저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주택 데이터와 기업 실적 등 경제 지표가 개선되고 있으므로 경기 침체 우려는 과도하며 경기는 건강한 확장 국면이다. 주택 지표: 주택 착공 허가 건수가 12년 만에 최고치를 기록했다. 인구 증가 대비 아직 과거 수준을 회복한 정도라고 평가했으며, 주택 관련 서비스 경제 전반에 긍정적이라고 주장했다. 기업 사례: 캐터필러는 과거 부실 인수를 피하고 주주환원을 하는 기업으로 평가했다. 넷플릭스는 해외 가입자 9천만 명 이상으로 좋은 성과를 냈다고 언급했다. 테슬라는 기본적 체력이 강하다고 평가했다. 블랙스톤의 파이프라인 기업 인수, 메이시스·콜스 등 유통주, 베드배스앤비욘드, 보잉 737 맥스 생산 중단 소식에도 주가가 크게 떨어지지 않은 점을 들어 시장이 좋은 뉴스에 민감하다고 설명했다. 금융주: 은행주는 평균 이상 배당과 낮은 주가수익비율을 근거로 여전히 싸다고 주장했다. 전력주: PPL은 4.59% 배당을 주는 좋은 기업으로 긍정적으로 언급했다. 바이오주: 일라이 릴리는 올해 초 크게 하락했으나 2020년 예상 이익 상향 소식 이후 재점검할 시점이라고 언급했다. 투기적 바이오주 사례도 다뤘다. 리스크 및 조건: 명시적 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않았으며, 과열 우려에 대해서는 부정적 시각을 보였다. 출연자 전망: 경기는 침체가 아니라 건강한 확장 국면이며 과도하게 비관할 필요가 없다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Go home, have money. Welcome. Okay, Mark, I'll see you. See me, or tweet me at @JimKramer.
Bears refuse to acknowledge that we've learned our lessons from the Great Recession. Yet a whole generation of people did realize it. You shouldn't take on too much debt. You should live within your means. You shouldn't recklessly flip houses or create obtuse financial instruments no one can understand. We've got a... (수정: 원문 오류로 부분 확인 어려움) — people got it through their thick heads that it's a bad idea to take out loans you'll never be able to repay if the underlying asset drops big in price, and it's an even worse idea for banks to write those kinds of loans. This is just a fact. We got more frugal in this country. We got less reckless. We got more prudent, the same way my parents' generation learned not to trust banks for decades after the Great Depression. Listen to me, it did happen.
Yesterday, for the averages, the Dow gained 31 points, the S&P 500 inched up 0.3%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.1%. Everybody seems to recognize this. Human behavior is changing. Everybody except the bearish Armageddon-ists and their saturnine fellow travelers refuses to believe that people can learn from their mistakes. That's why they think this whole recovery and this whole stock market is a sham, some puffed-up Federal Reserve drama, and they're waiting for the slump to come back.
Ten years ago, everything went right, yet it feels to me like something good happens in this economy every single day, and it's ignored or judged negatively. For example, this morning we got a housing permit number that was the highest in 12 years. The moment the news broke, my Twitter feed was exploding with people predicting this is a sign we're about to repeat the housing crisis. It was an insanely negative, irrational judgment. I didn't see anyone point out that thank heavens the Fed was able to reverse the bean-in... (수정: 원문 불명확) — the boost it gave the economy a year ago. I don't know a soul who noted it was good news, because housing punches above its weight. This strength will benefit not just the homebuilders and the lumber companies but also retailers, not to mention everyone in the housing-related service economy: brokers, lawyers, accountants, the people who do title work. This number is a huge force multiplier. It's not a sign that we're headed for another recession. For heaven's sake, it's a sign that we've finally, finally, finally recovered from the last one.
When the Great Recession started, we had 300 million people living in this country. Now we have around 329 million. Wouldn't you expect housing to be booming? But housing permits are merely back to where they were when we had 300 million people. That's after a prolonged period of relatively little new building. I mean, that's pathetic considering our population growth. But people are prudent. People are staying at home, not buying, and not taking on debt until they have enough money. They won't return to their parents' couch. Don't try to overthink this economy. Good news is actually good news, not a sign that things have gotten overheated and the end is nigh.
And look, it's not just housing. Today Caterpillar's management rang the bell. They came down for their 90th anniversary. I technically... (수정: 원문 불명확) — a decade ago, the old Caterpillar was what I call a sink-or-swim affair. The company was busy making ill-advised acquisitions, like Bucyrus, a mining equipment maker. The new Cat would never do such a dumb deal. CEO Jim Umpleby runs a lean and balanced business: a good balance sheet, no longer hostage to China, and it consistently returns cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Cat learned from the Great Recession. They're not going to overreach for the stars only to find the fault is indeed in themselves.
Let's go there. Let's go to Netflix and Tesla, the two most despised stocks by the ones who hate them, the ones who throw up and call out for lousy valuations. For months we've heard Netflix's domestic sign-ups have been weakening. We saw all sorts of surveys about how this company will be the big loser with so many competitors launching new streaming services. But today we learned Netflix has more than 90 million subscribers outside the US and Canada. They've done a brilliant job of creating regional content that's beloved by people all over the world. So maybe Netflix is going to be fine, maybe much better than you think.
