저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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실버는 전문가 발언과 투기 수요로 과열됐고 현재 조정 국면이다. 자산 버블(주식·암호화폐·미술)이 존재하며 과열 자산은 상승보다 빠르게 하락할 수 있다. 금·은·백금 실물 보유는 장기 보호수단으로 유지. 미국의 부채·이자 부담이 빠르게 늘고 정부는 계속 돈을 찍을 수밖에 없어 유동성 긴축 시 주식 급락 위험이 있다. 과열된 AI·반도체·메가캡 주식의 대폭락을 예상.
다듬은 글
I think silver got overbought massively because some sort of advisers were claiming that silver will go to $10,000 and so forth. And then the speculators all went into silver and pushed the price up and so forth. We can see this in the commodities market. The small speculators are the record long position.
So there was excessive optimism. You understand, we are in a gigantic asset bubble. Everything has been grossly inflated. I look at the art prices recently. Art prices, the works that go to auction, they are sold for 200% more than the estimates were. Everything has gone ballistic. Marc , warns that markets are entering a dangerous phase in which the goal may no longer be to chase maximum gains, but to protect capital from maximum damage.
His view is simple. Years of money printing, speculation, and artificially inflated asset prices have created a gigantic bubble across stocks, crypto, art, real estate, and even parts of the commodity market. He believes silver became heavily overbought after extreme price expectations pulled speculators into the trade, especially small traders with record long positions.
That does not mean the long-term precious metals story is finished. In fact, he says investors with no gold should begin carefully accumulating gold, silver, and platinum, while understanding that corrections are normal after strong moves. The bigger prediction is that stock markets could fall meaningfully, especially overpriced AI, semiconductor, and mega-cap shares.
As liquidity tightens, inflated markets can decline much faster than they rose. so miss the next big update. I think that gold may go down further here, but I wouldn't short gold and silver. But if you have no gold, I would think that you should start to accumulate gold here and silver and platinum.
But my holdings of gold have been built over a long period of time, every month. And I feel comfortable because I don't see how the US could avoid not printing money. Because if they stop printing money, or even if the money supply grows slows down meaningfully, the stock market is going to tumble. I personally think we're in a correction period and that the stock market will go down meaningfully here because some stocks are incredibly overpriced.
People don't realize how incredibly overpriced and how the expectations are high about future profits. They think that the same I conduct the stocks will earn these earnings gains for the next 20 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have a preference for physical gold and silver and platinum because I own gold essentially or mining assets because I think that some disaster will strike the world.
But in a disaster situation, I think that owning paper is inferior to owning physical. The only danger I can see for physical ownership of gold, silver, platinum is expropriation by incompetent and vicious government. That is a risk, but you can avoid that risk to some extent by keeping your asset outside the banking system.
I think silver got overbought massively because some sort of advisers were claiming that silver will go to $10,000 and so forth. And then the speculators all went into silver and pushed the price up and so forth. We can see this in the commodities market. The small speculators are the record long position.
So there was excessive optimism. You understand? We are in a gigantic asset bubble. Everything has been grossly inflated. I look at the art prices recently. Art prices The works that go to auction, they are sold for 200% more than the estimates were. Everything has gone ballistic and I think we're approaching a time period during which we have to position ourselves how to lose the least money.
How to lose the least because we all going to lose money. But how do we lose the least? Because if everybody loses 80% and we're losing 20% then we're heroes. Then we became relatively rich relative to other people. Precious metals and depressed markets. Do you understand? The stock markets say globally, I don't know how many stocks there are.
100,000 or million or what not. Now this is in an inflationary environment in an asset bubble. Not every asset peaks out the same day. If I look at there is an index, the Value Line geometrical index that measures the performance of all stock. But it doesn't weight stocks the way the S&P weights stock by market capitalization.
That index is down and is lower than in 2021. That reflects in my view better the performance of individual shareholders because the individual shareholder that were 5 years ago in cannabis stocks. Then they were in the meme stocks, GameStop and AMC and so all the garbage that went down 98% after 2021.
And then they were in mining stocks and God knows what. But at the present time, they all concentrated in the Fang and Fang related stocks, the Magnificent Seven and AI related stocks, where there's massive supply coming on, but not in the marketplace, in market weight, because they base X what will float shares, but only floating shares 5% of market cap.
But the index funds will have to buy according to the whole value of the company, which is an illusion, because 95% of shares are not traded. So anyway, it's a long story, but the markets are sort of manipulated upward and there is a sort of a squeeze upward. And when the squeeze ends, the decline will be massive.
I repeat, a massive decline because stocks and any market tends to go down more rapidly than it went up. There is a time, even in money printing environment, when liquidity tighten. It's a complex matter and I don't want to go into here a lecture of economics of inflation. But even if you print money, the issue is in a asset bubble and in a money printing inflationary time, and if the rate doesn't accelerate, but slows down, liquidity tightens and markets tumble.
