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Five of the six stocks on my watchlist fell at the close of trading. And the number behind this is 10. Not $10, but 10 percent. Stay with me until the end of this video, because this one number is both an argument for and an argument against. And at the end of the video you will see both sides very clearly.
Today I will analyze six stocks . Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, a South Korean chip manufacturer. Then come AMD, Western Digital, and Seagate. Six shares. For each one, you will receive arguments for and against and real numbers. What's happening today? By the end of this video, you will have a pretty clear understanding.
And you will be able to make your own decisions about the shares. So if you look at this chart at the close on October 13th, Micron was down 3.6%. SK Hynix— by 3.19%. Western Digital—by almost 2%. Seagate is up almost 1%, while SanDisk is almost unchanged. And he fully recovered. Only AMD ended the day in the " green zone", gaining almost 2%.
If it helps you navigate better, liking and subscribing only take 2 seconds and prompt YouTube to show this video to more investors. So, who is pushing these stocks? The first pressure comes from China. CXMT is a Chinese memory chip manufacturer, and it is growing rapidly. If you look at this graph, in the second quarter of 2025, CXMT held 4% of the global DRAM market.
By the first quarter of 2026, it was already 8%. Today it is 10%. According to Counterpoint Research , the leaders in scale are: Samsung holds 38%. SK Hynix — another 25%, and Micron — 24%. CXMT then announced the 4F cell design. Modern chips use 6F. Smaller cells allow more memory to fit on each wafer, which means cheaper chips.
So, this is an argument against. First, CXMT increased its share 2.5 times in just 1 year. And second, cheaper Chinese supplies could lower prices for everyone . What are the arguments "for" ? First, CXMT's share is still only 10%, while the top three hold about 87%. Secondly, the announced design is not yet production volumes.
Third, Micron and SK Hynix are trading at only 5.6 –3.6 forecast earnings. So, doubts are already built into the price, but China is just one pressure factor. How does the bond market affect this trade? And now the part that no one wants to talk about out loud. The 10-year Treasury yield just hit 5.24—the highest level since 2002.
If you look at this graph for July 14, it was 4.57. Then September 5, 18-25 and October 5, 24-9 . And today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the September CPI report comes out . They predict overall inflation of about 3.6%, and core inflation at 0.2% per month. The market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike on October 28 at approximately 17-22%.
What are the arguments of the "bears" in this situation? First, higher returns make each AI data center more expensive to finance. Second, a hot CPI report increases the chances of a rate hike. Third, AMD, at 53.5 times forward earnings, has the greatest chance of losing. Now, what are the arguments of the "bulls"?
First, a moderate CPI can reduce profitability quite quickly. Second, memory stocks with forward multiples of 3.6–6.9 have already absorbed a lot of losses. But then the number appeared on October 8, which hit all six at once. What was that? A viewer asked me about this a week ago in our previous videos.
He asked, " Bera, is this AI trend finally over?" Let me show you the numbers behind this fear. On October 8, a report stated that OpenAI's annual revenue at the end of September was only $15 billion. The previously widely quoted figure was $68–70 billion . If you look at this chart: SanDisk is down almost 5%, Micron is down another five, SK Hynix is down four and a half, Seagate is down 4 %, AMD is down almost 4%, and Western Digital is down 3%.
Each of them — because OpenAI is a huge buyer of chips, storage, and servers for all this AI. What are the arguments of the "bears" ? A gap of 18–20 billion is a lot. The bulls' argument is that , first, later reports indicated that the gap was related to income calculation methods. Secondly, Bloomberg reported 70 billion or more by December 31.
Now let me show you the stock that needs to prove its mettle the most. How cheap can a stock get before it turns into a trap? Which brings us to Micron, because Micron closed at $953, down almost 3.6%. If you look at this chart, the 52-week high was $1,255 on June 25th. So, Micron fell about 24%. It has been losing ground for four sessions in a row and is now about 12% below its October 7 close at $1,088.
What are the bullish arguments for Micron? First, the average analyst price target is $1,560, which is 64% higher than the current price. Second, Rosenblatt has a “buy” rating with a target price of $1,900. And number three, Micron is trading at only 5.6 forward earnings. The price has dropped , which makes me more inclined to buy the stock, but I'll wait.
Before I go any further, I'll say that I run my own YouTube portfolio. And participants see exactly what I buy, sell, and monitor. If you want to join, click the Join button below this video after subscribing, or you can join me directly on Finance with Vera. And remember, this is not . Now let's get back to the bearish scenario for Micron.
So for Micron, the number one bearish scenario is that such cheap stocks mean the market believes earnings have peaked. Number two, Micron owns 24% of the DRAM market, so it is the first to feel pressure from CXMT. Number three, the next earnings reports won't be until sometime between December 19th and 23rd , right in the middle of the holiday season.
