Nvidia Stock Analysis 2019! Is NVDA Stock a Buy? 📈

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엔비디아 2019년 주가 전망: 2019년은 엔비디아와 대부분 반도체 주식에 강한 해가 아니며, 2019년 말~2020년쯤 바닥을 다지고 5G와 자율주행으로 반등할 것으로 봄 [실적 하향 배경] - 엔비디아는 4분기 매출 가이던스를 약 34억 달러에서 27억 달러로 낮췄고, 이후 22억 달러로 재차 하향 - 최초 가이던스 대비 약 35% 낮아진 수준, 주가는 고점 대비 약 60% 하락 [밸류에이션] - PER 20 미만으로 성장률 대비 매력적인 밸류에이션 - 향후 5~10년 성장을 감안하면 주가 130달러대는 저평가라는 견해 [리스크 요인] - 중국 시장 약세가 3~5년간 지속될지가 핵심 변수 - 반도체는 경기 사이클이 뚜렷한 업종이며, 마이크론 등 동종 업체처럼 실적이 좋아도 주가가 고점 대비 크게 빠질 수 있음 - 자율주행·AI 열풍이 수년 내 식지 않는 것이 전제 [중장기 전망] - 3~5년 보유 관점에서 주가는 현재보다 훨씬 높아질 것으로 봄 - 자율주행차 확산으로 엔비디아 칩 수요가 늘어날 것으로 기대 - 5G 스마트폰 보급으로 반도체 판매가 크게 늘고 가격도 다시 오를 것으로 전망 [단기 전망과 대응] - 가이던스가 두 번 낮아져 주가 하락이 어느 정도 반영되었으나, 향후 몇 달~2019년 내내 주가가 계속 하락(흘러내림)할 가능성을 봄 - 주가가 100달러, 나아가 90달러대까지 내려갈 수 있다고 언급 - 이 가격대에서 분할 매수(평균 단가 낮추기)를 권장 [결론] - 2019년은 투자자가 엔비디아에 큰 포지션을 쌓기 좋은 해로 제시 - 실적 발표 전후 추가 하락 가능성 언급 [출연자 전망] - 진행자 본인은 엔비디아를 3~5년 보유 종목으로 보유 중이라고 밝힘

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01. so boy oh boy do we have some big news today that came out from Nvidia so it's been about 2 months since Nvidia came out and actually revised for quarter 4 for their guidance and they lowered their guidance due to weak outlook for quarter 4 this was a drastic revision back in November and they dropped their guidance from around $3.4 billion for Revenue to around $2.7 billion for Revenue which is about a 20% reduction they also stated in that release that this prediction could fluctuate around 2% or so so that number is n really set in stone so this of course caused the stock to dip to lows that we haven't seen in quite a while and we actually saw prices in the 120s for NVIDIA which is absolutely insane well the bad news unfortunately continues because this morning Nvidia CEO came out and once again revised lower for guidance so we're going to get into that right now but guys if you're new here make sure to hit that subscribe button down below don't forget to drop a huge like on this video as well let's try to get 100 likes on this video and also let me know in the comment section down below if you're an Nvidia stock shareholder I'm really curious to see how many many of you are so like I said the CEO has come out and revised guidance again for quarter for 2018 and this time they've lowered it from 2.7 billion to 2.2 billion so this makes it a 18.5% reduction from the 2.7 billion which is much more than the 2% that they were predicting initially and of course when're looking at the original number that they set for guidance last year which was 3.4 billion this is a 35% reduction from that so now in looking at this and now look look at this new revised revised guidance it's all starting to make sense why Nvidia stock dropped so drastically at the tln there 2018 guys from its highs you can see here that the stock is down almost 60% and at first with the revision and guidance in November I thought the move was an overreaction really from the market but now with the revised guidance lower again it may be an exaggerated move yes but I think it's a more reasonable move now when you look at Nvidia from a fundamental level though like the key facts at the PE and all that kind of stuff it's a very attractive valuation for what the company does and how much they plan to grow over the next say 5 10 years they have a PE currently under 20 which is very attractive and this is actually much lower than other companies which don't grow nearly as fast as a company like Nvidia however the company does have a few things going against it as we enter 2019 and these things started become more relevant in 2018 Tor 2018 so let's talk about those things right now the the first of course which we have to address is what the CEO stated in this revised revised letter where they said that China is a concern and really China has been the culprit for many American companies either missing on their earnings or revising lower on their guidance even companies like apple had to revise lore because of China however the real question that you need to ask yourself as an investor is do you see these issues and weakness in China continuing over the longer term say over the next 3 to 5 years so 3 to 5 years is is kind of my holding time for NVIDIA and actually most of my stocks in my portfolio and if you ask me where do I see Nvidia in 3 to 5 years I think that the stock will be much higher I think it would have adjusted for all of this weakness in China and I think we would be back on track to a very strong Growth Company do I think that a price tag of $130 per share for a stock like Nvidia is undervalued absolutely and because Nvidia is the leader in things