저자: InvestingWithTheFrenchy채널진행자 · 외국인
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버핏·멍거의 분산투자 비판을 근거로, 소수 종목 집중 포트폴리오가 위험을 줄이고 수익률과 노력 대비 효율을 높인다는 주장. 결론: 개인 투자자는 10개 미만의 소수 우량 기업에 집중 투자하는 것이 합리적이라는 견해. 분산투자 비판: 분산은 무지에 대한 보호일 뿐이며, 잘 아는 2~3개 종목이 더 낫다고 주장. 분산은 평균 수익으로 이어진다는 논리. 위험 개념: 변동성은 장기 투자자에게 위험이 아니며, 영구적 자본 손실이 진짜 위험이라고 정의. 손실 후 회복 필요 수익률이 커지므로 사업을 이해하지 못하면 손실 위험이 커진다고 설명. 집중 투자 효과: 종목 수가 제한되면 더 선별적으로 고르게 되고, 최선의 아이디어에 큰 비중을 실어 자금 배분이 효율적이 된다는 주장. 버핏의 '순자산 10% 베팅' 언급. 비유: 프랑스 축구 리그 예시로 승리 팀에 베팅하는 비유를 들어 집중의 효과를 설명. 통계 인용: 멍거가 추천한 책의 연구를 근거로 15종목 포트폴리오는 시장을 이길 확률이 약 1/4, 250종목은 약 1/15이라고 주장. 노력 대비 결과: 종목 수가 적을수록 리서치와 모니터링 부담이 줄어 노력 대비 성과가 높아진다고 주장. 마무리: 스티브 잡스의 '집중은 No를 말하는 것'이라는 발언을 인용하며 집중의 가치를 강조. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
guys how many stocks do you need to have in your portfolio if you ask to 10 different investors you have 10 different answers let me give you mine in this video so let's dive in diversification is a word that we hear every time in the investing world and many believe that this is the only way to protect yourself against risk however when we listen to warren buffett and charlie munger is business partner that many consider as clever as him diversification is a protection against ignorance and makes very little sense in wealth management a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they're investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five i regard this as insanity to absolute insanity i find it much easier to find four or five investments where i have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they're way above average i think it's much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred i think the people who argue for all this diversification by the way i call it divorcification and which i copied from somebody and and i'm way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which i think i know something about and where i think i have an advantage as a small investor if we are interested about above average results should we avoid putting all our eggs in one basket or should we put our eggs in one basket and watch that basket and i believe that it makes more sense to have a focused portfolio which means less than 10 stocks if you are a small investor that is investing in individual companies and there are really three key reasons that make me believe that way the first reason and it will be surprising to you is because it actually limits your risk the second reason is because your money works more aggressively for you and the third and final reason is because it makes your workload more manageable and maximizes your effort to result ratio let's go through each of those points one by one to get them better diversification says that spreading your investments across different industries that have low connections to one another reduces price volatility the idea is that if you mix things up you are less likely to experience big drops because as some industries might go down others might go up and this provides a more consistent overall portfolio performance however volatility does not equal risk for long-term and value investors when you know what you own a down market is something really good because it gives you the opportunity to buy wonderful companies for less than they are worth while volatility is not risk a down stock that could hit the ground is something that you should be concerned about because risk comes from a permanent loss of capital a permanent loss of capital is when you lose the money that you initially invested because in investing your losses have a bigger impact on your portfolio than your wins for example if you have 100 dollars and you lose half of it 50 you will need to make a 100 percent return from your 50 dollars to to get back to your 100 dollars and this could happen easily if you do not understand the business in which you put your money in unfortunately diversification greatly increases the chances that you will put your money in something that you do not know enough about managing your risk in investing often relates to what do you have instead of how many do you have the only way to avoid permanent loss of capital is to buy wonderful companies pay them less than they are worth and keep them for a long period of time in addition of properly managing your risk a focused portfolio will increase the productivity of your invested dollars when you know that you can only have 10 stocks in your portfolio it pushes you to be more selective if you are more selective with your picks you will most probably raise the qualitative criteria by which you will select your stocks and being selective will enable you to allocate your money wisely because your dollars will be put on your best ideas one buffet often says that with each investment you make you should have the courage to put at least 10 percent of your net worth in that stock because the best way to fast-track your wealth creation is to put big bets on your best investing ideas and when you do so you concentrate your money in companies that have the highest probability of delivering above average performance to provide you an example from real life let's look at the french soccer league i know that many of my friends won't like this example but this is the best i found let's say that we are in 2010 and you have to pick the teams that will win the league the most during the next 10 years each time you bet for the right team on any single year you make money when we look at the winners from 2010 to 2020 why would it make sense to bet on other teams than psg if you are really serious about making money i hope that this example helps you to better understand my point investment portfolios that obtain the highest returns for investors are often not widely diversified those with investment concentrated in few companies are better at building wealth because diversification often equals average results if your portfolio cannot really go down if you are diversified it cannot really go up as well in investing people would often assess their performance by comparing how well they did against the market a study from the book the one benefit portfolio that charlie munger recommended shows that if you have a 15 stock portfolio you have one in a four chances to beat the market but if you have 250 stocks in your portfolio your chances are one in 15.
the ride will be bumpy if you have few stocks but you need to cope with this bumpiness because in the long run your portfolio performance will more than compensate any market fluctuations in addition to creating above average results honing few stocks will also enable you to have fewer headaches because your workload will be more manageable and you will be in a position to maximize your effort to raise ratio the more companies you have the more time you will devote on research and monitoring those stocks by increasing your workload diversification could put more pressure on you if you are conducting your investment practice on your own on a part-time basis you have limited time and efforts as a small investor using your time and efforts efficiently is key to your future investing success having less than 10 stocks in your portfolio will maximize your effort to result ratio all investment portfolios require some time and some efforts to research companies and monitor them each of this time and efforts will bring different results if you want to be efficient i do believe that your investment portfolio should require you the minimum time and efforts and produce the maximum results for you having a small number of outstanding businesses that will do well in the future is the only way to achieve that before to conclude i would like to show you a short video clip of someone that highly contributed in creating the devices that you are probably using to watch this video i'm talking about steve jobs and he was the best to embody this idea of focus in the business world focus is about saying no and the result of that focus is going to be some really great products where the total is much greater than the sum of the parts this is it for today guys i hope you liked this video if this is the case feel free to drop a like and if you want to receive more contents like this feel free to subscribe thank you all see you next time and peace out
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