저자: Jason · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 5G ETF·반도체 종목 전반에 단기 약세 신호가 우세하며, 일봉 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락 가능성을 경계한다. 5G ETF(5G): 일봉 지지 24.54 근처에서 반등했으나 거래량 있는 음봉으로 장을 마감해 약세 우위. 24.54 이탈 시 다음 지지는 24.27이며 헤드앤숄더 완성 우려. 15분봉 RSI 37.16으로 과매도 직전. 내일 24.54 지지 확인 후 반등 시 롱 관찰 가능. AVGO(브로드컴): 310.56 저점 대비 종가 약 310.72 수준, 일봉 지지 309 부근이 중요. 시간봉 과매수 해소 후 309 테스트 가능성. 지지 확인 시 반등 시나리오. MRVL(마벨): 실적 발표 예정(시점 불명확), 25.77 지지 이탈 시 갭 메우기 가능. 하방 지지 25.33~25.35, 이후 2391. 실적 호재 시 저항 26.88, 28.38. SWKS: 배당락으로 차트 일부 조정. 일봉 횡보 박스권 유지, 95.29 지지 위 유지 중. 주간봉 고점·저점 상승 구조 확인 필요, EMA26 반등 관찰. ADI(아날로그디바이스): 연속 하락, EMA12·26 및 지지 이탈. 107.52 지지 근처에서 과매도 반등 가능. 110.93 이탈 시 베어 플래그 실행 예상. INSG: 급등 후 일봉 과매수(77.59), 주간 과열 근접(68.21), 시간봉은 횡보 조정(60.37). 추세 전환 전까지 대형 눌림은 기대하지 않음. 고점 추격 관망 입장. 출연자 전망 및 리스크: 전반적으로 단기 약세 우위, 지지선 이탈 시 추가 하락 가능. 반등 시나리오는 조건부이며 실적 발표 등 이벤트 리스크 존재. 과거 설명 위주로 명확한 중장기 방향 제시는 없음.
다듬은 글
hello friends Jason here for Chuck guys checking out the 5g sector again today big red day on the 5g ETF what's key is we are holding the low of 24 54 to pretty much the penny our low today 24:55 so it looks like we've bounced right off in that level and this is an important level because this is daily support we bounced here now we're coming back down to test your confirm the only thing I'm concerned about is the volume on this red candlestick and the fact that we close so close to this low if we open below tomorrow our next support is down here at 24 27 in which case we will have a full execution of this head and shoulders on a daily timeframe which is this guy well let's go he's the right indicator our head and shoulders like that so if we break 24 54 tomorrow 24:27 is the next support on deck the question I always ask myself when I'm looking at a chart is how did we get here and who's in control whereas a momentum going in the end of the day let's go to the 15-minute time frame and we can see it was all Baris all morning and bulls just didn't have much of anything that they could do they didn't maintain a slight tightening trend but momentum is definitely in the favor of the Bears right now the only upside is that they didn't set new loans directly close to the end of the day still very close to marabou so close RSI 37 16 on the 15-minute time frame another hourly not quite oversold so the best case scenario that we could see tomorrow morning would be to open right where we are see very very firm support at 24:54 and see if we can't get a bounce going into an overall trend change that idea that would be the only long position that I've been watching for today on the 5g ETF looking at a bgo now this is even more of a bearish signal because of the strength of momentum going into the close we broke right through our you may 20 ma 12 an EMA 5 we still have email 26 support and we have almost a marabou so close our low was 310 56 and a close was through 10 72 so about 20 cents and change away from the close a $300 stock that's pretty much Ameri blue is a close full momentum going into the end of the day so we have daily support at 309 psychological that would have very close to where our a May 26 is going to be tomorrow so I'll be watching that for a very very important support test it's likely going to be around the same time that 5g would test its 24:54 ideally we open above a see support right around that area and see if we can't get a bounce going because on the hourly timeframe we're getting close to you overbought in fact we were we just bounced out of it and we are at risk of going back into over punt positions again so we have a flush on the hourly time frame first thing tomorrow get us down to 3 or 9 psychological stack some bids see the responses watch the support and see if we can't get a bounce out of there on the 4 hour time frame if we are able to bounce we would have resistance at 3 1964 so good good done $10 range for us to look for on a BGO tomorrow on mr VL on the daily similarly a big red ugly candlestick earnings coming up on well tomorrow not sure if it's pre market or after-hours so please do your research on that one likely we will just break whatever I'm going to analyze we have support at 25 77 if we lose that we got a big gap to fill here and we certainly could do that on poor earnings just create another gap in which case we're going to find support at the previous resistance level around 25 33 let's get an actual locked-in value 25 35 so that would be an important support because it's been resistance before below that we were looking for daily support of 2391 if somehow Bulls managed to have good earnings we will look for resistance in the area of 2688 that's been a double top for us and then way up here 28 38 another area of doubles hop-on mr VL who controlled the day that's what I want to know obviously we had a similar drop like the 5g pretty much nothing all day just complete sideways action into a slow but steady bleed as Bears picked up the volume into the close very very close to marabou so close that's wks as I think is the only one who didn't have a monster red day today and it looks like it's a dividends day so that does adjust the chart a little bit but we have a nice indecision candlestick we are still in a daily tightening range and we have support all the way down to 95 29 as long as we stay above that we are going to be in this tightening range looks but better on the weekly timeframe not enough data to really get a good analysis well this is what we're looking for high higher low lower high now we need to see if we can get a higher low still a tightening range on s W K s so what we're gonna be looking for would be in the perfect world a nice little bounce off of our EMA 26 look for reversal on the 5 and 15 see if we can't catch a little bit of strength if the overall market moves in our favour today was a big red day so let's see what we do tomorrow Adi another red day not nearly strong as the first couple that we looked at we have lost EMI 12 26 and you may v support we Abdullah support down at the low of our big green candlestick 107 to 52 a long way to go likely we would see an oversold bounce before we can down there our size almost at sub 30 levels nice little tightening range here if we lose today's and low which would be 110 98 these magnets man 110 93 should we lose that level that would be an execution of the Bear Flag that we were saying support does not exist until 107 52 in which case we would have a nice oversold hourly setup and a good bounce potential our NSG continues to blow my socks off I was looking for daily consolidation from way back here on the 26th and that's what I'm still looking for congratulations to anyone who managed to jump into this tornado and survive a lot of volatility and both just have not given up so very impressive on the daily timeframe we're still over bought at 77 59 I'm a weekly got to be getting close 68 21 for our time frame and I bet pretty much everyone is getting overbought hourly is 60 37 so at least we're seeing some hourly consolidation which means this is the trend that we need to watch as soon as we see a trend change in trend and we start losing our higher lows higher highs then we can start expecting more consistent and thorough consolidation I'm still looking for it I don't want to see it on the daily timeframe I'm very very interested - and I NSG missed my opportunity down here I'm not going to miss the next one so keep a close eye on this don't expect a massive pull back because bulls definitely need to take a rest but we are in pretty much a blue sky territory as soon as we get our consolidation will be following on very closely in the chat and a lot of opportunity here we'll see how it develops anyway that's it get him back into the saddle busy week with the Black Friday sale haven't been paying much attention to the markets over the holidays I'm excited for the week ahead anyway guys thank you so much for watching I appreciate everything that you do and your comments and all that cool stuff and I'll talk to you tomorrow
Comments 0