저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 마크 페이버는 수익 극대화보다 폭락 시 손실을 최소화하는 자산 보존에 초점을 두며, 금을 핵심 보유 자산으로 유지하고 플래티넘 비중을 늘리는 중이라고 말한다. 자산 보존 철학: 돈을 버는 것보다 다음 대폭락 때 잃는 돈을 최소화하는 방법을 고민해야 한다고 강조한다. 자산배분은 주식·채권·귀금속·부동산 분산을 오랫동안 주장해 왔다. 금: 지폐 구매력 하락에 대비한 안정 통화로 본다. 금이 많이 올라 비중이 커졌지만 매도하지 않고 있으며, 금 주식으로 바꿀 용기는 없다고 한다. 장기적으로 세계 전쟁이나 임대 규제 같은 사회적 리스크가 있을 수 있어 금이 부를 지킨다고 본다. 과거 1999~2000년에는 다우 대비 금이 저렴했지만 지금은 그만큼 싸다고 보지 않는다. 다만 금을 사지 않은 사람은 후회할 수도 있다는 지인들의 시각을 전하며, 본인은 소량 추가 매수를 계속한다고 말한다. 플래티넘: 최근 노출을 늘렸으며, 금보다 변동성이 클 수 있다고 인정하면서도 가치를 높게 본다. 비트코인·암호화폐: 자신은 또 다른 형태의 종이돈으로 보며 선호하지 않는다. 다만 다른 사람들이 더 잘 알 수 있다고 덧붙인다. 젊은 세대는 비트코인을 택할 것이라고 언급한다. 리스크: 향후 10년 내 세계대전이나 정책 충격 가능성을 언급하며, 금융위기·정책 실수·인플레이션·지정학 갈등 어느 쪽이든 실물자산이 구매력을 지킨다고 본다. 아시아 부상: 중국과 인도는 과거 대비 크게 성장했으며 세계 제조·원자재 소비에서 비중이 커졌다. 서구 주도 금융 체계의 가정을 재검토해야 한다고 본다. 유럽: 산업 이탈과 과도한 규제로 경제 전망이 어둡다고 평가하지만, 돈을 충분히 찍으면 주식은 하락하지 않을 수 있다고 말한다. 외환보유: 러시아 자산 동결 이후 중국·러시아·브라질 등은 미국 자산 집중을 피하고 금을 쌓는 추세라고 본다. 분산투자를 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 금은 최고 수익률 자산이라기보다 다른 자산이 부진할 때 안정을 줄 수 있다는 보수적 관점이다. 세계적 긴장과 정부 부채 확대 속에서 금·은·플래티넘 같은 실물자산이 중요해질 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
Gold has gone up so much. The worst the asset allocation has changed and I'm not selling gold. I sometimes think maybe I should sell gold and buy gold shares or stocks, but I don't have the courage. I for me, people think always about making money. I think how is how to invest to lose the least money when the crash comes.
You go to jail for 10 years as you deserve. You didn't even choose Bitcoins or gold. I will choose gold. Now you and the generation Z, the young people, they will all choose Bitcoins. You understand? It's a different world. I choose gold. In the next 10 years, it's not unlikely that we have another world war.
The global financial system is facing growing uncertainty as debt levels rise, currencies lose purchasing power, and investors search for assets that can preserve wealth during economic turbulence. While markets continue to reach new highs, concerns about inflation, geopolitical instability, and long-term financial risks remain firmly in focus.
Mark Faber, a veteran investor and global market commentator known for his contrarian views on economics and asset allocation, explains why preserving wealth may become more important than chasing maximum returns. Rather than focusing solely on making money, he believes investors should think about how to lose the least amount of money when the next major downturn arrives.
In his view, gold remains one of the strongest forms of financial protection because it has historically maintained its purchasing power while paper currencies steadily depreciate. He argues that the world is entering a period of significant change with economic power shifting toward Asia and uncertainty rising across Western economies.
