저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 린치는 재무보고 활용과 변동성 활용을 강조하며, 기업 이익 성장에 따라 주식시장이 장기적으로 상승한다고 본다. 재무보고 관점: 과거 대비 기업 재무 공시가 크게 개선되었고, 분기별 대차대조표 공개와 펀드 정보 제공이 확대되었다고 말한다. 다만 자동차 주식을 보유했다면 신문의 자동차 면을 보라는 식으로, 보유 업종 관련 정보에 집중하라고 조언한다. 주가 조회 관점: 매일 주가를 확인하거나 증권사에 자주 시세를 묻는 것은 시간 낭비이며 도움이 되지 않는다고 지적한다. 기업 관찰 관점: 소매·외식 업종 종사자라면 Taco Bell, McDonald's, Toys R Us, Bombay, Radio Shack 등의 성장을 직접 관찰할 수 있다고 말한다. 장기적으로는 현재의 사소한 사항보다 2~5년 뒤 국가와 기업이 어떻게 될지를 봐야 한다고 강조한다. 경기순환주 관점: 경기순환 기업은 실적 회복 신호를 기다렸다가 둔화 신호가 보이면 다른 종목으로 옮기라고 조언한다. 변동성 관점: 변동성을 좋아한다고 말하며, 1972년 Taco Bell 사례(14달러에서 1달러 수준으로 하락 후 상승, 1978년 Pepsi의 42달러 인수 언급)를 든다. 일일 큰 등락은 대중에게 좋지 않다고 보지만, 이해하고 보유한 자산이라면 변동성은 기회라고 말한다. 시장 전망: 기업 이익이 연 약 8% 성장하면 주가도 약 9년마다 두 배가 될 것이라 보며, 현재 지수 약 3,700~3,800 부근에서 다음 3,800포인트 이상은 상승 방향이라고 확신한다. 이후 8~9년 뒤 다시 두 배가 될 것으로 본다. 리스크/조건: 이해하지 못하는 자산은 피하고, 이해하기 어렵다면 펀드 보유 후 꾸준히 추가 매수하라는 조건을 붙인다.
다듬은 글
how useful is the financial reporting in the general Daily Press to you and how useful should it be to investors in general it has improved dramatically uh not just in the Press but also company reported ten years ago companies didn't have interim balance sheets it's hard to imagine they only gave their balance sheet to you once a year now they show you quarterly what's having their inventories without receivables uh in in now in uh in the major newspapers they'll even show types of funds they're now I think there's 2500 companies in New York Stock Exchange there's over 5 000 different mutual funds so there's twice as many mutual funds as our stocks at least in the paper day explains what kind of fund this fund is so I think reporting has improved the report earnings but again I think if you own Auto stocks you shouldn't be reading the financial part of the newspaper on Wednesday the local newspaper Tuesday some places are on Saturday they have a whole four pages on automobiles they talk about new models and they say this one stinks and this one's outstanding they really if you own Auto stocks that's the part newspaper you should be in you shouldn't be calling your broker four times a day to get stock quotes it doesn't work getting up in the morning to look to see how your stock did yesterday is not useful all this stuff is just a waste of time if you're adding up how much your stocks are worth absolute waste of time you should be looking at the company when you get the quarterly reports you should be if you're at the mall imagine if you're in the read if you're in the retailing industry or if you're in a restaurant industry you would have seen Taco Bell you would have seen McDonald's you would have seen Toys R Us I mean you've seen all these companies do terrifically well you would have seen Bombay you've seen Tandy with Radio Shack have you ever seen RadioShack roll across the country pretty soon there were you know 25 radar Shacks in every major city and you said there's not much room for them to go but they had a 20-year grade run that's what you're dealing with you're not dealing with the minutia of today you're dealing what's this country doing two years three years four years five years from now and if you're dealing with a cyclical and businesses turning around you wait for signs that business is slowing down when you see it you move on to something else are you concerned about the volatility in the financial markets today do you think something needs to be done to reduce it I love volatility I I think I remember when uh in 1972 the market went from uh down dramatically and Taco Bell went from 14 to 1.
they had no debt they never had a restaurant close and uh I started buying at seven but I kept onto it and it went to one and uh it was the largest position in Magellan in 1978 when it was bought out by forty two dollars by Pepsi Cola and I think it would have gone to 400 if they'd buy it out I think volatility is terrific I think it is very I think these calls are very important I don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public I think that's not a very good thing but I think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the Market's going to go up and down of the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25 000 years and some event will come out of left field and uh the market will go down or Mark will go up so I volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs I think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds provide Federal mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basic corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so I think the next marks about 3 800 today 3700 I'm pretty convinced the next 3 800 points will be up it won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points I know which way to go so the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years it ought to double again in the 89 years after that because profits will go up eight percent a year and and stocks will follow that's all there is to it
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