저자: Jason · 외국인
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결론: 5G ETF·AVGO·MRVL·SWKS·INSG 전반이 단기 하락 압력 속에 지지선 테스트 중이며, 내일 추가 하락 가능성을 열어두고 핵심 지지·저항 레벨을 기준으로 대응 시나리오를 준비하라는 기술적 분석 영상. 5G ETF: 당일 거래량이 2019년 4월 이후 가장 큰 수준의 매도 물량이 나왔고, 장 마감이 저가 근처에 머물러 24.15 재테스트를 예상. 24.15~24.13이 핵심 지지선이며 이탈 시 하락 가속, 24.72가 핵심 저항(방향 전환 조건). 추가 하락 쪽에 무게를 둠. AVGO: 일봉상 연속 3개 도지형 캔들로 우유부단한 흐름. 5월 26일 부근 저항과 EMA5 돌파가 상승 전환 조건. 하락 시 307.13·303.13 지지 주시, 단기 4시간봉에서는 매수세가 약간 우위. MRVL: 일봉 지지 23.30 부근 가능성 높고 2294가 추가 지지. 과매도권 진입 중이며 23.30 이탈 후 급락 시 반등 기대, 지지 유지 시 저위험 롱 진입 가능, 이탈 시 청산 시나리오 제시. SWKS: 일봉·4시간봉에서 수렴 구간 형성, 133 고점 돌파 여부와 95.63 이상 저점 유지가 관건. 100 이하 개장 시 하방 확인. INSG: 장중 큰 상승 후 차익 실현 매물이 많아 내일 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 헤드앤숄더 또는 베어 플래그 형태 가능성, 6.44 이탈 시 하락 지속, 6.32 이탈 주의, EMA6 돌파 시 추세 전환 가능. 리스크: 모든 시나리오는 가격 행동 기반 조건부 대응이며 명확한 확신 결론은 제시되지 않음. 진입·손절·청산 원칙을 미리 정하라는 강조.
다듬은 글
well friends Jason here checking out the 5g sector again today in today's 5g ETF we see a lot of this continuation that we saw between the last couple days and that is a big oscillation between our low with bull strength there are a versatile candlestick with that bearish momentum we open right in the middle of the candlestick today and we saw a lot of volume to the downside and this volume is quite substantial we haven't seen this much volume for quite a long time at least back till April 2019 so what that means will be determined as we investigate but it's definitely not worthy and this is gonna be a lot of momentum to the downside again close very close to the low of day so I will be looking for another test to 24 15 and lasts somehow magically things turn around before free market that's the direction that I'm leaning 24 15 is a key level for us to hold below that we have some support here the low of 24 13 so really we can just consider that to be one big line in the sand 24 15 to 24 13 and then we're started looking at these other days should we break those levels both things dirtballs turn things around 24 72 is gonna be the key level and on the daily at 2500 4 or just 25 psychological looking at the 15-minute timeframe today here is that big move to the upside gave a lot of that back lost a lot in the morning and then we just continually get rejected from our mi-26 on the way down so not a huge downside momentum but the fact that we are so heavy down here is pretty key and check this out on the 15-minute time frame that one candlestick accounts for the vast majority of the volume on 5g today and in fact it's one 5 minute time frame it's one 3 minute time frame and what we're doing here is drilling down to see was this one order or was this a large collection of individual orders and it looks like someone was particularly interested in accumulating a lot of the 5g ETF and based on this candlestick it looks like there was a bid that was dumped into so that is not as positive as we could hope but it is still a large bet in a direction and we're paying close attention to that direction with the expectation of further downside tomorrow based on today's candlestick that's why we drill down that's why we interested and the volume to see what story is the volume telling us checking out AVG Oh in the daily timeframe this is not a bad candlestick as another indecision candlestick here so one two three in a row still rejecting from Rani may 26 and our EMA five would need to get over both of those to continue to the upside on the daily timeframe I'm going to be interested in breaking those levels in today's high 312 46 and then I'll be looking at three 1793 to the downside today is the low of day and more importantly is the last couple 307 13 and then 303 13 and the four hour time frame Bulls are going to be ever so slightly in charge it's not as another beautiful eloquent pattern here possible counter trend to this overall downtrend but we are seeing bullish strength on the short term and the four hour time frame rejecting from our EMA 26 so you've got a couple key averages in the four hour and the daily they need to get over hourly timeframe bowls are nice and in control ignoring this after hours wick we're setting higher highs and higher lows so as long as that continues they're going to be okay but every time we get a new high we seem to pull back and we did not manage to get a new high over our pre market levels this morning so that is gonna be a key level for us to watch tomorrow should we continue the upside 312 46 M or VL on the daily timeframe how are we looking here not as good so coming back down heading to the direction of our low at 23:30 this is a daily support level and it's very likely based on these two candlesticks and the best case scenario you actually would be for us to open right about here flush down to that area of 23 30 maybe even break it just a little bit and see