like Automation and self-driving AI all that kind of stuff I think that they're in a great position to succeed over the longer term and I think the market is really undervaluing this company and its potential for the long term now of course this is true as long as the fad of self-driving Ai and automation all that kind of stuff doesn't die out in the next few years so the other big thing pulling in video down which we have to address here is the cyclicality nature of semiconductor stocks so typically semiconductor stocks behave in a more cyclical nature so they're up for a few years and they're down for a few years and they're back up and so on and so forth and this is because semiconduct stocks are almost traded like a commodity and if you go out there and look at some semiconductor stocks you can see that they're trading at extremely low price to earnings ratios but the price of the stock is still somewhere like 50 60% lower from its highs that's because with things like memory prices dropping these companies won't earn as much and then investors aren't as excited to invest in these companies a perfect example of this is Micron which you can take a look at the chart here and you can see that it's down almost 50% from its Highs at one point even higher than 50% even though they're posting record record earnings in the last year and this is just the nature of the industry and it's something you have to accept when you're investing in stocks in the semiconductor space when you have stocks like Micron Applied Materials even lamb research pulling down the whole sector because of their cyclical nature Nvidia is in that basket and it's going to get pulled down as well but in my opinion I believe this is not really a concern when you're looking 3 to 5 years out and like I mentioned the Big Driver for this in my opinion will be self-driving cars and as more manufacturers implement this into their cars they're going to look at Nvidia companies like Nvidia I think most likely Nvidia cuz they're the leaders in that space to buy their chips and put it into their cars and the other big thing I see happening in the next few years is 5G mentioned that before I think that's where apple is going to shine and I also think that's where a lot of semiconductor stocks are going to shine because of that so when people go out and they want to buy new 5G phones a lot of these semiconductor companies are going to see a huge ramp up in sales again and prices will most likely start to climb once again and I believe both of these things will come to fruition over the next 3 to 5 years maybe even sooner but this is kind of the time frame that I'm looking at for these stocks especially Nvidia so at this point you may be wondering is nvidia's stock still a buy well like I said the valuation in my opinion is very attractive it's very reasonable but I still think the stock has more room to fall they've already lowered their guidance twice and this pretty much means that the price movement is more or less factored into the stock or priced into the stock now for the upcoming earnings report however in my opinion I think the stock will continue to trickle off off over the next few months or so maybe even continue trickling off throughout 2019 into 2020 but I think that's where the opportunity for NVIDIA Lies when you see a company like Nvidia trading at such low prices it's very hard to resist picking up some shares and just averaging into your position over time I think that we could even see prices as low as $100 per share and I covered that in a video which I'll link up here so check that out if you haven't and it wouldn't surprise me even if we dip a little below $100 per shares in the '90s or so just because of all the things going against Nvidia like we discussed year in 2019 so really in conclusion I don't think that 2019 will be a strong year for Nvidia stock or most semiconductor stocks in general I believe where maybe bottoming out from the lower end of the cycle here maybe towards the end of 2019 maybe even into 2020 like I said 5G I think will be the first thing that ramps things up once again but I think that 2019 will be a perfect year for investors to go in and build a strong large position in the stock like Nvidia so once again guys I'd be really curious to find out if you're an investor in Nvidia comment that down below and let me know let me know what your price prediction is for the stock as well by the end of 2019 and we can always come back and revisit this video in 2020 hope you enjoyed this video hope you learned something from this video don't forget to invest positively guys and I'll see you in the next one peace