was going nuts to that period the antitrust case turned out to be a buying opportunity but only long-term as Microsoft swiftly fell from 50 to 13 when the.com bubble burst I still like Microsoft up here in the 150s such an indolent doing such a wonderful job the regulators they no longer have these guys in the crosshairs fifth is Home Depot also rallied 68% that year well that was on the way to national domination well his business never really faltered the ensuing recession caused the stock to get slammed more than a decade to recover you know what I still think the despots are cheap at 218 roughly 20 points off its high two point five percent yield now the company just stumbled because of lower guidance property that would be a blip over the long haul even as I was quite upset about it to tell you the truth sometimes you get these moments where text shines so brightly that it dominates not just not just the nasdaq-100 but also the S&P 500 and the period after the Clinton impeachment was one of those the leader Qualcomm what's rallyin astonishing and any won't believe this but yeah yeah they lived it live to be through it I lived through it that as I did it was up to six two thousand six hundred nineteen percent nineteen ninety nine that's what a three day t88 run looks like talk about a chorus this darn semiconductor stock fell to seven after that took about 20 years to get back to that lofty and definitive top Qualcomm has always been a creature of improving cell phone technology and now it's 5g that beckons with the stock selling for 14 times earnings sporty and almost 3 percent yield this makes no sense to me I think the stock should be much higher especially for that terrific quarter that move which of course is micron just reported this evening SNB second best performer in 99 I was very sign up 1192 percent which made perfect sense because it's a domain registration company and there was a domain name go rush back then guess what there still is one now and first nights got also say ancillary businesses they reinvented themselves terrific returns stock be that close to 260 in 2000 and crashed to the ceiling Vegas during the collapse but like Cisco it stayed in business even if it took the stock 20 years to fully recover to those levels let me give you another one third-best performed the SP in 1999 lam research for CS of more than 500 percent I like to semiconductor capital equipment make her back when I was a hedge fund manager and I don't like it again now even as its up more than 100 percent for 2019 one of the best performers in the S&P what's the secret sauce here lamb dominates this industry along with Applied Materials which is one reason it never really got crushed during the dot-com collapse I think it's actually got more room to run here eva's it's only a few points from the high but this one I mean how can you not wait for at least a tad of a pullback the rest of the winners 1999 that are still kicking they remain intriguing here but not as Bible nasdaq-100 of number four checkpoints software a version of cybersecurity that I'm just okay with number five Biogen you're taking a flyer there on Alzheimer's treatment with that one I prefer other drug stocks because the binary nature of that company's prospects oh and let's say I'm with the curious oddity this morning my colleague David Faber talked extensively about how DISH Network's Charlie Ergen is trying to buy some assets that need to be divested before Sprint and t-mobile can get regulatory federal rates or approval to merge this wants to build out a national 5g network which could cost billions and billions of dollars early testified yesterday that he has 10 billion in financing lined up to make it happen back in 1999 dish was a great growth company the stock was a boom 76% but like so many others in the telco and transmission space it's not crash back to earth in 2000 it's a fourteen years to rebound to its old highs me I'm a their own ATT with more than five percent yield ER or t-mobile which will have good growth even if the spring keel gets blocked by various states Attorney General who definitely wanted spite you don't my takeaway is we keep thinking about how hard it is to own tackle all of us you me you know it is art many of those winners from ninety nine collapse soon after the post impeachment rally but the bottom line for the companies that survived in most cases the dot-com crash it proved to be an excellent buying opportunity the whole point it you need to be patient with some not all and impeachment or no impeachment I think that lesson still holds true today let's take calls go to Bill in New York bill hey Jim thank you so much for taking my call of course I've been watching yourself for about ten years when I first started investing when I was 22 Thank You huge felt with everything you needed doing your team doing this no I mean you're a champ thank you long day really appreciate it what's up absolutely so I bought you made it Reynolds about a year and a half at what I thought was a pull back from its eyes unfortunately the stock continued to trade down it's been on a big run for the last three months but I'm curious if you think it's going to go a little bit higher or if this is my plan to get out and put my money somewhere else I am boss in the US economy ever since the Fed cut rates URI is a definitive play on the US economy does have some well exposure which I'm not crazy about I think you're fine but I would take some off the table we just had a gigantic run and I know that Bulls make money Bears make money I'll sue Jersey Alex hey how's it going Jim hey Alex how are you I'm doing good thank you for asking I want to get your opinion on something if you got a minute sure so the stock its earnings are coming out tomorrow right and with two failed mergers stores closing and Amazon getting into this space now the pharmaceutical space his Rite Aid's worth looking at or would you recommend something like CVS or Walgreens no I don't know maybe I'm not being definitive enough how about absolutely no how about no chance now sometimes it just happens CVS is much better don't do not buy Walgreens what we's doesn't really have it together I'll my travel trust in CVS you mean all about it because we are an actions + calm stop at 74 you right now it's gonna turn 7 bucks 60 give it a test give it an 8 multiply think that's really reasonable you still got another 12 13 points ago so let's buy see hey by the way I'm gonna throw in CBS CBS 5 comma CBS that's a twofer that's a twofer alright let's go to steve-o in Dallas cotton country oh by the way tak Prescott mm-hmm maybe maybe not Steve and South Dakota Steve yes you're right you got to you guys got a great tight end from here so with Pfizer Barron's just posted something a few days ago they met they were talking about their top 10 stocks for 2020 and they named Pfizer as one of them they also just increased their dividend a few days ago about a 3/8 now my only concern with Pfizer is you you've seen some other big farmers like like first of Myers Squibb Lilly they've their stocks appreciated quite a bit lately whereas Pfizer's just kind of instruct in the sand what do you think on that's fine that is what five fives are you Steve it is slow its steady but it does win some races not all I'm okay with 5s or Christian to you I'm okay with Pfizer not crazy about it but ok with it I like all this more I'm going to Mike in Oregon Mike hey Jim Cramer booyah player again go Doug I like the ducks here what's up oh hey I've got a concern about Lockheed Martin why I've been you know I I've worked for Lockheed for 34 years I've been buying it since I was 25 loaded up my II sauce and consistently it keeps overwhelming my portfolio and now I'm 66 and retired and again it is overwhelming my portfolio and my money manager is saying what do you want to do I'm at 42% and he and I'm debating whether I should turn back Mike when you told me that number I'm gonna have to side with your money manager it's not really sighs I work closely with everybody that is a little too much particularly at your age which by the way I regard is very young and think you should come out of retirement so I don't feel so bad but I do think that Lockheed Martin is a very good stock you've worked at a great company on congratulations but you own too much of it versus the rest of your portfolio back to the fight all right history often rhymes stay patient now much more Mad Money ed couldn't update on where we are this impeachment process with CNBC's own a man a man jabbers now Eamonn may not understand the concept of the eat a peach but you know what I have a big woman brothers fan from way back then that wasn't the only story that dominated the market today I'm breaking down FedEx's latest Ernie's telling you where to go from here ough I go
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