저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 AI 칩 기반으로 시가총액 1위 기업이며 아직 고평가가 아니라고 주장. 다만 개인 포트폴리오 비중(40~60%) 과다로 리밸런싱 차원에서 일부 익절하고 나스닥100과 현금으로 옮긴다고 밝힘. 장기 견해는 '최고의 날은 아직 오지 않았다'로 유지. 투자 원칙으로 '잃지 않는 것', 강한 의견을 느슨하게 보유, 분할 매수·매도(달러코스트 애버리징)를 제시. 유통 중인 Twilio, UiPath 등은 실적 악화를 이유로 비중 축소 또는 손절 검토 언급.
다듬은 글
Nvidia is the most powerful AI company on Earth because their AI chips are powering the next Industrial Revolution from humanoid robots and large language models to supercomputers and self-driving cars and at the time of this recording Nvidia is bigger than Apple bigger than Microsoft and now that Nvidia is the biggest company on Ear it finally time to sell Nvidia stock or are its this video is a little different it's a little more personal than usual and it won't be for everyone and of course I'm not here to hold you hostage so here's exactly what you can expect upfront the investing rules that I've been using to get rich without getting lucky I'll talk about the different reasons to sell a stock whether it's Nvidia or otherwise I'll explain exactly who might consider selling Nvidia stock and why and of course my latest long-term outlook on Nvidia now that it's the biggest company on Earth but let me quickly point out two things before diving in first this video is not trying to be some Ultimate Guide to Investing my goal here is to provide some perspective around selling stocks and I'll be using s examples and everything I'm about to share with you is working for me right now but don't forget that personal finance is more personal than Finance so use what works for you and throw away what doesn't and second I'm not a financial adviser my background is in electrical engineering and data science and I have around 10 years of Industry experience using AI to solve real world problems I also only invest inside my circle of competence which is why my channel focuses on AI applications and the chips that power them I'm sharing my thoughts for educational purposes only all right let's start with a few rules to get rich without getting lucky so that we can apply them to Nvidia stock later in the video the first and most important rule is this the first rule in investment is don't lose and the second rule in investment is don't forget the first rule and that's all the rules there are I mean that uh if you buy things for Far Below what they're worth and you buy a group of them you basically don't lose money wait that's it don't lose money the first time I saw this I rolled my eyes just like you probably did right now but that's because I was looking at this rule all wrong don't lose money is not about picking winning stocks it's about having the patience not to pick stocks at all let's look at another Quick Clip of Warren Buffett that really made this click for me and then we can reord this rule together Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and in the science of hitting he's got a diagram shows him at the plate and he's got the strike zone divided into 77 squares each the size of a baseball and he says if I only swing it pitches in my sweet Zone which he shows there and he has what his batting average would be which is 400 if he had to swing at low outside pitches but still in the in the strike zone his average would be 230 he said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0 and two or one and two or so on even if that ball was down where he was only going to bat 230 he had to swing at it in investing there's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that man you know you name it any any stock General Motors uh and I don't have the swing and nobody's going to call me out on call strikes I only get a strike called if I swing at a pitch and miss so I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and only when I see something I understand and when I like the price at which is selling then if I swing if I if I hit it fine if I miss it it's it's it's a strike but it's an enormously advantageous game and it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything you only have to have an opinion on a few things in fact I've told students if when they got out of school they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich you know four or five will probably do it over time Warren Buffett did not invest in Nvidia he missed the boat on Microsoft and he didn't even buy Apple stock which is his biggest position by far until 2016 when Apple was already worth over half a trillion dollars and Warren Buffett is still the eighth richest man in the world so the first and most important rule to get rich without getting lucky is this money missed is always better than money lost I would always rather miss a good investment opportunity which happens almost every single day than actually lose my hard earned money on a bad one never invest because of fomo or the fear of missing out because money missed is better than money lost no one used to be more guilty of this than me when I started this Channel at the end of 2020 I covered Kathy Wood's stock picks and trades in the AR invest funds which were the top performing funds that year Kathy Wood famously predicted Tesla's meteoric rise and I didn't want to miss the next Tesla stock and guess what happened I ended up losing around $300,000 and I have no one to blame but myself because I was constantly breaking this first rule learn from my expensive mistakes don't invest because of fomo and don't