While many investors are attracted to technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and speculative assets, he continues to favor hard assets. He also suggests that the coming decade could bring major geopolitical disruptions, making wealth preservation strategies more important than ever. ; Got into this commodity business and the gold business and I found a large client in Indonesia who traded, you know what I mean, millions per day, which in 1978 was a lot of money.
He traded, you know, sometimes 50,000 contracts as an individual. That was a huge amount and I realized there was a bubble in commodities, so I didn't touch them. After there was the deflationary period 1980-81 to 85, that was essentially the low for commodities, but then they traded sideways until 99.
In 99, the price of gold was still below $255, but at the time I decided, you know, when gold traded below 300 to accumulate gold and sit on gold. And if you ask me for what is gold for you, actually I don't value my gold, you know. For me, gold is a stable currency and everything around that that is paper money depreciates in value and in its purchasing power.
I mean, you say, "Okay, when I'm born a croissant or this cost, say, 20 cents and now it's $2 or so, and this is inflation." I could argue it's a depreciation of the purchasing power of money. Gold has done relatively well in its purchasing power, maybe too well, who knows. But, uh, if you said Mark, because of your usual bad behavior, I was wondering where you kept a bottle of whiskey for me, but, uh, there's only water and coffee.
But, I you have to go to jail for 10 years, and here is a million dollars or 10 million, and you have the choice to put it in anything, in real estate, in, uh, stamps, in wines, in whatever, stocks, bonds, and so forth. I would have to say that if, uh, preservation of purchasing power was the objective, I think I would probably buy put it all in gold or silver or platinum.
My favorite right now is platinum, but, uh, it's going to platinum is probably going to be more volatile. Mhm. But, you understand? In the next 10 years, it's not unlikely that we have another world war. So, a property, or it's not unlikely that we have the socialist take over a city, and they go along and say to the rich people, you can't increase the rent of your tenants, or you have to do this, or you have to do that, to make it not profitable for you to own a property, you understand?
I think that gold would fulfill the the function of preserving your some of most of your wealth. And gold, in, uh, '99, 2000, were cheap was cheap compared to the Dow Jones. I never sell my gold, and I like gold, and so forth, but I don't think that it's that cheap. Gold? Yes, but I have friends, they still maintain that gold, that people who don't buy gold today, they will regret it, maybe.
I still buy gold, but not in a huge quantity. I increased my exposure to platinum. Throughout my investment life, over the last 20 years or so, I have advocated diversification. Stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate. And bonds include cash. And now? Well, because because gold has gone up so much, the worst asset allocation has changed.
And I'm not selling gold. I sometimes think maybe I should sell gold and buy gold shares or stocks, but I don't have the courage. And for me, people think always about making money. I think how is how do invest to lose the least money when the crash comes. And the last two years I wake up and so forth.
And I feel in a good mood because my Asian stocks went up, my stock portfolios went up, and my gold holdings went up and so forth. And I always think, "What will my mood be if every day I wake up with less You know. And I may think, "Okay, I have less money, but my neighbor has even less money." Say, I I drop by 20% and he drops by 50%.
So, relatively speaking, I become richer. You know, there's lots of things that are happening with cryptos and stable coins and so forth and so on. In my view, it's another form of paper money. But this is my view. Other people who are maybe more knowledgeable have a different view. But if you give me the option, Mark, "Here is a million dollars.
You go to jail for 10 years as you deserve. You can either choose Bitcoins or gold. I will choose gold. Now you and the Generation Z, the young people, they will all choose Bitcoin. You understand? It's a different world. I choose gold. A key theme is diversification, but with a growing emphasis on real assets.
While gold remains a core holding, he notes that its strong performance has increased its share within many portfolios. Even so, he is reluctant to reduce his exposure because he believes the long-term risks facing the global economy have not disappeared. One of the more notable observations is his increasing interest in platinum.
While acknowledging that platinum may be more volatile than gold, he sees value in the metal and has gradually increased his exposure to it. At the same time, he remains skeptical of digital currencies as a long-term store of wealth, viewing them as another form of paper-based financial asset. His broader concern is that investors may be underestimating future economic shocks.
