저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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인플레이션은 가격 하락이 아니라 상승률이 둔화되는 것이며, 서구에서 과거 물가 수준으로 되돌아가는 일은 없다고 설명. 중앙은행은 말보다 행동을 봐야 하며, 금리보다 은행 대출 성장이 경제에 더 중요하다고 강조. 국제분산은 변동성을 줄이지만 S&P500이 장기적으로 대부분 해외 주식을 앞서 왔고, 핵심은 해외 투자 자체보다 글로벌 관점의 분산이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
if you expect inflation overall to reverse we just don't do that in Western culture we're not going to go back to the lower prices overall so I get uh people sending me questions and uh the every month I like try to Rattle through them pretty quick what I call invading the mailbag and uh one one that came in this month what about the fact that food prices are not falling Ken you've said that inflation is falling um but food prices aren't under your assessment input prices have come down why isn't food prices aren't coming down now let me make this as clear as I can this is a terminology uh dilemma inflation is always defined as a rate at which prices are increasing in our Western Society we don't reverse prior inflation when the the Central Bank talks about its goals it's never talked about trying to bring food prices back down to where they were what it's talked about as a goal is to return to 2% inflation on an ongoing basis which implies food prices going up but at a lower rate than they were going up at last year if you expect inflation overall to reverse we just don't do that in Western culture we're not going to go back to the lower prices overall now mind you yes it is true there's always some prices going up and some prices going down making the average at a moment in time but the totality of them the Central Bank hopes would be 2% inflation which does not imply reversing the inflation of the past there's actually no part of what the central bank here or in Europe or in any other major country in the world is trying to do purposefully to reverse prior inflation you shouldn't expect that but it it's a good question and it's one I hear a lot of why aren't prices back where they were you said to watch out what central Bankers do not what they say what should we watching for now that what's of alarm bells in your mind so this could be a longer discussion but you know this is a very long history very long history of Central Bank saying one thing and doing another and I do not believe that's because they're dishonest or they mean to mislead you although maybe at sometimes and in some places that's been the case but mostly they don't know what they're going to do and they say stuff because they just do and then later change their mind and do something else and and the most Vivid example of that was in um May of 2022 when Jerome Powell head of the US Federal Reserve said we are not even considering raising uh overnight Reserve rates by 3/4 of 1% his actual words were 75 basis points and then the next month in June they did 75 basis points and the next month after that they did 75 basis points and they took a month off and then they did another 75 basis points and they did another 75 basis points and and that's the point about watching what they do now what they say now in reality what's really most important is not what they do with interest rates because interest rates that they control do not have a direct effect on the economy if they did have a direct effect on the economy the economy would be in a lot worse shape now as everyone once thought it would be now when they started doing this last year it would be in a lot worse shape than it is the fact is the thing that really matters much more importantly than this is what happens to bank lending overall in our society and if lending growth is relatively robust what they're doing with interest rates only impacts some sectors of the economy not the overall economy and mind you whatever they do or whatever the federal government does or whatever goes on wise in the economy hurts some people at the at the benefit of some others these people get a benefit these people suffer from it and and and that's just you know the way it is there's always some sectors that are impacted more than others and relative to the overall total effect but overall loan growth is relatively good you can see this every Friday afternoon if you want by looking up the St Louis federal reserves quote Fred data online and seeing what's happened in the most recent week and over the longer term and intermediate term you can do it in charts you can do it in tables you be doing in raw data to bank lending but as long as over all Bank lending not this sector not that sector but overall Bank lending is going at a relatively good rate stronger than the growth of the economy that's the most important thing if the fed's actually to do something that's bad you're going to see the loan growth fall regarding International stocks Ken you say you gain less volatility and smooth out your long-term returns by being International I actually never said that let me tell you what I said but the S&P outperforms uh just about all Internationals over time so why do I want lower return so first what I've said is not that you should own Internationals instead of us what I've said is you should think Global and you should be Global the fact is that the global stock market overall has exactly as the question frames at lower volatility than the US Stock Market and that's because overall it's not as concentrated as the US Stock Market is and the US Stock Market has done better than the non- US Stock Market because the US Stock markets big biggest weight is technology and technology has done very well for a long time and the non US market has a much lower weight in technology and that's true whether you're looking at China or Europe or Japan or or or or the fact is that if you look at the nonte world and by non Tech I don't just mean Tech I mean nonte and Tech like community communication Services which would include a lot of the online stuff the rest of the US Stock Market returns are pretty much the same as the non- US Stock Market returns and the US tech world's done better than the non US tech world but again not by as much the real difference is that the dominant feature over over 30% of the US Stock Market is in stuff that is Tech or is Tech like and moves with tech acts like Tech Walks Like A Duck talks like a duck and pretty much is a duck even if it's not technically a duck and that Global part allows you to have the tech from America and the diversification of all of the other things overseas so you have a more total diverse portfolio with a global stock market return that matches the world again I didn't say ever International when people say intern International is a word itself in rhetoric simply means between multiple countries it doesn't imply non Us in total uh and there is a non- Us in total world but it's Global that you should think at Global you should focus at and Global that becomes something that reduces your volatility while still allowing you uh complete exposure to the fast growing Innovations and never yet done things that come out of the technology world thank you very much for listening to me subscribe to the Fish videos
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