저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 루비니는 비트코인에 내재가치가 없다고 보며 중앙은행 디지털화폐(CBDC)가 암호화폐를 대체할 것이라고 주장한다. 비트코인 가치 비판: 비트코인은 공급이 알고리즘으로 고정돼 조작이 어렵다는 장점이 있지만, 근본적으로 내재가치가 없다. 가격 조작 의혹: 펌프앤덤프, 스푸핑, 워시 트레이딩, 거래소의 프런트러닝 등에 관한 학술 연구가 있다고 언급한다. 스테이블코인 테더(Tether)는 올해 발행량이 140억 달러(40억→200억 달러)늘었고, 비트코인 가격이 오를 때마다 발행이 늘어 조작 의심 근거가 된다고 주장한다. 암호화폐 사업과 범죄: 암호화폐가 범죄·사기·불투명성 없이 성장하기 어렵다고 본다. AML·KYC 규제가 있으면 일부 통제는 가능하나 그러면 범죄 용도로는 쓰이지 않게 된다고 지적한다. CBDC 전망: 중국이 추진 중이며 유럽중앙은행과 약 20개 중앙은행이 제안 단계이고, 연준도 결국 따라갈 것이라고 전망한다. 모든 개인과 기업이 중앙은행에 계정을 갖게 돼 결제가 저렴하고 즉시 이뤄지며, 이는 암호화폐뿐 아니라 은행 예금·송금 등 기존 디지털 결제도 압도할 것이라고 한다. 규제와 AML/KYC: 현재 은행이 이미 AML·KYC를 수행하고 있어 CBDC 도입 시에도 기존 금융 시스템과 중앙은행의 협업으로 충분히 관리 가능하다고 본다. 국경 간 송금은 여전히 시간이 더 걸린다. 현금 축소: 현금 사용이 줄고 있고(스웨덴, 중국의 QR 구걸 사례) 사회가 캐시리스로 향하고 있다. CBDC로 현금을 폐지하면 마이너스 금리 정책을 더 깊게 쓸 수 있어 경기침체 대응에 유리하다고 본다. 연준이 가장 뒤처져 있다고 평가한다. 리스크: 발언 중 특정 가격 목표나 기간에 대한 예측은 없으며, 비트코인에 대해 부정적 견해만 제시한다.
다듬은 글
you are scathing over the underlying value of bitcoin what will be the catalyst that will expand the supply of bitcoin providing a lessening of bitcoin's value well compared to other cryptocurrencies the only advantage of bitcoin is that its supply cannot be easily manipulated because many of the other cryptocurrencies the supply is increased by fiat by the founders while there is a cryptographic algorithm that determines the supply of bitcoin my argument against bitcoin is not the one i have against other cryptocurrencies that are being debased that will day in the out is rather that it doesn't have any fundamental value first of all calling them cryptocurrencies is a misnomer for some people currency has to be a unit of account a scalable means of payment and a stable store of value on all of these counts neither bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is a currency first of all secondly there is plenty of academic evidence suggesting that the price of bitcoin has been manipulated the studies about pumping done schemes spoofing wash trading front running by exchanges well it's really wide threads and there's a specifically one stable coin feder whose supply is increased this year alone by 14 billion from four to 20 and every time the price of bitcoin okay they're surprising so i have good reason to believe that it's manipulated and it doesn't have any intrinsic value okay because of time oriole i want to cut to the chase as i did with mr corray which is this belief that we can develop an adult cryptocurrency business without crime without scam and without the the lack of transparency the opaqueness within the global financial markets can we do bitcoin and cryptocurrency without crime uh well if you had the reinforcement of mal and kyc anti-money laundering know your customer then you could have some of these things being regulated but then they would not be used for those shady activity the problem is that i think that we're going direction in which there'll be introduction of central bank digital currencies china is doing it the european central bank is a proposal another 20 central banks a proposal and i think even the fed given that everybody else is going out is gonna have to do it once we have a central bank digital currency every individual not just banks every business gonna have an account with the central bank so we can make payments cheaply safely instantaneously with clearing and settlement and therefore a central bank digital currency is going to dominate not only cryptocurrencies that have no means of payment value because they're not scalable but even bank deposits and wires and other alternative digital payment system that exists today that's the revolution is coming that's the future of money and of currency not crypto but what does it mean for you know registration oil and enforcement you know one of the questions that we were asking is actually is there a danger to the financial system is that danger to stability and for example you know someone goes from france to another country and wants to paint digital currencies what does it mean for what data we need to collect on that person well no the system where central bank digital currency is going to be that will be real mal and kyc banks are already doing this job for any bank account so if you have a bank account and then you are converting some of your bank deposits in an account at the central bank the job of doing the man and kyc is going to be outsourced to the current financial system is doing quite a good job so central banks are not going to go and verify every individual or every business and so on so i think those issues can be managed quite well and easily in collaboration between central banks and the current system of commercial banks even the digital payment system exists right now say paypal or venmo or square or alipay which at pay they're usually linked to your bank account and therefore somebody's doing the mal and therefore if the transfer of money is cross-border of course cross-border transfers always take longer because there is this ml and kosc kind of issues that are less of an issue within a country transfer but all those things can be managed and there are already processes to think about what you're going to do when you have a central bank digital currency yeah when you look at kofi it has it really accelerated the cashless society by a decade uh it has a in many different ways that first of all touching bank notes and coins can potentially transfer the disease secondly we've realized that there is a constraint on how much in countries that have a negative policy rate you can go negative because you're gonna have a reversal rate where the excess reserves can be converted into cash if you have a digital currency fully center band digital currency and you phase out cash you can go more negative in terms of the policy rate if needed in an economic slump and in many countries the use of cash is disappearing you know in places like sweden or in china even the beggars in the streets are using a qr code on their phone up to to get a donation so we're going to a society is going to become cashless therefore central banks have to try to think about e-money and they're doing it the only one is behind the curve currently is the fed that doesn't have anything okay
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