Fisher Investments Founder, Ken Fisher, Debunks “Trust Your Gut”

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Ken Fisher는 '직감을 믿어라'는 시장 통념을 반박한다. 사람들은 맞힌 직감만 기억하고 틀린 직감은 잊어 자기 판단을 과대평가한다(누적된 자부심, 후회 회피). 손실은 같은 크기의 이익보다 약 2.5배 크게 느껴져 하락장에서 손절하는 본능은 체계적으로 역효과다. 1998년처럼 큰 변동성 속 반등을 놓치는 것이 대표적 사례다. 직감을 적어 3년 후 검증해보라고 권하며, 직감에 따라 행동하지 말라는 결론이다.

다듬은 글

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01. I just had a gut feeling that that stock was going to go up and then it just went through the roof people think that kind of thing all the time mostly not perfectly but mostly you when you do that are fooling yourself so every month I uh do a chapter out of this old book of mine debunkery uh to talk about something that is commonly done that's bunk and kind of how you know it's bunk this month I'm going to focus on uh I labeled at the time bunk number seven uh trust your gut and you know seven is supposed to be a lucky number I guess you know that right and uh when you trust your gut you got to be lucky that's the reality uh the the the chapter says it well because it starts off talking about about Notions like I just had a gut feeling that that stock was going to go up and then it just went through the roof now there's a lot of Behavioral research that's been done that shows that people think that kind of thing all the time or or the reverse I just knew there was going to be a terrible bust I told everybody uh and then there was see I was right mostly not perfectly but mostly you when you do that are fooling yourself because the way the human brain works it tends to remember that we had an inkling that that might happen but we also had lots of other inklings that were contradictory uh we may have actually thought that would happen but we forget all the other things we thought at the same time that ended up being wrong where we had gut instincts and uh I challenge you whenever you get a gut instinct to write it down and document it and then see if 3 years later you were right or wrong and you're going to find that most of the time you were wrong because gut instincts tend to be about what's comfortable at the time and there's an age- old saying that in capital markets uh Comfort is a very expensive thing to achieve the fact is that mostly the way our brain works it encourages us to think we were right so the next time we take a risk on a gut while feeling comfortable but in fact forget about the times that we're wrong and in in behavioral psychology this is what's known as accumulating pride and shunning regret I bought it it went up I'm smart want to see me do it again I bought it it went down oh that wasn't my fault I no no no I didn't buy it uh I think you just thought I bought it uh no no no I wouldn't have bought it if if my wife hadn't been grumping at me that morning uh the broker cheated me uh the other thing is and again the the chapter on uh trusting your gut goes into this at Great length the and when I say great length I mean the chapter is only that long so it can't be great length it's got a chart and everything uh the um fact is people hate losses more than they love comparable gains this has been documented in behavioralism for a long time the average American uh Bernard San Thor documented a long time ago hates a loss about two and a half times as much as they love a gain meaning that a 10% loss feels about as bad to them as a 25% gain feels good to them and when we get to scary times and drops there's a tremendous tendency to have your gut say I better Cut and Run somehow some way and that gut instinct which I've seen over and over again in people in my 50 plus years of of running money is categorically a backwards Instinct categorically backwards to cut and run after you've seen a drop thinking that you've got a gut instinct that there's going to be more drop ahead you there's no basis for doing that uh but people do it all the time because they hate the loss the pain of the loss makes them say I got to cut the loss to not feel more pain ahead and they can't quite anticipate as the chapter says the degree to which when you get the bounce back the bounceback is going to compensate for the drop uh that future benefit is hard for people to get the the book because it's it's a old book uh spends uh time on this uh graphic that shows you how that played in 1998 which was a great year in the stock market with a lot of volatility in it and at the time it takes you the chronology a little bit of what happened in that year 1998 as you had the market up 20 something per Then Fall 20% Then rally even more and end the year up 28% and in that a great year overall but an awful lot of opportunity for people to cut and run the wrong long time because of gut instincts and the gut instincts at the time were because of headline risk associated with a series of topics that ended up pretty much all being false but they gave an awful lot of people gut instincts and people remember the gut instinct that they think they had when they were right I cannot tell you how many times in my career we have had people say to us but I told you this was going to happen and in reality you go back and you go through U their file and there's no indication that they ever said that at all mostly they kind of thought it a little bit or they raised it as a question like maybe this could happen when you say maybe this could happen that doesn't mean that you really had conviction in it and there's all kinds of things we can wonder about but the fact is gut instincts are mostly aimed at your comfort zone Comforts very expensive to achieve it's mostly aimed at trying to either when things are complacent and doing well try to do what everybody else seems to think will do well or to fear that that won't work and think about going the other way but you don't actually do it because if you actually really knew which of course we don't no one does but if you actually really knew you would take the the action the fact is that the gut instinct is something that if you do take the action on again I encourage you as I said earlier every time you think you have a gut instinct write it down and don't don't say you had a gut instinct if you didn't write it down do that for 3 years and you'll learn a lot about how gut instincts really work the fact is gut instincts usually hurt you if you act on them and I encourage you not to act on them and I encourage you to think about a gut instinct as a form of where your desire for Comfort gets you into trouble thank you very much for listening to me and I hope this was useful I very much hope you enjoyed this video as part of my series on debunking Common Market myths to watch more videos like this click the link on the screen and make sure to subscribe to Fisher Investments YouTube channel thanks so much for listening to me