Now, SanDisk has fallen almost 37%. Is this a good offer or a caveat? Which brings us to SanDisk itself, as they closed today at $1,482. Down almost 0.3%. Their 52- week high was at 2354. So, they are 37 % below the peak. If you look at this chart in the window, the high was at $1887 from September 22nd.
The bullish scenario is quite simple. Number one, the average analyst price target is $2,100, which is 46 % above the current price. Number two, the forward earnings multiple is only 6.9, and number three, earnings reports are coming out on October 29th, which is a clear catalyst. Then we also have to change the vector and move to a bearish scenario for SanDisk.
Number one, options are predicting a move of about 11% either way after this report. Number two, stocks that have fallen nearly 37% could continue to fall. Number three, they fell almost 5% on October 8th, the most of all six stocks we look at in this video. The next company is not American, but South Korean.
You guessed it, it's SK Hynix, a South Korean memory manufacturer. And its ADRs are traded in the US . It closed at $157 today . It fell by almost 3.19%. If you look at this chart, ADRs peaked at $198 on September 9th, which represents a 21% loss in just one month . In July the price was $149 . So, it is only 5% above this level.
What is the bullish scenario for this? First, the average target price is $252, which is 60% higher than the current one. Second, Barclays is forecasting $330 for this stock. Third, the forward yield is only 3.57%—the cheapest of all six stocks in this video. What is the " bearish" scenario? A 21% drop in one month.
Secondly, the company has 25% of the DRAM market, so CXMT directly affects it. Third, the earnings report will be around November 13, which is still a month away. And AMD is the opposite story: almost 33% growth and the only winner. So, is the holiday over? After all, AMD closed at $605, up almost 2% , the only "green" name today.
If you look at this chart, the high was $650 on October 6th. And AMD grew by 33% in just 6 weeks. And at a price of $605, it is only 6.8% below that high. What is the bullish scenario for her? First, a deal with Open AI for 6 gigawatts of computing power. Second, Raymond James' target is $641 for AMD.
Moving on to the bearish scenario : 153x forward earnings vs. 3.57–6.9 for memory. Second, the average target of $636 is only 5% above the current price. Third, Open AI has a warrant for 160 million AMD shares, and Open AI just experienced a revenue scare. AMR reports on November 3rd, so there are only two stocks left in this video, and both produce hard drives.
So why did Toshiba hit them? Because Toshiba plans to double its supply of hard drives, and this is dragging both manufacturers down. If you look at this chart, Western Digital closed at $380, almost 31 % below its high of $548 on August 4th. And Seagate closed at $747, 25% below its high of $994 on August 7.
So, for Western Digital, the bullish scenario is as follows. First, the average target price is $668, which is almost 76% higher than the current price. Secondly, the forward profit is only 18.85. Third, the earnings report will be on October 22nd. Now, what is the " bearish" scenario for them? First, UBS lowered its price target from $525 to $470.
And secondly, Toshiba is increasing its supply volumes. Now, moving on to Seagate, the bullish scenario is pretty simple. First, the average target price is $1,144, which is 53% higher than the current price. Secondly, the earnings report will be around October 27th. So, the bears' arguments regarding Seagate look like this.
First, the debt is almost 3.9 billion with only 1.7 billion in cash. Second, the forward profit is 20.77. So, expensive compared to memory. So after all these numbers, how do you actually decide? Which brings us to our final verdict. If you look at this chart, on the left is the bullish scenario. The upside potential to analysts' target price at Western Digital is 76%.
And AMD only has 5%. On the right is the "bear" scenario. How much you pay for each dollar of forward earnings: from 3.6 times at SK Hynix to 53.5 times at AMD . Here's how I would use it. So ask yourself these three questions. First, are you making one bet or six? On October 8, all six stocks fell between 2.9 and 4.9% due to a single headline about OpenAI.
Owning all six is more like one big AI spending bet than six separate bets. Secondly, what do you need to believe in to get back to your maximum? Micron needs 32% growth. Seagate—growth of 33%. Western Digital—44%. SanDisk—59%. And AMD only needs 7%. But it has already increased by 33% recently. Third, which catalyst will you trust?
SanDisk options call for a move of $163 per share in either direction on October 29. And Seagate has 3.9 billion in debt with a cash position of 1.7 billion. Your calendar is very important. So mark it on your calendar. Today's inflation data (CPI). Western Digital reports on October 22. Seagate—around October 27.
And the Fed meets on October 28th. SanDisk reports on October 29th. And AMD—November 3. And SK Hynix—around November 13. High inflation hurts the most expensive assets. First of all—AMD. The low level takes the pressure off bonds on all six. And Western Digital's report on October 21 is a real first test for storage device manufacturers.
And a big thank you to all the Bear Finance participants. Thank you very much for watching my videos. And I'll see you in my video tomorrow.
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