저자: ZachMir · 외국인
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테슬라 주간 차트 분석. 최근 상승추세선 이탈 후 주요 지지선(170~165달러) 방어 여부가 핵심이며, 200달러 회복 시 반등 가능성을 제시. 200달러 회복 후 240~260달러 복귀를 기대하는 낙관 시나리오와 165달러 하회 시 하락 경계 시나리오를 함께 제시.
다듬은 글
that's what needs to happen whether it's in the next week or two but it needs to happen pretty quickly otherwise a chance there's a chance of you know obviously a much deeper dive so this is make for break here all right guys hello and welcome so if you are uh one of the people who follow the chart of Tesla you're in great luck because in this particular video I have my good friend and analyst Zach Mir and we're going to cover the chart of Tesla what does he think about the Tesla chart is it possible that Tesla has topped or do we have more upside on Tesla stock what does he think all right guys join us okay welcome back Zack thanks very much indeed now are you by any chance before we look at the chart of Tesla are you uh what people call a Tesla bro like crypto Bros and Tesla Bros are you one of those guys or there's nothing wrong if you are by the way I mean those guys are fine with me absolutely cool the uh the bro uh name earlier arrived relatively late in my life and somebody calls me bro I recoil in horror because uh I'm not normally uh I don't actually have a brother so for me it's gentleman sir and other stuff like that so I'm not I would be a I would be a Tesla gentleman if I Tesla gentlem okay uh I mean there's a lot of folks out there who obviously love anything that Elon Musk does um that's fine he's he's a cool guy uh I don't agree with everything he says um but generally I can understand why people like him and why people like Tesla too uh one of my good friends uh has been short on Tesla for a very long time and has he's done really well by being short he's been long actually I think he's he's short as a hedge but he's long as well so he's long and short let's let's go on the chart of Tesla now and cover that so as we can see this is the weekly chart of Tesla now you may recall been following my analysis we've caught many of the movements on Tesla from the 2023 lows um of course we haven't been right all the time now you mentioned in my previous video These important support levels that uh Tesla has just dropped down to I have to say I was a bit surprised that Tesla broke down below this trend line support I was hoping it could actually hold the trend line and that we've got there nevertheless it has broken it but the interesting thing is that Tesla has not as yet anyway broken below these support levels that I mentioned in my previous video These are people mentioned what are these support levels these are projections of previous waves symmetrical projections and also the 7 88.6% retracement at 183 and also 178 so I would say this is a very important support level for Tesla which I want to see protected as I mentioned in my previous video on Tesla if Tesla were to make a sustained move below these level especially especially below 170 I don't think I can maintain a long-term bullish view uh for Tesla uh if we fall in my view if we fall below 170 and close below 170 and especially if we take then take out these lows of Summer big of Pardon spring uh April last year more or less so I think if we take out these lows as well near 165 I'm not saying it's going to happen but if we were to fall below that as well then I think Tesla would be done and would have topped with a high probability but what does Zach think does Zach think that Tesla has topped near these levels that we made near the the summer highs or do you think we have one more push higher uh so I'm gonna ask Zack what he thinks because there is there is one way Zack if you don't mind there are two potential wave counts here in my view and you can you can uh also bring your view on this as well one wave count is this was an ABC rally a corrective rally which then completed and topped in other words in this wave count Tesla has already topped at these levels the levels near um 280 or 300 approximately there the other view is that let me show you this other alternative view the other View is that if Tesla was to get back above these levels like 240 or 260 what may be happening is something like this and this elongated extended ABC count like you see here ABC uh for another seawave like this which would mean along something like this so this is the alternative wave count I don't think Tesla is likely to go to all-time highs I think it's less likely given the breakdown we've had below this trend line I'm not saying it's impossible I'm just saying it's less likely at the present moment uh but I think it's possible for a bullish case to be made on Tesla that if Tesla was to go back above 240 and 260 it might potentially make a move to let's say this this level 340 to 330 levels like this and would be something like along these lines okay maybe even up to 377 here uh and this elongated ABC kind of correction that would be something along these lines a wve b-wave and then a c-wave something like and that would complete the entire corrective rally okay that's really what I think so it's either that or the previous wave count that this one what do you think Zack overall what's your view uh I think that hopefully we are where we were at that point B I.E there was a breakdown below the 165 area that kind of thing and looked like it was all over and then and then the market recovered and sorry which B are we talking about the black B the black yeah the black be there from April May last year okay ideally we are there