stay invested because of fomo either money missed is better than money lost as much as breaking this first rule hurt me following the second rule saved me the second and most important rule to get rich without getting lucky is to have strong opinions but hold them Loosely strong opinions loosely held I build strong opinions over time by doing my own research and seeing if my investment thesis still make sense based on the latest data like earnings reports and analyst updates AI conferences and keynote presentations the same things that I share on this channel Loosely holding my opinions just means that I'm not afraid to change them with new data said another way it's okay to be wrong it's not okay to stay wrong because staying wrong means you have a bias instead of looking at new data objectively here's another example when I started this channel I thought that Ark invest funds would outperform the market and become the new benchmarks kind of like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are today of course I was dead wrong but me having this opinion was not the problem remember these were the best performing funds at the time my problem was that I held this opinion even when the data was pointing the other way for example Rising interest rates are really bad for small companies that borrow money to grow since borrowing money got much more expensive Mar invest funds are full of these companies but instead of adjusting her investment strategy Kathy Wood went on air to explain why the Fed was wrong for raising interest rates in the first place and when their main fund RK started to tank I ignored that too because I held my opinion on AR invest too strongly it took AR invest selling the only stock I had an even stronger opinion on to buy a company with literally zero Revenue growth for me to finally change my mind sure what makes twily sort of a better player to have in your portfolio or your ETF right now than in Nvidia well I think a lot of people understand uh that Nvidia is just an incredible play on AI and it is priced accordingly I don't think many people know that twio if you use Uber then the communication around uber uh is powered by twillo so twilio has uh roughly a trillion consumer business interactions per year now uh what who are going to be the winners in AI since this interview tlio is down by 21% while Nvidia stock is up by over 200% and just to be clear none of this is Kathy Wood's problem AR invest manages a series of financial products based on a specific investing philosophy on an open market the only fool in this entire situation was me because I ignored dozens of data points like this one before fin changing my strongly held opinion learn from my expensive mistakes ask yourself if there's anything in your portfolio that you've been holding on to the same way over the years I've learned not to blindly trust any One Source when it comes to investing my money I consume a lot of content from a wide variety of highquality sources with consistent points of view if you're watching people who constantly flip-flop even when the fundamentals don't change they're probably not a reliable data point I did my best to get you in it I've been recommending Nvidia endlessly off multiple times a week both here and in the club for a decade now and we're short Nvidia it's a loser a couple years ago I fixed this for myself by unsubscribing from every channel on YouTube if you're subscribed to hundreds of channels like I was don't worry I'll leave a link to an article that explains how to mass unsubscribe from YouTube channels in the description it took around 5 minutes and after I did that YouTube started showing me tons of different content based on what I actually watched not just what I was subscribed to my personal rule is if I watch the same channel three times I'll subscribe and if they only post once or twice a week I'll hit the notification Bell that way I'm not getting spammed with notifications and whenever I do get one it's probably something I'll find valuable value does not mean that I agree with the content it just means that I can understand their point of view there are thousands of people who watch this channel specific speically to bet against me and that's great because that means they're trusting me to be consistent seriously take the time to find websites channels blogs and podcasts that work for you and cut the ones that don't even if that means cutting me the third and most important rule to get rich without getting lucky is to dollar cost average into positions and dollar cost average out Warren Buffett did not build his gigantic position in apple in a single trade he bought Millions ions of shares at least 14 separate times and sold Apple shares at least seven times so far and if you've been watching this channel over the last 3 years you've seen me buy Nvidia stock over 40 separate times 40 the great thing about dollar cost averaging is being able to buy more shares for the same amount of money when prices are low and the same is true when you sell as prices go higher and higher dollar cost averaging Out means selling fewer shares for the same amount of money I'll drop a link in the description to a great article titled even God couldn't beat dollar cost averaging which compares the returns from dollar cost averaging to buying the exact bottom of every single dip which obviously would require Godlike timing and guess what dollar cost