저자: HamishHodder—주출연자는워런버핏·찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔 연례총회에서 버핏·멍거가 AI, 미중 관계, 분산투자, 스트리밍 산업 등을 논의한 내용을 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 영상 자체는 특정 자산의 가격 방향을 예측하지 않으며, 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없다. AI 영향: 버핏은 AI가 빠르게 발전하며 많은 일자리를 대체할 수 있고, 사회적 영향이 원자폭탄처럼 되돌릴 수 없다고 우려를 표명했다. 골드만삭스 추정으로 미국·유럽 일자리의 3분의 2가 어느 정도 자동화될 수 있고 전 세계 최대 3억 개 일자리가 대체될 수 있다고 소개했다. 미중 관계: 멍거·버핏은 핵무기 때문에 상호 확증파괴 상황에서 양국이 서로 횡포를 부릴 수 있는 게임이론적 상황이라고 설명했다. 양국은 잘 지내야 하며 중국과 자유무역을 많이 해야 한다고 주장했다. 대만 TSMC: 버핏은 TSMC를 매각한 이유로 대만의 지정학적 위치를 꼽았다. 대만이 중국으로부터 독립적으로 운영될 수 있을지 측정 불가능하다고 본 것이다. 분산투자: 버핏·멍거는 광범위한 분산투자를 비판하고, 확신이 있는 소수 좋은 아이디어에 집중하는 것이 낫다고 주장했다. 역량의 원(Circle of competence) 안에서 투자해야 한다고 강조했다. 소비자 행동: 기술 세부사항보다 소비자가 원하는 제품의 특성과 패턴을 이해하는 것이 중요하다고 봤다. See's Candy와 애플 사례를 들었다. 파라마운트: 버크셔가 약 9,400만 주를 보유 중이며, 최근 배당을 80% 삭감했다. 스트리밍 사업은 경쟁이 치열해 수익성 확보가 어렵다고 평가했다. 넷플릭스만 수익을 내며, 일부 미디어 기업이 철수해야 가격 인상이 가능하다고 봤다. 버핏·멍거 모두 영화 사업에 비관적 견해를 보였다. 출연자 전망: 버핏·멍거는 파라마운트 투자에 긍정적이지 않았다. 스트리밍 사업 전망은 어렵다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
all right just finished the Berkshire meeting what's your favorite mask um I don't know it was interesting they talked a lot about hold on a sec this whole journey started on Wednesday we packed our bags and headed to the airport we were heading to the small town of Omaha Nebraska where once a year 40 000 people come to listen to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger answer questions and discuss a variety of topics from the economy value investing and geopolitics and they know they have to get along with each other either one can destroy the other anyway this is us after staying up for 26 hours so that we could sleep on the plane it didn't work well at least the jet lag provided one advantage when we woke up at 3am to line up for the meeting it felt like it was the middle of the day we rushed inside to get a good spot to sit oh look there's monish babri we got comfortable in our seats and we're ready to hear from two of our favorite investors as Ai and Robotics continue to advance what do you believe will be the positive and inactive on both the stocks markets and society as a whole this year's annual meeting was in my view one of the best yet as both Warren and Charlie actively answered a huge variety of topics from artificial intelligence to geopolitical tensions between China and the US and they also provided a great deal of insights on how the average person can become a better investor the first big topic of the day was artificial intelligence and its impact as it grows exponentially over the coming years it couldn't tell jokes Bill told me that ahead of time and it prepared me and it it just isn't there you know with things like checking all the legal opinions on you know since the beginning of time and everything and eliminating all the sided I mean it can do all kinds of things AI is advancing quickly and even at the ripe age of 92 Buffett can appreciate how the development of chat jpt and similar Technologies are likely to displace a large number of jobs in a very short period of time a study by Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of jobs in the U.S and Europe will be automated by AI to some degree and as many as 300 million jobs globally will eventually be displaced while the study shows that jobs in practically every industry will be affected the jobs most likely to be impacted first are office and administrative jobs followed by legal work architecture and engineering of course while AI is likely to provide a significant leap in efficiency in these areas there are some reasons to be concerned when something can do all kinds of things I get a little bit worried and because I know we won't be able to uninvent it AI is going to change the world in ways that we cannot begin to imagine and there will be no way to go back while he acknowledges that it's not exactly the same Buffett refers to the invention of the atom bomb as a similar situation we did invent uh for very very good reason the atom bomb in in World War two and it was in you know it was enormously important that we did so but is it good for the next 200 years of the world that that the ability to do so has been Unleashed towards the end of World War II a team led by J Robert Oppenheimer developed the world's first nuclear weapons that were ultimately used twice by the United States against Japan in 1945.