we broken a level which was the Autumn or fall support for this Market just around the $200 level we broken that it's a sort of false breakdown and then we go back up again and Tesla being Tesla has uh caused people a short of it to get completely caught out by those kind of false breaks to the downside uh so that is what I'm hoping for sorry I'm a bit confused here could you explain what you mean by this uh you're you're hoping for I'm say I'm saying that the current breakdown below $200 is equivalent to the breakdown that we had back in the spring of last year uh below1 see5 so that's the hope that's the bullish you know that's the Tes bro type of view there a false breakdown and uh you saying something like this or is this kind of so so you so you've got it right we'll we'll Bounce from current levels and head up towards the main resistance line there around two $260 uh over the next three months so that's the good that's the good part um and Tesla has been good at uh you know he did the same thing basically with that false breakdown uh in the in the Autumn or in the fall uh below 220 and then it rallied after that so Tesla's very good at giving those false breakdowns so rebound so we've had those uh over the last two years in fact we've had all the lows have been off be trap rebounds which resistance I mean I know you look at you look at key levels but which resistance would have to break for you to give you the green light that just the just the just last just last week's resistance which is 195 or whatever it's not it's not a big deal here and also we because of that all your Fibonacci and everything else no no lower than that lower than that just lower than that yeah it's a be trap from below the the the the October low October November low that we had there just near the $200 so so um on a on a bullish Tack and with the Fibonacci an agreement basically the next week would have to be the turnaround week to the upside so if we can get a close above 200 200 level yes exactly then we then we can be back up to the 240 250 260 area that's that's what needs to happen whether it's in the next week or two but it needs to happen pretty quickly otherwise chance there's a chance of um you know obviously much deeper dive you can't even rule out 2022 support um you can't rule that out either so this is make for break here but the good news is I said is that the main turnarounds we've had in the last couple of years have all been from a you know a $15 um overshoot on previous support and then back up again and just lastly if Tesla is topped if it's topped which is possible yeah um I mean I personally would I I would have to see more follow through below support like 170 or even below the lows of B like 165 would you agree with that I mean if we break if you're correct and I think you made a good point here just a few minutes ago that if Tesla does not turn around sooner and instead breaks down further especially if it then breaks down below 165 then I think it's done right I mean that would mean we've topped at these levels 165 would be I mean that's enough I think you know even if you're caught out even if there's a bear trap there 165 is is is the worst you might want to risk and in fact obviously the early warning on the latest breakdown was the break of that uptrend line that you've shown near yeah exactly yeah that was I mean that was the Bea I mean I actually wrote about that or talked about that that was a very nice early early early bird warning in terms of the breakdown because the following week things went hair shaped quite quite badly so there we are okay thanks very much Zach so basically 200 level is the key first resistance for Tesla to prove to us that he wants to bottom here yeah we're not saying bottom just yet it's still a bit of risk and then above that you want to probably see a bit more follow through Above This but overall once we get you're saying once we get if we get above 200 then we we be back in the range we've done it be back in the range we can make new high so it is all about the next week or two yeah very interesting time to look at the stock so one thing I haven't covered though Zach that if if Tesla were to if Tesla was to break down further below 165 you think that it could then go to the lows of 2023 yeah I think I think we've done enough of the sort of because we've had all that 22 and 23 uh the the last two years a lot of that trying to get back up there trying to get through that $300 Mark and 280 Mark that's enough now I think you know it would it would mean that we would go would go and test the lows the lay of the land isn't great in terms of lithium well lithium prices are reflecting the EV the EV Revolution sort of stalled a bit they've extended on fossil fuels um you know sort of banning fossil fuel cars and new production etc etc that's a 5year I think delay in Europe Etc and so it just means that um Tesla's getting you know a lot of Pretenders to the throne yeah and uh you've got the issues with supply of minerals and commodities as well so um just it's a tough time it's a tough time yes yes absolutely thanks very much indeed Z that's really interesting and appreciate it guys make sure you go ahead and check Zach's Twitter feed Twitter handle at Zack's Traders Cafe I follow him as well publes great material there and also watch Zach's weekly video uh the members video where it covers the charts of uh Bitcoin crypto charts and also Tesla as well thank you very much indeed Zack really appreciate it thank you
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