Bill Ackman's SECRET Formula to Get Rich in Stocks

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워런 버핏·벤저민 그레이엄 가치투자 원칙을 소개하는 교육 영상. 주식 가치는 미래 현금흐름의 현재가치이며, 단기 주가는 투표기계, 장기는 저울에 비유. 가치 산정 예시(레모네이드 가게: EPS 성장률 10%, PER 20배, 요구수익률 15%로 현재 적정가 약 130달러 도출 후 안전마진 50%로 65달러 매수). 안전마진의 중요성과 독점적 경쟁우위(해자)를 강조하며, 치포틀레 사례로 일시적 위기로 저평가된 우량주 매수를 설명. 치포틀레를 2016년 애크먼이 매수한 뒤 8년간 약 6.5배 수익이라고 언급.

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01. hey Bill lman a billionaire and Top Value investor recently shared his five key principles for successful stock market investing in an interview you need to hear what he's about to say because it's almost guaranteed to make you a better investor and help you make more money so let's dive in bacman currently manages almost 11 billion invested in seven stocks in a recent interview on The Lex fredman podcast explain his investing process in a clear easy to understand way his investment approach is based on five key principles with the first one focusing on the difference between price and value in your lecture on the basics of finance and investing you uh mentioned a book intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life what key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing sure actually it was the first investment book I read and uh as such it was kind of the inspiration for my career a lot of my life so important book you know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression people lost confidence investing in markets World War II and then he writes this book it's for like the average man and basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value right price is what you pay value is what you get and he said the stock market is here to serve you right and it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every every day and makes you an offer for your house makes you a stupid offer you ignore it uh makes you a great offer you can take it and that's the stock market and the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it he talked about the difference between you said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine it represents speculative interests you know supply and demand of people uh in the shortterm but in the long term it's the stock market's a weighing machine you know much more accurate it's going to tell you what something worth and so if you can Define what something's worth then you can really take advantage of the market because it's really here to to help you and that's kind of the message of the book in that same way there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing yeah speculation is just a bit like buying trading uh crypto right you're strong words well uh short-term trading crypto maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value but uh the you know it's many investors you know in a bubble going into the you know the the crash uh were really just pure speculators they didn't know what things were worth they just knew they were going up right that's speculation this is how things usually go many people see booking stock price at $4,200 and think it's more expensive than Airbnb stocks at $150 this is not investing because just looking at the stock price or comparing two companies prices doesn't show you which one is expensive or not to know if a stock is expensive you need to compare it with your estimated value of the stock if after your research you estimate that booking stocks is worth $8,000 but it's only priced at $4,200 then the stock is cheap and undervalued if you estimate that Airbnb stocks is worth $70 but it's selling for $150 then the stock is expensive and overvalued once you know the value of the stock you want to buy you are in a good position to take advantage of the market fluctuations for every person buying a stock there is someone selling it in the short term a Stock's price is often influenced by the emotions of sellers and buyers in the long run as Warren buett famously said if a business does well the stock eventually follows if you buy wonderful companies for less than they are worth and keep them long term you put the odds in your favor of making money by taking advantage of those inefficiencies as an investor your main job is to figure out the value of a stock if you are not experienced in valuing a company you might be asking okay Frenchie this makes sense but how do I value a company let's hear what akman has to say about this investing uh is you know doing your homework uh digging down understanding a business understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry understanding what Management's going to do understanding what price you're going to pay you know the value of anything thing I would say uh other than love let's say uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life now some people think about love that way but it's not it's not the right way to think about love but it's um yeah so investing is about basically building a a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime so how do you get to that this idea of called value investing how do you get to the value of a thing even like philosophically value of anything really but we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market sure companies the value of a security the value uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life so if you think about a bond a bond you know pays a 5% coupon interest rate you get that let's say every year or twice a year split and half and it's very predictable and if it's a US Government Bond you know you're going to get it so that's a pretty easy thing to value a stock is an interest in a business it's like owning a piece of a company and a business a profitable one is like a bond and that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow you know every year the difference with uh a stock and a bond is that uh the bond it's a contract you know what you're going to get as long as they don't go bankrupt in default with the stock you have to make predictions about the business you know how many widgets they going to sell this year how many going to sell next year uh what are their costs going to be how much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going going um and uh that's more complicated um but you know what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time and there very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about as a result you know many Investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future so we what we do for a living what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're going to look like over a very long period of time as an investor the key question you are trying to answer when valuing your business is what amount should I invest today for the money I'll get in the future based on my assumptions on the estimated performance of the business your job is to picture a company's future value then to figure out what that value is worth today based on the money you want to make from owning this stock you start by asking yourself if the company's profit Grows by x% each year for the next 10 years how much can I expect to sell the business for in 2034 assuming it's 2024 the EXP person growth you estimate is based on your understanding of the business its competitive advantage and the management team's ability to use that Advantage once you estimate the business earnings in 2034 you apply the multiple you believe the business could be sold for businesses are usually sold based on a multiple of their earnings if if your favorite Kebab shop makes $10,000 in annual profit and you want to buy it the owner might agree to sell it for 10 times its earnings which would be $100,000 this multiple is called the price to earnings ratio or p ratio once you estimate how much you could sell the business for in 10 years you work backyard to find its current value based on the annual return you want each year from the stock let's use a lemonade stand and calculates its value let's assume that the lemonade stand has earnings per share of $10 earnings per share or EPS is the company's total earnings divided by the number of shares available for the public