저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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제목 결론: 다음 시장 붕괴가 가장 큰 부자 기회이며, 인플레이션과 부채 문제로 다음 경제 위기는 평생 최악이 될 수 있다. 인플레이션: 러시아 인플레이션이 미국보다 심각하고, 통화 증발과 과도한 차입·지출은 역사적으로 물가 상승을 낳아 왔다. 이번에도 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니며 오래 지속될 것으로 본다. 중앙은행 비판: 옐런 등 정책당국의 '통제 중' 발언을 신뢰하지 않으며, 대부분의 중앙은행은 실패해 왔다. 역사적으로 해법은 통화 공급 축소와 금리 인상이었고, 그 과정에서 경제 문제와 큰 고통이 따른다고 본다. 부채와 다음 위기: 2008년 위기는 과다 부채 때문이었고, 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증했다(중국 포함). 2008년에는 중국이 외화 여력으로 세계를 구했지만 지금은 중국도 부채가 많아 구원자가 없다. 원자재: 인플레이션 시기에는 실물 보유 자산이 유리하다. 농산물은 수급과 통화 증발 요인으로 계속 좋을 것으로 보며, 은은 역사적으로 저평가(고점 대비 50~60% 하락)되어 수요가 있을 것으로 본다. 전기차 확산으로 구리 수요가 크게 늘어나지만 공급(광산 개발)은 부족하다. 시장 과열 경고: 강세장 말기에는 신규 투자자가 몰리고, 사기(폰지 유형)가 등장한다. 과거 사례와 같은 패턴이 반복되고 있다. 투자 조언: 쉬워 보이지만 쉬운 돈은 없다. 인터넷 핫팁을 따르지 말고, 자신이 깊이 아는 분야에만 투자하라.
다듬은 글
uh russia is a very large economy inflation in russia is much worse than it is in the u.s right now for whatever reason it's already affecting many countries in the world different degrees obviously but no it's going to affect everywhere elijah if the price of cotton goes up it goes up everywhere it doesn't go up just in the u.s it goes up everywhere and that means the price for shirts goes up everywhere no inflation is here uh it's going to get worse it's going to continue for a long time i don't know how long but certainly a long time it's always worked that way you know if for no what reason we had this staggering amount of money printing all over the world historically that has led to higher prices i presume it will continue to lead to higher prices now we have never had so much money printing in the history of the world we have never had so much borrowing and spending in the history of the world now that's always led to inflation in washington they say no don't worry we have it under control janet yellen says we want the secretary of the treasury says we will never have economic problems again because now we have figured it out she's got two ivy league degrees if you believe her elijah inflation will be over by christmas and don't worry and they won't be back well you know i sit here and i watch these things just like the rest of us and i say to myself now are they really that dumb are they just trying to keep their jobs or what is it because these people are supposedly knowledgeable we supposedly have read some economics read some history and they're supposed to know what's happening i have certainly learned in my in my experience in my career don't listen to central banks rarely do they know what they're doing and they nearly always get it wrong so i guess it's just another in a long line of central banks making foods of themselves not just in the us most central banks everywhere we've had a couple of good central bankers in the u.s we've had a couple in the world in my lifetime but most of them are charlatans at best um i do know that it's here and it's not transitory now the only choices historically have been you cut back on the money supply you stopped printing so much money you raised interest rates you stopped spending so much you but you stop borrowing so much this is the way the world has always worked maybe it's different this time elijah mrs yellen says it is different this time i hope so but i doubt it all i can see is higher interest rates somewhere along the line an economic problem then inflation gets broken eventually but that's a lot of a lot of time and a lot of pain first of all maybe we've always had economic problems periodically throughout history and then we always will we have not figured out a way to solve that problem we're still human beings so yes we will have more economic problems and elijah in 2008 we had a huge problem because of too much debt since 2008 the debt has gone up by staggering staggering amounts all over the world so that i mean even china has a lot of debt now nobody would lend money to china 20 years ago but now china even has a lot of debt which they didn't have in 2008.
so the next economic problem has to be the worst in my lifetime now i just say that as a simple statement i'm not trying to scare people or anything else i'm just saying 2008 was bad because of the debt since 2008 the debt has skyrocketed how could the next would not be the worst in my lifetime i mean that's that's like saying we have you know hurricanes in the fall it always happens that way so i would expect the next time around for it to be very very serious because the debt everywhere everywhere there's debt now in 2008 just to go back china had saved a lot of money for a rainy day and when it started raining china started spending the money and helped save the world china doesn't have china has a lot of debt now so i don't know who's going to save us this time north korea doesn't have much debt but north korea has only got 20 or 30 million people they can't save us when you have inflation prices go up so if you own the things that go up you probably will benefit you will do well when the prices go up agriculture has been going doing very well since we spoke last time i don't see any reason that's not going to continue for supply demand reasons money printing reasons certainly silver is is cheap on a historic basis silver is down 50 or 60 percent from its all-time high i would suspect that there will be demand for silver solar power users silver electric vehicles used silver speaking of electric vehicles it seems we're going to have electric vehicles electric vehicles use much more copper for instance than new pet gasoline vehicles so many of the things that are happening in the world are going to cause huge increases in demand and increases in demand especially when there's no supply causes price increases i mean we haven't been opening a lot of copper mines in a long time elijah but we are now building huge numbers of electric vehicles they use copper where's the copper going to come from mrs yellen i don't think so this has always happened whenever you have a long bull market at the end of the bull market a lot of new people come into the market they suddenly learn this is fun and you can make a lot of money and they tell all their friends and they're all sitting around talking about it by this by that it's so easy it's so much fun it's happened at the end of every bull market that i know of in history and i'm sure it will that's just the way human beings are and here they are again another thing that has often happened at the end of bull markets is spax you know spax have been around for 300 years and they show up at the end of bull markets one of the first ones 300 years ago the the people said we're not going to tell you who we are we're not going to tell you what we're going to do with your money but you must give it you should give us as much money as you can give us all of your money and we're going to make you very very rich that's all they said and people did it well that's more or less facts are saying a little bit more than that now at least they're telling us who they are etc all of these things this is not the first time this rodeo has come to town we've seen this rodeo before at least i have seen this rodeo before so yes it's happening many young people are not all young many new people are learning about this and it is fun and you can make a lot of money but it is not easy i know we all look back and say i could have bought apple this is easy you know they could yeah they could have bought apple 30 years ago but they didn't and they wouldn't have and they probably did would not have even then so it's it's happened before and it's happening again you ask what to tell young people tell i'll tell everybody this is not an easy way to make money it looks easy every once in a while but if you want to make money only invest in what you yourself know a huge amount about don't go on the internet and hear hot tips they do not get hot tips anywhere hot tips will ruin you just stay with what you know
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