We had huge fluctuations in the Weimar Republic, but very few people made money, but some people made money because they got out at the right time and they switched into gold or they switched into foreign currencies and so forth. But in general, the Weimar hyperinflation was a disaster for ordinary people.
Disaster. But this is also now in the US. If you look at the wealth inequality, it's the highest it's ever been. The deeper message is that the world may be moving into asset price deflation while consumer prices keep rising. That means stocks, speculative assets, and overvalued sectors can fall. While food, living costs, tariffs, interest payments, and government debt continue pressuring ordinary people.
Faber believes governments, especially the US, will have no real choice but to keep printing money. If money printing slows, markets tumble. If it accelerates, inflation and inequality get worse. This creates a dangerous cycle where policy makers are trapped between protecting asset markets and destroying purchasing power.
That is why he continues to prefer physical gold, silver, platinum, and selected mining assets over paper promises. His warning is not just about making money, it is about losing less when the bubble finally breaks. Let's get back to the interview. I don't think I would call it a strange behavior. The metals were it exceptionally strong in 2025 and went up very strongly and there was quite a lot of speculation, especially in the mining sector.
And now we are in a correction phase. And I mentioned to you that several asset classes have begun to go down. And in general, I think we're in a period of asset price deflation and consumer price inflation. In other words, at that the phenomenon of inflation is that prices move up and down, but not regularly, not evenly.
Some prices move up first and then they go down and other prices come up and so forth. You look at say food price. Food prices expressed in gold are very inexpensive. But you look at say the S&P, the S&P even in gold is relatively expensive. So my view is that now we're in a correction phase. I have said and I have written that I had sold some mining stocks.
I took some profits, but I didn't sell my physical gold because I'm a believer in gold and I've been a believer in gold for the last 40 years. So I'm not going to change my mind now, especially not given the governments we have in the world. All of them will print money. There's no question about it.
Especially the present administration in the US is so bad economically terrible. They have no clue what is what what moves an economy and what should be done. They're interventionists without any clue. And this is very dangerous arrogance and interventions which are not sought out clearly. And this administration, I guarantee you, they will end up with an increase in debt that nobody can believe at the present time and interest payments that will keep on going up.
They've doubled over the last 5 years already. They'll double again next 5 years. The governments will be forced to print money just to pay the interest on its debt. Feel comfortable to own some gold. But my worry is of course that the governments will take it away from you one day. This is a very difficult relationship to understand how rising asset markets lead to inflation and to liquidity creation.
My view is that economists don't clearly understand that when asset markets go up, say, we didn't have cryptocurrencies 10 years ago. Now we have had cryptocurrencies that were worth more than $2 trillion. That, in my view, created liquidity. But now that the crypto markets came down, I mean, today that happened but forward came down, it reduced liquidity in the system.
And so, what you're saying, interest rates going up, yes, say my liquidity. Five years ago, in 2020, I hardly got any interest on my cash. I have business, I have an investment advisory business, and I have always a lot of cash, which I need to have as an investor. And on that cash, I I got zero interest to speak of.
But now, I get like four and a half. In some cases, I get cash flow of 7% because I have high dividend stock. And so, in my case, my liquidity has improved. You know that when I when I about when I speak badly about government, I'm not speaking badly because I'm angry at governments. The governments, with their printing of money, have enriched me.
But as an economist, their economic policies are a disaster, a disaster. It's like tariffs. What are tariffs good for? Nothing. What they do is increase the cost of living of poor people in America. The rich people don't feel tariffs. They don't care about tariffs. They make money out of tariffs. But the poor people, the 70% of households that live paycheck to paycheck, they are being hurt by tariffs.
That is the reality. But of course the media CNBC and Fox and all these characters, although these characters don't particularly like Mr. Trump, they will avoid telling the truth to the American public. That is for sure. I have very high opinion of Kevin Warsh as an economist. He understand economic well.
There's no question about well educated and he had good jobs and so forth. So he knows the cause and effects of inflation on ordinary people and on asset markets and and and. But he works for a boss that wants to print money and he's born he becomes Fed chairman under conditions that almost necessitate printing of money unless he would tolerate a steep market decline by tightening liquidity meaningfully meaningfully.
Yeah. To a Volcker like Volcker did in '79 when he increased the Fed fund rate at the time the discount rate by 250 basis points in one go. Marc Faber's outlook is not based on short-term excitement. It is built around a long cycle of debt, inflation, speculation, and government intervention. He says precious metals had a strong run, so corrections in gold, silver, and miners should not surprise anyone.
But he also makes clear that he has not changed his long-term belief in gold after decades of ownership. His biggest concern is that the next phase may punish investors who are concentrated in overvalued paper assets. If everyone loses 80% and someone loses only 20%, that person becomes relatively stronger.
This is why physical metals, cash flow, foreign currencies, and assets outside the banking system become important in his framework. The prediction is clear, debt will rise, interest costs may double again over the next 5 years, governments will print more money, and markets could face a massive decline once the liquidity squeeze ends.
In that environment, gold and silver remain a form of protection, not speculation. .
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