averaging still wins simply because you get more money in sooner and the stock market tends to get more expensive over time all right now that we're armed with the three most important rules to get rich without getting lucky we can apply them to individual stocks selling stocks at the start of the year I made a video about the stocks that I'm buying to get rich without getting lucky here's that list again but this time with the Returns versus the S&P 500 which is up a whopping 16.2% so far this year let's look at UI path first since it's down by over 50% and it's underperforming the market by almost 70% since the start of the Year uipath's year-over-year growth has been cut in more than half they also replaced their co-founder and CEO Daniel denz with Ron enin only to bring Daniel back 5 months later adding to their troubles are generative AI models like open ai's GPT 40 and meta llama 3 which are getting more and more capable every day so potential customers are confused about why they need uipath in the first place at least according to uipath's most recent earnings call since it's already at the bottom of my list and Daniel denz just got reappointed I'm going to give uipath another couple quarters before I cut my losses but this is exactly the kind of data that should make me rethink my investment thesis in a stock strong opinions loosely held sometimes the reason to sell a stock has more to do with the economy than the company like I said earlier AR invest funds are full of smaller companies that borrow money to grow it doesn't matter whether the company is in health care or clean energy Finance or artificial intelligence if they borrow money to grow Rising interest rates are bad for them all that's why most of the companies on my list were worth hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars when I bought them that's big enough to thrive in this economy another reason to sell a stock is that it's simply overvalued Believe It or Not Nvidia is still not overvalued you cannot judge this company by price to earnings or price to sales ratios that the real test of whether you're investing from a value standpoint or not is whether uh you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow if you're making a good investment in a security it shouldn't bother you if they close down the stock market for 5 years all the ticker tells me is the price and I can look at the price occasionally to see whether the price is outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high but but prices don't tell me anything about a business business uh uh business figures themselves tell me something about a business but the price of a stock doesn't tell me anything about a business I would rather value a stock or a business first and not even know the price so that I'm not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation and then look at the price later to see whether it's way out of line with what my value is I can't tell you how many times I see value investors make the same mistake price to earnings and price to sales ratios are for comparing similar companies but no other company is any anything like Nvidia so you have to actually look at their revenues their margins and their free cash flows which is why I cover all those metrics every single earnings call and I don't worry too much about the price in between them all right in my opinion Nvidia doesn't have any problems when it comes to the company the economy or their valuation hint hint You might want to make sure that's true for the other stocks in your portfolio but that begs the question why sell Nvidia stock and the answer has everything to do with the investor the personal part of personal finance Nvidia grew way faster than every other stock on my list by a lot and it's more than 10x in the time that I've been covering it I personally don't want 40 50 60% of my portfolio to be tied to any one asset especially one as volatile as Nvidia that doesn't mean I sell my entire position all at once remember our third rule but it does mean that I need to rebalance by putting at least some of those gains into the NASDAQ 100 and keeping some of it in cash how much you should take off the table really depends on you that's the personal part of personal finance if you're close to retirement and you just 10x your money congratulations on your early retirement if you're young and you're holding serious gains but you have high interest debt like credit cards student loans or a new mortgage congratulations on being able to pay it off for pennies on the dollar with your profits personally I'm about to pay for my wedding my honeymoon and even help my mom retire don't worry I'm 100% going to keep covering and holding some of my Nvidia shares over the long term because its best days are still to come my conviction hasn't changed but as an investor I have don't make the same expensive mistakes that I made learn from them don't make the same expensive mistakes that Tesla investors made learn from them and always remember the four most important rules to get rich without getting lucky say no to fomo money missed is better than money lost use lots of data to build strong convictions not strong biases strong opinions loosely held time in the market beats timing the market dollar cost average in and out and the fourth and most important rule to get rich without getting lucky is this the best investment you can make is in you
Comments 0