Tesla, the electric car maker, has been getting some accolades from former bears lately, because it's so far ahead of the competition on electrification. People like their cars, and its solar rooftop panels turn out to be a good business in the end. Tesla's an auto company, and the stock has been boring lately because it's a good automaker, not because of Elon Musk's braggadocious tweets, but on extremely strong fundamentals and the possibility of some very big earnings not that far from now.
What else? Why does no one seem to care about the super-smart people at Blackstone just putting Tallgrass Energy, a lousy pipeline company, into play? Maybe they saw some value: a 10% yield on an $86 pipeline stock. Pipeline stocks have been total dogs for ages. I mean horrible. And Tallgrass isn't even one of the best pipes, running from Ohio to Wyoming to Cushing, Oklahoma. No, thanks.
But maybe there's hope for this disastrous group that so many rich people have given up on. We've watched the stocks of Macy's and Kohl's languish at low levels, bear after bear pounding them into submission. Why? How about this: maybe because the consumer is so strong, they're even shopping at those joints. And by the way, remember that Kohl's thing where you can return something to Kohl's and it goes back to Amazon? No, no, people don't want to focus on that. What I want to focus on is how bad FedEx keeps being. That's what they want, bad news, bears. Hold on a second, bad news bears. There you go.
Well, you know, it doesn't even care that we got a phase one trade deal with China that ratchets down the tariff scimitars. The same goes for even the bedraggled Bed Bath & Beyond. I actually saw people shopping there. The new CEO, Mark Tritton, booming many of the old executives, today the stock goes up 11%. Maybe the best buy is safe after all.
Finally, you know what irritates the bear goodness out of most? Banks. Yeah, those dastardly banks. Their stocks keep hitting new highs as people tiptoe into those stocks with above-average dividends and below-average price-to-earnings multiples. They're cheap valuations, an extended hangover from the Great Recession. The bears need Senator Elizabeth Warren to own more stock so she can blow it out. Not she, whatever. Anyway, all right.
It's not just that there's so much good news. Even the bad news doesn't seem to matter to this market. We just found out Boeing is going to stop production of the 737 MAX, because they're not allowed to sell them until the planes are certified. Over and over again we were told this would be horrible, horrible for the economy. So how much was Boeing stock down? 15%? How about the fact that the stock was flat? Yep.
Instead of fretting about how we could be headed for another recession, we need to understand that we're really only now crawling out of the long national nightmare that was the Great Recession. It takes a long time to put that kind of dislocation behind you. But even as things keep getting better, the bears refuse to believe it either. They can't accept that people are more prudent than they were a decade ago. Maybe they hate President Trump so much they want a recession so he won't be reelected. There are always partisans who don't want to believe the data. But whether you love Trump or you hate him, and I bet you do one or the other, there's no denying the data is good, and it keeps getting better.
Bottom line: you've got to stop looking at positive data and assuming it means the economy is slumping and the world is coming to an end, like it's some sort of Stephen King novel. Remember the one where the earth keeps getting chewed up and the only place left is Maine? Anyway, we know what a peak looks like. We almost got one a year ago when the Fed ratcheted up interest rates. Rookie Powell, nice guy, they say. No, this is a healthy expansion, even if the Armageddon-ists simply refuse to believe it.
You know what we should do? Let's go to Norman in California. Norman, Louie, I am Boyet. Norman, as you know, PPL provides power to areas of Pennsylvania and Kentucky and to almost 8 million customers in the UK. When the Conservatives won the UK election last week, PPL's share price rose sharply and hit a 52-week high today. In light of these developments, as well as issues related to coal, how do you see the future of the PPL share price? Well, the fact I used to pay them fortunes, you know, what I like about PPL, I mean, it yields 4.59%. It's a good company. I've been watching it. By the way, that's a quote, futility, but I'm fine with PPL.
All right, now people listen to me. Maybe I am too impassioned, maybe I'm not passionate enough. This is a healthy expansion. Please, don't overthink this economy. Don't let the haters tell you otherwise. Stop going into my Twitter feed, you people who graduated from the Kellogg School of Business or wherever, telling me that's bad when it's good. Oh man, it's right.
Eli Lilly was extremely beaten down earlier this year. Remember, it was at 70, and everyone gave up on it. But with news that it now expects higher-than-expected profit for 2020, this is time to circle back to the stock. I'm talking to the CEO of... (수정: 원문 불명확) 그리고 지금 시장이 사상 최고치를 찍는 가운데 아직 싸게 살 종목이 있는지, 차트에서 올라가는 종목과 어제 하루 55% 떨어진 종목이 투기성 바이오주 투자의 좋은 사례가 될 수 있는지 살펴보겠습니다. 이 말을 듣기 전에는 움직이지 마세요. Mad Money는 cnbc.com에서 보실 수 있습니다.
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