저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 린치는 장기 투자 원칙(보유 종목 이해, 재무제표 확인, 장기 성장 기업 보유)을 강조하며 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다. 투자 원칙: 보유 자산(주식·펀드)의 근거를 11살에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 있어야 하며, 대차대조표(재무제표)를 확인해야 한다고 강조. 주식 vs 채권·현금: 당시 머니마켓펀드 금리 약 5~6%, 10년물 국채 약 7%대. 린치는 향후 10년간 주식이 국채·현금보다 낫다고 본다고 언급했으나 구체적 수익률 목표는 제시하지 않음. 자산배분: 주식 비중은 개인 선택이며 '나이에 따라 주식 비중을 줄이라'는 규칙은 비판적. 개인 상황에 맞는 배분 권고. 실수 사례: 토이저러스·홈디포 등 성장주를 너무 일찍 매도한 경험을 언급하며, 성장 기업은 10~20년 장기 스토리로 보유해야 한다고 조언. 경기 전망: 현재 경기는 전반적으로 양호하다고 평가. 기술·통신 섹터 등 일부 부문은 약세였으나 전형적 경기침체 수준이며 미국 경제는 강하다고 봄. 다만 구체적 기간별 방향 예측은 없음. 일본과의 비교: 일본식 장기 침체(12년)와는 다르다고 선을 그음. 리스크·조건: 단기 시장 등락에 따라 펀드를 자주 갈아타면 장기 수익을 놓칠 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
I believe the same principles will still be valid in 20 years as they were in 1950 2005 and now first and foremost you need to be aware of the assets you own whether they are stocks or mutual funds you also need to have a justification for your Holdings and you should be able to explain this to an 11 year old in no more than two minutes I tried that one but there's no solid reason why it didn't work basically you have three options today and if you are an investor I believe you can put your money in a money market fund to earn 17 5 and 6 percent with a 40 tax rate bring in a 10-year Treasury and receive four sevens that are taxed at a 40 rate or you can invest in stocks because I believe stocks will do far better over the next 10 years than four sevens or one sevens now that I would have part of my money it is up to the individual to decide how much they want to invest in the stock market for some 10 is too aggressive well for others fifty percent is the ideal amount it's a personal choice and you can't follow the rules that say you should be a hundred when you're 25 50 when you're 45 and 0 when you're 60.
I find those restrictions to be pitiful and I detest them why do you feel assured in 10 years stock prices will be significantly higher in any case stocks aren't lottery tickets rather their shares in a firm and since I believe that businesses can generate a lot more money in 10 or 20 years that's why prices rise that is the only Factor at play and why some businesses fail the amount of money that Xerox makes today is significantly less than it was 30 years ago stocks increase because firms are making much more money than they were previously since World War II corporate profits have increased 40 times and the stock market has increased 40 times what are the most glaring errors you've observed investors making well I believe my error was not looking at the balance sheet you should do the same with a firm if you look at a person's balance sheet you can see what assets they own such as their homes and cars as well as what debt they have let's imagine we are comparing two businesses they're both losing a few million dollars a piece and are in a very sad State at four dollars a share one company has a hundred million dollars in cash and no debt whilst the other has neither cash nor debt the second company is going to go under if you can do 8th grade math you can reach anywhere close to eight and eight equals 16.
if you look at a company's financial situation it is also impossible for it to go under you owe no one anything you probably face the same demand to demonstrate performance results while you are actively managing money did that make you want to sell too soon sometimes though I believe that my biggest errors have been in stock trading where you can lose up to a hundred dollars you make a lot of mistakes because those ones that go up tenfold like all the 10 Baggers are the ones that cause a good firm to double triple and quadruple in value so a few of my errors have you wondering what inning I'm in this baseball game and saying things like oh my God this stock is too high and I was raw I sold Toys R Us way too soon and when I sold it the price increased 20 fold I also did the same thing with Home Depot when odd one to sell if you claim that a firm is a sickle and is performing poorly you should investigate why you purchased its stock in the case of Walmart ten years after they went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the United States and they could ask why they can't go to 17 why they can't go to 19 why they can't go to 23 Etc you wait until things are getting better and they're doing fantastic and then you sell it but with a Growth Company you have to say you must tell yourself that you have a 10-year tail and a 20-year story in in the stock as you travel the country over the next four decades that's what I do with the company and that's your choice that's how you sell it I'll be able to write that down and adhere to it even so you still purchase a business with the intention of helping it develop if the business is in the textile Electronics or software Industries you should have a better understanding of what it does because if it succeeds the stock will as well regardless of the state of the market you would have made a lot of money in the Dow Jones index was 1000 or 500 today let me know in the comments if you have any other questions about investing let's return to the video in the last 30 years the earnings of these firms have increased significantly if the market had been fifty thousand dollars you would have lost money in Burlington Industries however you would have gained a lot of money in McDonald's Johnson and Johnson and Gillette I suppose I suggested that in 1969 and it went from 34 to 2 without any stock splits these earnings have been poor but your modesty actually highlights a crucial Point those with the highest batting averages around the globe don't bat a thousand but I occasionally get furious especially during bear markets when people remark that something worked well because so and so recommended it how frequently did you think of a clinker the funny thing about this is that you don't even need to be right 5 out of 10 times to make a double or triple when you buy a cycle ask yourself how