if we can't get a bounce going at that point 23 30 2294 are the key supports on MRV on a daily timeframe we're gonna have a lot of momentum right now to the downside which means we're gonna be getting into some oversold conditions on the daily timeframe 3162 so we're getting closer oversold for our timeframe 29:49 starting to see a little bit of a slowdown here as we approach these levels on the hourly still oversold 28 30 this is where we started looking for some sort of a sign some sort of a pattern do we see a wedge is there anything that can give us a little bit of a heads-up hour or 50 minute time frame is that 38 so we're oversold in a lot of places and what we start to do is look for patterns something that can help us give us a little bit of insight and we may have a tightening range here I'm going to wait to see what it's tomorrow before I really play this with any amount of confidence but ultimately we're just looking to connect some dots and see what fits and you know what it doesn't quite fit as elegantly as I would like so I will just go back to playing my price action and what I would love to see tomorrow morning on Mr VL would be for us to open pretty much where we are now get that flush see if we can't actually break 2330 see what's on the other side of that if we start ripping a lot of market stop orders get a quick flush down that might just extend us further far enough to get a real good bounce going it's a wait and see watch what happens and plan for scenarios if we hold 23 30 you bounce a few times you can take a low risk entry on that get a long position break and exit on the other side of 23 30 so 23 28 something like that alternatively you look for that quick flush see what happens when we flush it do we get a big bear follow-through or do we just simply drop below and see balls really poor on the speed a lot of scenarios got to be prepared for everything basically on swk us and the daily time for him today is a little bit stronger than I anticipated I thought we would go back to the downside like we saw in the 5g ETF itself we broke the high 111 so today's high 133 is going to be an important level for us still an indecision candlestick and we got one on 112 as a resistance for us as well on the four-hour timeframe so far we are continuing a tightening range so we may set up a 4-hour equilibrium in which case we would look for a higher low sometime either tomorrow or the day after above 95 63 which would have us coming down sitting that higher low and continuing this range that would be great really good if we open below 100 133 tomorrow we would look for a break of that and good follow-through and see if that bulls can't get something going with a little more positivity and pizzazz behind it 80 on the daily timeframe a little bit of a tightening range continues here somewhat similar setup so what we would look for at this point would either be a break of 160 and 31 and today's high a day or a little bit of a pullback and see if I can get a higher low over 100 867 very similar to what we just talked about on SKS you can see how this potential tightening range is setting up on I and SG a big day today big bull Porsche on decent volume but we saw a lot of profit taking much more so than we have seen previously so that is likely hesitate to say this because of how strong I and SG has been but it is likely we're gonna see more downside tomorrow because of the volume and the bearish attack that we have seen today if this is the bullish last-ditch effort exhaustion point push to the upside to break 7 psychological that would mean that there's not a lot of momentum or energy left the Bulls will be exhausted and this would be the barest opportunity to strike so in order to understand that we need to go check on the sub timeframes see what happened potential for Head & Shoulders type pattern here with our high our head look for a lower high tomorrow and then downside that's certainly something that we could look for ultimately we would be just paying attention to the loss of $6 32 cents we have the possibility of setting up a little bit of a bear flag right here and you can see this forming up so I would be watching this for continuation of the downside with a break of $6 44 cents alternatively Bulls could step it up get over top of our EMA 6 chai to change a trend in which case I'm just gonna go back to the 4-hour and look for that higher low underneath the seven dollars and eight cents and that's when I would be watching it's a lot of watching a lot of scenarios and that's what technical analysis is all about wait till those situations come to you you're prepared for them you know what to expect you know what your plan is you get your entry you get your stop-loss wait for your exit it's beautiful
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