to buy the lemonade stand earns $1,000 per year and has 100 shares so its EPS is $10 you know the lemonade stand is in a great location near a sport center and a second Sport Center is opening soon which will drive up lemonade demand you are also aware that the owners make such great lemonade that people travel from 10 kilom away to buy it all this makes you believe that the lemonade stand has a strong durable competitive advantage and can sustain a 10% earnings growth each year for the next 10 years this lead you to an EPS of about $26 per share in 2034 the next question is how many times its profit the lemonade stand could be sold for in 2034 in the stock market there is a long-standing relationship between a company's growth rate and its price to earning ratio for public companies those usually end up being roughly double twice the growth rate is usually a good estimate for the PE Ratio so you apply a 20 PE ratio which is your 10% growth rate multiplied by two and this give you a future stock price of about $520 for the lemonade stand in 2034 for you then ask yourself how much should I pay for the stock today to get a 15% return each year assuming the stock price will be about $520 in 2034 this is what we call the minimum acceptable rate of return or the mar it's how much annual return you require for every year your money is tied up in this investment applying a 15% Mar to the $520 stock price in 2034 gives you an estimated value of about $130 per share in 2024 you won't buy the lemonade stand at this price because you need to account for potential mistakes in your analysis and protect yourself every Market valuation is just a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow and sometimes your story might be wrong this brings us to the firstent of bakman which is the margin of safety you can't get to a precise view of value you can get to an approximation and the key is the to buy at a price that represents a big discount to that approximation and that gets back to Ben Graham Ben Graham was about what he called uh invented this concept of margin of safety right you want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay it's about investing a big part of investing is not losing money if you can avoid losing money and then have a few great hits you can do very very well over time paying a price that provides you a huge margin of safety is the key to surviving in the stock market if we go back to the example of the lemonade stand you wouldn't buy it stocks at about $130 in 2024 based on your estimation of its value you will buy it at half the price around $65 giving you a 50% margin of safety this provides a buffer protect you from losing money if your assumption about the comp comp's value is wrong the reason it's key to buy a stock at a price that protects you from losing money is because your losses have a bigger impact on your portfolio than your wins if you buy a stock at $100 and it falls by 50% you are left with $50 and to get back to your $100 from $50 you need the 100% gain the best quote that highlights the concept of margin of safety is from Warren Buffett the best investor in the world when you build a bridge you insist that it can carry 30,000 but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it and that same principle Works in investing I recently made a video about Buffett's best quotes and if you interested about it you can find it in the description to nail your estimate of the company's future value you need to clearly understand the factors that will influence its growth rate this is the fourth point of bacman what are the factors that indicate that a company is something is going to be something that's going to make a lot of money it's going to have a lot of value and it's going to be reliable over a long period of time and what is your process of figuring out whether a company is or isn't that so every consumer has a view on different brands and different companies and you know what we look for are sort these non-d disruptable businesses a business where you can kind of close your eyes stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's going to be a more valuable more profitable company the key to finding a non disruptable business is the company's competitive advantage to find the company's competitive Advantage put yourself in the shoes of a customer and ask why they choose company a instead of Company B to solve their problem for example if a customer shops at LI or alga instead of w Foods in the US Aris Farm in Australia or weight frow in the UK okay you might conclude that this customer buys at LI or ald because he wants to eat cheaply as opposed to eat qualitatively so this customer chooses little or ALG because they offer the best value for money for the items in needs compared to other stores to project those companies earnings growth for the next 10 years you will then ask yourself how durable is their competitive Advantage you might conclude that Li and LD are so big that they have significant bargaining power with suppliers allowing them to get products cheaper and sell them at lower prices than their competitors this conclusion will then support the earnings growth potential you believe they can achieve over the next 10 years at this stage you might be thinking how you could buy a wonderful company with a durable competitive Advantage for 50% less than its value other investors are not likely to offer deals like that this leads us to amman's fifth principle about Market deficiencies he explains through his investment in Chipotle the largest stock in his portfolio how to find great companies for less than their worth so in the case of Chipotle for example by the way I could talk about Chipotle all day I just love it I love it I wish there was a sponsor uh I'll mention it to the CEO don't make promises you can't keep Bill I'm not making can't Brian Nichols is a fantastic CEO he's not gonna spend one dollar that he doesn't think is the company's best interest all right all I want is free Chipotle come on now uh what was I saying oh and so you look at a company like Chipotle and then you see there's a difficult moment in its history like you said that uh there was a food safety issue and then you say okay well I see a path where we can fix this and therefore even though the price is low we can get it to where the price goes up to its value MH so the kind of business we're looking for is sort of the kind of business everyone should be looking for right a great business it's got a long-term trajectory of growth out into the for you know even beyond the foreseeable distance right those are the kind of businesses you want to own you want businesses that generate a lot of cash you want businesses you can easily understand you want businesses with these sort of huge barriers to entry where it's difficult for others to compete you want companies that don't have to constantly raise Capital um and these are some of the great businesses of the world but people have figured out that those are the great businesses so the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business so we we can't earn the kind of returns we want to earn for investors by paying a really high price price matters a lot you can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns so we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or they or youve a company that's kind of lost its way but it's recoverable and that's we buy from shareholders who are disappointed who've lost confidence selling at a low price relative to what it's worth if fixed and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company to make money in the stock market you need to become good at spotting those inefficiency and taking advantage of them they do exist and the market offers them if you are patient and ready to invest aggressively when they show up if you had invested $10,000 in Chipotle when Amman bought it in 2016 your investment would be worth $65,000 today which is an amazing investment return in 8 years this is it for today guys if you like this video feel free to drop a like and if you want to receive more contents like this feel free to subscribe thank you all and peace out