much you can lose and how much you can make if you can make a lot you should be able to counter all those occasions when you lose 20 or 30 percent because these were high quality companies you could lose a lot of money in the stock market just consider how much money we lost in the atnt and how much less you lost than Xerox do you ever lose faith in yourself for instance let's assume you ask yourself how much can I make because I want to buy a stock and if I'm correct I'm going to make a double or triple I keep phoning the company because I believe that the market will increase every day you once told me that you spent all of your time looking at businesses and studying them as businesses and that you didn't spend much time caring about the economy what are your current thoughts on the economy I consider the economy the past and the future which is similar to weather forecasting I look at the economy backwards to see what's happening and it appears to be doing very well right now the housing market the auto market the consumer and other sectors all appear to be doing well however if you consider that there have been nine recessions since World War II and that the workforce has typically declined by about two percent on average this current recession's Workforce decline would only be about one percent so far this recession has been moderate especially in the technology and Telecom sectors for companies that manufacture fiber optics but it has been a typical recession and I would never bet against the American economy it is strong you didn't really like the technology group did you have actually begun looking now I start looking at these things in January and February so I'm a little early I've been researching the companies and they're very complex because unlike a group of banks each of the Thousand technology companies is a little bit different because they are so similar you must exercise caution I'm seeking for businesses that are leading their field are trading close to cash and are down 95 percent although the Japanese market and economy have been tremendously poor and have had a 12-year recession there was a significant banking system issue in Japan which I find to be a really interesting correlation our government is lucky that our companies move rapidly and quickly begin decreasing costs we entered this recession carrying a surplus which is unusual in our history in theory our nation should run surpluses in prosperous times and deficits and difficult ones guess what it's working right that was lacking in Japan where it has now been a waste of 12 years I don't think it has everything and it doesn't even somewhat resemble Japan to me we're beginning to get close to getting better Peter Liu asked you about some common investing blunders and since the average investor used to hold mutual funds for 16 to 17 years before it dropped to less than two years do you believe that's one of the issues if time runs out I suppose I'll also need to express my desires I'd say some people are as aggressive as 50 year olds and some people would desire to have foreign funds it's like a menu at a restaurant they should peruse it choose what they like and stick with it if one group performs well for two or three years the next round of funding should go to the group that isn't doing as well different categories tend to average out to be similar over time so if you focus on one for three years and then say get me out of that then switch to another and it performs poorly for three years you might stay there indefinitely without ever making money does this Market Peter make you think of any others you've gone through before say 1990 in many aspects the 90 bear Market is analogous for example one may imagine that Saddam Hussein takes over quit you know everyone is predicting that when we send 500 000 troops to Saudi Arabia Iraq will have the third largest army in the world and will become another Vietnam with all these Banks and the current problems we experienced a recession that was a really scary environment and we had defaults so it was an ugly environment and everyone was terrified I believe that was a very similar market and that 8182 was also unpleasant however our banks are in excellent form which is a significant Advantage we experience a 20 prime rate double-digit inflation high unemployment and to top it all off the 7374 Market do you recall the nifty 50 we had in technology stocks there were 95 declines in that market and we combined three markets into one unique situation where money was spent quickly there is less than a minute left people who are less optimistic about the economy than you just frequently point to recent dollar declines and the switch from a surplus to a deficit as negatives you seem to suggest that they are positives why well I think the government running a deficit is terrific that's why it should work I mean when they're running a 200 billion dollar Surplus which they were they're pumping 200 billion into the economy now the government's running a hundred billion dollar deficit it's pumping a hundred billion in its cushion so you don't see a double dip recession coming I'm not sure I can change the future but that's a good thing to have buffers in the economy there have been two recessions in our lifetimes and there have been nine worldwide the system works what piece of advice if any would you offer to frighten investors right now I believe you should watch some young children hire an eight-year-old or a six year old and observe them the yield curves form is known and people are hopeful about the future believing that things will be okay for the next 30 to 40 years courage and perseverance have been successful in the past hope you have learned something from this video what are your thoughts comment down below if you enjoyed this video make sure to click the like button and also don't forget to subscribe to the channel and hit the notification Bell for you to be updated on our latest videos see you in the next video thanks for 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