to this day they remained the only two times that nuclear weapons have been used but the technology that was created 80 years ago is now available to many nations and has permanently changed geopolitical tensions in a meaningful way you have the two superpowers of the world and they know they have to get along with each other either one can destroy the other Buffett goes on to explain that because both the US and China have nuclear weapons that they could use against the other each can get away with being a bully because the alternative is mutual destruction so the invention of nuclear weapons essentially created a game theory situation game theory is a type of mathematics which studies the interactions between rationally acting parties imagine a situation where you and your friend are both arrested for committing a crime together you are being interrogated and there are four possible outcomes if you both remain silent you will both walk free if you talk and your friend remains silent you'll get a lighter prison sentence than your friend but if you both talk then you'll both serve the same prison sentence knowing all four outcomes the best decision for both of you would be to remain silent so that you don't go to prison but because you don't know what the other person is going to do the most rational option is for you to talk of course if both you and your friend both choose the most rational outcome then you will both go to jail the same sort of situation could be said for the U.S and China's geopolitical situation it's in the best interest of both parties to get along but with the looming tensions of potential nuclear war both parties can get away with bullying each other without massive retaliation and this of course has led to progressively Rising tensions I think that that tension has been wrongly created on both sides I think we're equally Gully of being stupid there's one thing we should do let's get along with China and we should have a lot of free trade with China Buffett also commented on why he decided to sell his position in Taiwan semiconductors and whether it has anything to do with concerns about China Taiwan semiconductor is one of the best managed companies and important companies in the world and uh there is not and I think you'll be able to say the same thing 5 or 10 or 20 years from now I don't like its location and and I've been reevaluated that while he didn't explicitly say this I think Buffett would put the China Taiwan situation in the basket of important but unknowable to him the success of the investment in tsmc hinges too much on whether Taiwan is allowed to continue operating independently from China something that Buffett can't measure and therefore he would rather allocate his Capital elsewhere just before I get to the next clip my buddy Brandon is going to tell you about our Berkshire sponsor Hamish and Brandon's Berkshire Bonanza 2023 is brought to you by Seeking Alpha try seeking out for premium today to access seeking off his rating system valuation breakdowns 10 years of financial data unlimited news and Analysis articles Plus have earnings called transcripts investor presentations SEC filings and press releases all in the one place with the suite of tools that come with Seeking Alpha premium you can be confident no matter what company you're looking at you'll be able to get up to speed fast but the best thing about our partnership is if you sign up with our referral link you can access a 14-day free trial of Seeking Alpha premium so go check him out give Seeking Alpha premium and go for yourself and now let's get back to it I think one of the inane things that's taught in modern University education is it a vast diversification is absolutely mandatory and does the income in stocks that is an insane idea the idea of reducing Risk by spreading your Capital across a wide range of stocks isn't something that has ever made sense to manga his personal wealth has always been held in a handful of companies and while Berkshire Hathaway is now a fairly diverse collection of wholly owned and partly owned businesses for much of its history it's had a concentration of capital invested in just a few good ideas it's not that easy to have a vast plethora of good opportunities that are easily identified and if you've only got three I'd rather be in my best ideas instead of my worst manga believes you should only be willing to invest in good ideas even if you can only come up with a handful of them the alternative of course would be to dilute your good ideas by holding a bunch of stocks that you have little conviction in and while modern Corporate Finance suggests that this reduces risk manga actually thinks that this increases it some people can't tell their best ideas from their worst in in the act of deciding the investment already is good they they get the thing it's better than it is we're not so smart but we kind of know where the edge of our smartness that is knowing your area of expertise is more important than having an opinion on everything this is the idea of Circle of competence there are thousands of companies you can invest in and you only need to be right on a few to do extremely well which means you're more likely to do well in investing if you stick to the Industries or business models that you have an edge over the average investor we're learning all the time how consumers behave I'm not going to be able to learn the technical aspects of businesses but that you know that be nice if I knew it but but it isn't essential related to the topic of Circle of competence and investing in what you understand well Buffett admits that he often doesn't understand the technicalities of the businesses he invests in and while it's helpful to understand the technicalities of the business it's not what is essential for you to do well over time rather it's more important to understand the characteristics and patterns of businesses that sell products consumers desire highly and so cease was a sort of breakthrough but this kind of thinking became a critical part of Buffett's investing philosophy after acquiring See's Candy in 1972 a business that seemingly sells a product that would be easy to replicate by competition has been able to build a strong brand reputation and allow them to continually raise prices for many years and Buffett's focus on consumer Behavior over understanding the technicalities of the product has led to his biggest investment today we've got a business at Apple which is and I don't understand the phone at all but I do understand consumer behavior of it isn't interested in trying to create some formula or modeling out financials into the future but rather identifying patterns that good businesses have used to maintain their competitive Advantage Berkshire owns about 94 million shares of Paramount Global as of the last published data this asset rich company is disappointed on recent quarterly earnings reports just this week slashed its dividend by 80 percent how do you see the streaming Wars evolving and do you still have conviction in your investment thesis Buffett was once again asked about Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Paramount one of the Legacy Media businesses trying to transition in this modern streaming era I would say it's not good news when any company passes a civil and it causes civil and dramatically and the streaming business is extremely interesting to watch because there's people people love to use their eyeballs watching being entertained on on a screen in front of them or a phone or whatever it may be but uh ah there's a lot of companies doing it and you need fewer companies or you need higher prices and well you need higher prices or doesn't work Buffett points out that the streaming business is extremely difficult because there's lots of companies competing for your attention and a significant subscriber base is needed for it to be done profitably Netflix the only company that's able to do streaming profitably at the moment only reached profitability just a couple of years ago after already gaining over 200 million Global subscribers so streaming will continue to be a very tough business unless competition decreases and prices can go up the eyeballs aren't going to increase dramatically in the time they can spend or it's not going to increase dramatically and you've got a bunch of companies that don't want to quit and Disney Warner Brothers Paramount and a number of other media companies are currently throwing billions of dollars to chase subscriber growth and to become profitable in streaming and as long as none of these media companies quit it's going to be a very difficult business for for everybody the ideal outcome for a business like Netflix is that some media companies bow out of the streaming Wars you'd still have a wide number of media companies producing movies and television shows but if a few of those companies bow out of the streaming Wars then the distribution of those shows would be concentrated in a few remaining survivors who could then use their competitive position to raise prices over time and make the business economically more sound what's interesting is that despite berkshire's investment in Paramount both Buffett and Munger seem pessimistic about it as a good investment I think the movie business is one tough business yeah that's my view we just touched the surface on some of these topics and over the next few weeks I'm going to be doing a deep dive on more of the clips and topics of discussion from The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting so if you want to stay up to date with all of that content the best thing you can do is go below and hit that subscribe button but for now I'll see you in the next video foreign
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