저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 과도한 통화팽창과 재정 무책임이 시스템을 망가뜨리고 있다고 경고하며, 금·은 등 귀금속이 구매력 보존 수단으로 남는다고 주장. 미국 금리가 상승하면 주식·부동산 붕괴 위험이 있다고 봄. 금은 현 수준에서 싸지 않다고 언급하고 원유·밀·옥수수·대두가 금 대비 상대적으로 저렴하다고 평가. 글로벌 투자자의 귀금속 비중은 1~2%에 불과하고 ETF 보유도 작다고 지적. 과거 일본 주식 붕괴와 나스닥 사례를 언급하며 Mac7·반도체 밸류에이션이 버블 단계라고 평가.
다듬은 글
I want to tell you the outcome because I have helped numerous poor people. The first minor storm that occurs after they received say the sort of money that you are talking about and I gave people much more. The first is they sell it. You can give to someone a coin of gold worth say $10,000 or whatnot.
They have a slight problem either with their children or their parents or whatnot. They give it away. If you take a little bit they own an earring in gold or an ounce in gold, but not a ton of gold or the kilo of gold. No, that they don't own and most people I want to tell you as the price started to go up for gold and silver, they sold it.
We can measure how much money is in the ETFs. Very small. The global financial system is flashing warning signs that most investors are choosing to ignore. From rising interest rates and ballooning US debt to geopolitical instability and a dramatic widening of wealth inequality, the cracks in the foundation are becoming impossible to overlook.
At the center of the debate is a critical question. Are we heading into a deflationary collapse or currency destroying inflationary spiral and how should ordinary investors protect themselves? Marc Faber, the renowned Swiss investor economist and publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report argues that the real danger lies not in any single market event, but in decades of reckless monetary intervention by central banks and governments that have left the system fundamentally rotten.
Drawing on his more than five decades of financial market experience beginning in 1970, Faber warns that precious metals remain one of the few genuine stores of purchasing power in an era of money printing and fiscal irresponsibility, while most investors remain dangerously underweight in real assets.
Now, we present the clips from Mark Faber's interview. Before we continue to discuss this, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thank you, and enjoy the video. I mean, there are periods and I would just looked today at the chart of the 10-year Japanese bond. Do you know what the yield was in 1990 of the 10-year Japanese bond?
I don't. 7%. Wow. This is a remarkable thing if in financial history. You have the stock market in Japan being the largest stock market by market cap in 1989. I mean, the peak was December 31st, 1989. Then the market start to go down. And as you said, uh, the market cap was over 4 50% of the world and it it went down to like like less than 5% now.
And then at the same time, interest rates went down and you had in history one of the biggest bull markets in bond prices. I mean, the 10-year went to almost 0%. It was remarkable. I was also in the US in May 2020, the low for the 10-year US Treasury was 0.57%. We are now at 4% something. And this is something investors should think about.
What will interest rates do in the US? Because I give you two scenarios. One scenario would argue bond prices will rally because the economy will be bad and so forth and because the Fed and the Trump will print money. Okay, this is a scenario. In my view, this scenario is possible, but only, this is the precondition, only if the economy is slumping and you need a big downturn in economic activity.
And even then, there are some question marks because the debt level in the US is so Some people will wonder, I mean, how can the US pay the interest and how can they pay the debt in the long run? But let's assume the economy is very bad and there's a flight to safety. So people take money out of stocks which are in the sky and buy bonds which are under owned and at the lower end.
I'm not saying very cheap, but lower end. The other scenario is that interest rates go up. Why would they go up? Because the money printing by the Trump administration and it's going hard. Lift the rate of price increases dramatically and as a result interest rates at the long end which the Fed The Fed doesn't control all interest rates.
They control the Fed funds rate, but the other interest rates they don't really control. That the long rates go up and create a huge problem. Yeah, I mean, equity prices and home prices will collapse if interest rates go up substantially. Collapse, I have to define against what? Because in nominal terms it is conceivable that the Dow Jones goes to 100,000, but that the dollar loses its value by 90% against a stable currency which I would consider to be gold, silver, and platinum, not cryptos and not stable coins with a stamp of Trump.
I wouldn't buy I might buy it as a collector's item. I want to tell you the outcome because I have helped numerous poor people. The first minor storm that occurs after they received say the sort of money that you are talking about and I gave people much more. The first is they sell it. You can give to someone a coin of gold worth say $10,000 or what not.
They have a slight problem either with their children or their parents or what not. They give it away. And in that environment, I want to be diversified and I'm not saying that gold is cheap here. No, because oil is much cheaper. You know, we can compare prices. So, oil is cheap against gold and wheat and corn and soybean is cheap against gold.
Coffee is relatively high and so forth and so on. But one thing is evident to me. Whatever happens, I think the precious metals will kind of maintain their purchasing power because globally people have a maximum of 1 or 2% of their assets in gold. They don't have much gold. If you go to a cocktail party in New York and so forth.
And then of course, the women will say, "Yeah, we own gold and so forth." If you take a little bit down an earring in gold or an ounce in gold, but not like a ton of gold or a kilo of gold. No, that they don't own and most people, I want to tell you as the price started to go up for gold and silver, they sold it.
We can measure how much money is in the ETFs. Very small. The analysis laid out in the interview cuts to the heart of a dilemma every serious investor faces today. On one hand, a severe economic downturn could trigger a flight to safety pushing bond prices higher as the Fed is forced to print money to prevent collapse.
