저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 인플레이션이 연준과 중앙은행의 통화팽창에서 비롯되며, 물가 상승은 그 결과일 뿐이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 원인: 중앙은행이 수년간 통화를 팽창시켜 왔으나, 그 효과가 주로 주식·주택 같은 자산 가격 상승으로 나타나 많은 사람이 문제로 인식하지 못했다. 저가 수입품과 생산성 향상이 물가를 억제해 왔으나, 과도한 통화 공급이 이를 압도하고 있다. 재정적자와 연준: 미국 정부의 재정적자를 연준이 돈을 찍어 메우고 있으며, 인플레이션은 사실상 세금과 같아 실질 구매력을 빼앗는다고 설명한다. 코로나 대응 비판: 팬데믹 때는 경기 수축기였으므로 부양책이 아니라 긴축이 필요했다고 주장한다. 사람들에게 일하지 말고 돈을 계속 쓰라며 돈을 뿌린 것이 실수였고, 그 결과가 물가 급등으로 나타나고 있다고 평가한다. 저금리와 취약성: 연준이 금리를 0%로 유지하고 높은 세금으로 저축 여력이 없어 경제가 어떤 위기에도 대비되어 있지 않았다고 본다. 경제를 '핀을 찾는 거품'에 비유했다. 연준 정책 방향: 양적완화(QE)를 점진적으로 줄일 것이 아니라 즉시 중단하고, 나아가 양적긴축(QT)으로 국채와 MBS를 매각해 금리를 크게 올려야 한다고 주장한다. 이 과정에서 주식이 폭락하는 것도 막아서는 안 된다고 본다. 장기 전망: 지금 시장을 정상 가격으로 재조정하지 않으면 통화위기나 초인플레이션이 올 수 있으며, 그때의 고통이 훨씬 크다고 경고한다. 다만 초인플레이션이 확정적이거나 가장 유력한 결과는 아니고, 아직 피할 시간이 남아 있다고 본다. 국채 화폐화: 정부 부채를 연준이 돈을 찍어 사들이는 것은 통화 공급을 늘려 인플레이션을 악화시키며, 민간 대출자는 낮은 금리의 국채를 사려 하지 않을 것이라고 설명한다.
다듬은 글
well first of all i think people should have been worried about inflation for quite some time because the federal reserve and other central banks have been inflating for years it's just that a lot of that inflation was moving into financial assets and so a lot of people don't necessarily consider inflation a problem when it makes their stocks go up or it makes their our house worth more although if you're planning on buying a house the fact that house prices are going up is not a good thing because now it's more expensive for you to buy a home but i think one of the things that has been helping to offset the inflation has been increases in productivity outsourcing uh the fact that america was able to rely on lower cost imports uh to replace a lot of the goods that we used to produce ourselves and so that kind of kept the lid on consumer prices even though the government was creating a lot of inflation of course absent all that inflation uh consumers would have benefited from lower priced goods so the government robbed them of that benefit through inflation but they've now created so much money the inflationary pressures are so great that it's overwhelming those other factors that we're working to restrain prices and i think that america's ability to rely on foreign producers for all the things that we don't produce is really getting strained i mean looking at the congestion in our ports we really can't even don't even have the capacity to import the amount of stuff that we uh now require uh nor do we even have the infrastructure to unload it and transport it around the country but i do think that you're going to start to see a big increase in the cost of imports and so inflation is really going to start to manifest itself in a very big way and it's going to be a huge problem for most americans well inflation has one cause and that is the central bank because inflation literally means to expand the money supply it's money supply that is being inflated so that's where the word comes from prices go up as a result of inflation but rising prices in and of themselves are not inflation i mean prices can't inflate right prices don't expand they go up they go down but they don't expand it's the money supply that expands of course it never contracts that would be deflation we don't get that we just get continuous inflation but what drives the federal reserve to print so much money is government deficit spending so the u.s government spends a lot of money on programs that it uses to buy votes but it doesn't want to tax the voters because then it might lose their votes so there's a big gap between what the government collects in taxes and what it spends and the gap is filled by the fed that prints the money so that the government can pay its bills but that doesn't mean that america gets all this government for free we still have to cover the cost except we pay for it with inflation so inflation is like a tax and it means that our cost of living is going to go up because the government isn't taking our money it's taking the purchasing power from our money and therefore we have to pay higher prices and because we don't have an unlimited amount of money we can afford to buy less stuff when the prices are higher and that's basically the same thing as if the government had just taken our money from us and then we bought less stuff at the same prices they leave us our money but prices go up so we end up with less stuff the feds should not have funded any of those programs in fact we shouldn't have had any stimulus uh with the pandemic we needed the opposite of stimulus because the pandemic involved a lot of people just not going to work right people stopped working and so they were no longer performing services or helping to produce goods so the economy was contracting the last thing a contracting economy needs is stimulus uh because you actually need to contract the money supply along with the economy but if you just send people home and then say hey don't stop spending money so we'll print up money and give it to you that's a disaster because they're not earning money anymore so they have to reduce their spending so what we needed during the pandemic was for people to spend less because they were earning less but we made the mistake of saying look go home don't make anything but keep on spending as if you still had a job and here's the money and now we're experiencing the adverse consequences of that in massive increases in prices so the government did the wrong thing now of course had the government done nothing the recession would have been deeper and longer lasting and the bigger problem is that americans had no savings i mean we when americans stopped earning they had no money to pay the rent or or to buy groceries because they live paycheck to paycheck well why is that well because the fed keeps interest rates at zero and nobody saves and the government has such high taxes people can't even afford to save so we have this gigantic government and zero percent interest rates and that's why the economy was so ill-prepared for the pandemic i mean it was ill-prepared for any crisis it didn't matter what it was i mean we were a bubble in search of a pin and we found one yeah well the fed should not just taper qe it should halt it right now just stop doing it not just gradually reduce the amount of qe that's adding gasoline to the fire maybe they're adding less gasoline but you don't put out a fire by pouring less gasoline on it you you gotta you know stop stop that or put water on it so the fed has to go cold turkey just right now no more qe in fact we need to reverse we need quantitative tightening the federal reserve needs to start selling treasuries and mortgage-backed securities it has to let interest rates go up and not just a little bit they need to go up a lot and of course when that happens the whole house of cards literally is going to come crashing down the fed has to let stocks crash as i said we kicked a can down the road now that doesn't mean we're going to get away with it because ultimately the price that we're going to pay for not doing the right thing is going to be enormous because we are going to have a currency crisis we may have hyperinflation and all of that is much worse than just letting the markets reprice to a realistic level and letting investors lose money and forcing the government to cut spending if we continue until we have you know hyperinflation we wipe out everybody and it's the losses are going to be far more painful for a lot more people they should be worried i mean it's not like it's a guarantee or even the most likely outcome because i think we still have time to avoid hyperinflation but obviously the time will run out at some point if we if we don't do something but there is no way to avoid hyperinflation without a lot of pain now of course hyperinflation will be even more pain but we have to be willing to bite that bullet and do it to ourselves rather than waiting for the crisis to do it to us well monetize the debt is basically when you take the debt and you turn it into money but you print money and buy the debt and and so you expand the money supply but that means more inflation because private lenders aren't going to want to buy u.s treasuries at low interest rates um you know why would you do that if inflation is five percent and the government says will you loan me money at two percent why would you do that you're losing three percent um so the only way they're going to get the money is for them from the fed but the fed has to create the money has to print it and now you're you know destroying the value of the money that exists because you're increasing the supply and as you have more money the money is worth less and less
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