On the other hand, unchecked money printing by the current administration could ignite a new wave of inflation sending long-term interest rates which the Fed does not control sharply higher. In that scenario, equity prices and real estate values could collapse in real terms, even if they appear to rise in nominal dollars.
The Dow Jones could theoretically reach 100,000 while the dollar simultaneously loses 90% of its value against gold and silver. The lesson is sobering. Nominal gains mean nothing if the currency measuring them is being quietly destroyed. Now, let's get back to the interview. What you say it used to be during COVID, crazy.
It's still crazy. Now we have all kinds of aggressive moves by world powers and I'm afraid it may not end so well. And since we talk, many markets have gone ballistic. I mean, many assets have gone up substantially in price and others have gone down. And so there were big movements in markets to make money.
I mean, let's say when we last talked, nobody was interested in precious metals. This has changed. I'm not saying that all your viewers should rush out and buy gold and silver and platinum, but this has been a big change over the last 2 years. The outperformance of precious metals against financial assets.
I'm an economist and I studied economics, but I wrote a thesis about mostly fiscal and financial policy, fiscal and monetary policy, and financial reforms in the 19th century. And I mean, I have to say I'm sort of surprised how much money I suddenly have. Hard to believe, you know, that you have a stock portfolio and you have a portfolio of precious metals and suddenly the value goes up that much.
And then you say to yourself, "The wealth inequality has grown dramatically because I worked since 1970 and therefore I always had savings and surplus income. I had more income than I used and therefore I have assets and these assets have gone up a lot in value. And I'm thinking about the 50% of Americans that have no assets.
Or if you look at the global population, most people have nothing. I live here in Thailand in the north. I see it every day. There are people they go to bed. They have maybe $100 in total wealth. You know, I mean it's really in some cases heartbreaking. But I was fortunate and therefore I have assets.
Although I as a social observer, as an economic historian, as an economist and also as a sort of political philosopher, I have to say that the system is rotten because in a society basically you want to be a a society like the US in the 19th century. Why did people want to go to the US in the first place?
Because the op- portunities were so much better in America than in Europe. So they all fled to the US and went to the US not because of social security, not because of all kinds of benefits. They went because if they worked hard, they could improve their lives, which was not a given in Europe. So when to the US, the population of the US grew from 4 million in an 1800 to 80 million in 1900 and there was no inflation.
Why you there was no inflation? Very simple. There were no stupid economists and central bankers that destroyed the economic system through interventions which they have no clue about. The prime example of interventions without any clue is Mr. Trump. He's a clueless interventionist. I would have voted it for him anytime compared to say Kamala Harris and Mr.
Bush, but he's an ignorant interventionist that is dangerous. But anyway, what I wanted to say is so you know, I look at my Saturn wealth because assets went up and I said to myself, can it go on forever? No. Now you will say, Mark, we talked about this already 10 years ago. And you said it won't go on forever and it's still going on.
And I would respond, yes, you're right. I started to work in 1970. In 71, Nixon went off the gold standard and inflation picked up and then in around 1980, I met a strategist at Merrill Lynch. They all said a debt collapse is going to happen soon. These were the famous strategists Stan Salvigsen and Aronstein, Mike Aronstein, and Charlie Minter.
And they predicted that the whole debt system in America would collapse by the end of the '80s. Well, we had a crash in '87, but it's remarkable how the system held together. Especially, you know, I I had I had predicted the '87 crash. I accidentally happened the next day. Anyway, but then one of my major predictions was the collapse of the Japanese stock market.
So, '89, Japan was more than 50% of the world stock market capitalization. And my view was that if Japan would go down, it would affect other markets. Yes, it affected the money flowed out of Japan into other markets, and they performed well like the Nasdaq, you know. When you look at predictions, a lot of things happen, but the impact is different than what you thought.
A collapse in Nasdaq stocks now, in the Mac 7, which are in a bubble stage very clearly. The valuations are sky-high, and semiconductors as well, and so forth. And then, we could have other markets going up. It's like last year, foreign markets, European markets, almost all European markets outperformed the US.
Emerging markets, Brazil in dollar terms, because the dollar was weak. In dollar terms, Brazil was up almost 50%. And in Asia, we had a similar situation. Some markets went up 40%. What makes this interview particularly striking is the broader historical perspective brought to the analysis. The 19th century United States, a period of explosive population growth, zero central bank interference, and near zero inflation, stands as a stark contrast to the interventionist financial architecture of today.
The concern is not just economic, but moral. A system that rewards asset holders while leaving the bottom 50% of Americans and the vast majority of the global population with virtually nothing is a system that has broken its own social contract. The warning on precious metals is equally nuanced. Gold is not described as cheap at current levels.
Oil, wheat, corn, and soybeans are relatively cheaper by comparison. But the core argument holds with global investors still allocating only 1 to 2% of their portfolios to precious metals and with ETF holdings remaining historically small despite recent price gains, the structural case for gold and silver as purchasing power preservers remains intact.
In a world where geopolitical aggression is rising, markets are going ballistic, and trusted institutions are losing credibility, diversification into real assets is not a luxury, it's a necessity. Share your thoughts about this interview in the comment section below. If you found this video helpful, please hit the like button, subscribe to the channel, and ring the bell icon. Thanks for watching.
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