Whether those risks arise from financial crises, policy mistakes, inflation, or geopolitical conflict, he believes owning tangible assets can help protect purchasing power when traditional investments come under pressure. Let's get back to the interview. If you went to India, the first time I went to India was 73.
It was an incredibly poor country with a few wealthy families, but I mean, there was hardly any economic development compared to say the Western world. Now you go to India, there are many cities that are, you know, equal to European cities or in from an infrastructure better conditions, and the same certainly is true
[cough and clears throat] of China. I mean, the first time I went to China was 78. That was nothing. And the first time I went to China was to Shenzhen. It was a to cross the border from Hong Kong. Now Shenzhen is larger than Hong Kong. It was just paddy fields, rice fields, nothing. And my Taiwanese friends, they're mostly Shanghainese and Fujianese.
And they said, "Oh, the communists are so lazy. They will never do anything." But once they moved into the market economy in '78 and Deng Xiaoping is Mao had died in '76 and Deng Xiaoping pursued this open-door policy from '78 onwards, the country exploded. I mean, it's amazing when you see a city like Shanghai where when I first went, that was also in the early '80s, you had to book you had to go to a window at the station and someone had to write a piece of paper for you to get a taxi.
And of course, nowadays is very different and the city is very modern. It's huge. So, the world has changed a lot and these countries, I think Miss Truss, who was the prime minister of Britain for a brief period of time, she was the foreign minister for a while of England. And she went to India and she lectured the Indians about, you know, democracy.
Now here you have a a country who last year became larger than the United Kingdom economically. They're now the fifth largest country in the world, economically speaking. And they have 1.3 billion people and England has one problem after the other. But the British have the good sense to go and teach the Indians what to do.
And this is the worst kind of a diplomatic condition you can imagine because in India, if someone is hated, they're the British because the British were the colonialists and they hate them because they kind of formed a union with the maharajahs and oppressed the population. So, it's not a very good say condition to have a diplomat from Britain come and tell the Indians what to do nowadays.
Just same like the Chinese. You notice a country that nowadays in terms of industrial production, say you take steel, you take cement, they produce [clears throat] as much cement as the rest of the world combined and they are a huge industrial power and then some idiot like Macron from France comes and tells the Chinese what to do.
As a Chinese leader responsible for 1.3 billion people, you just have to laugh at such a clown like Macron and the the German whatever their names are. She was the foreign minister Baerbock. They haven't realized the world has changed. You know, we we have now the western world our population in Europe is going down anyway.
That's has happened everywhere. Yeah, also in China it's going down. But in Europe we have many cities that are sort of disappearing because the industries are walking away. Why? Because the politicians in Europe they do not pursue free markets and the capitalistic system, but they go back to idealistic ideas or thoughts and they intervene into the free market left, right and center and these are not politicians that were businessmen or hard-working people, workers.
These are academics. They went to universities to study politics, how to be a good politician. They never worked a day in their lives, but they tell everybody what to do. So, I'm very bearish about Europe economically speaking, but it doesn't mean that stocks go down. You just have to print enough money.
And now we have the situation where the world has changed as I described where countries that were economically insignificant. In year 1970, China consumed 2% of all industrial commodities in the world. Now, it's around 50%. Some less, but some more. And with India for sure is more than 50%. So, anyway, we have this shift in the balance of economic power.
And then, these countries had lived under what I call neo-colonialism. This is post-colonialism, post-Second World War. The Western countries gave them independence. Yes, but still controls them economically. [clears throat] Say, the French were very good at that in West Africa, but the British also to some extent.
Anyway, now this is changing. The countries have developed economically so successfully under capitalism they don't want to accept this patronizing kind of economic system. And before, most of them held their foreign exchange reserves in dollars and or in assets that they had in the United States. But now, recent events, you know, in Afghanistan and especially in Russia where the US and Europe froze the assets of Russians.
I mean, if you are a Chinese or a Russian or a Brazilian or whoever you are in the world, you'd be mad to keep your assets all in the US. Equally, you would be mad to keep your assets all in the US. And I always tell the Western people in the US, you feel secure, but one day the situation may be different.
You know, so my view is diversification. And this is the view of these countries like China and India. They think, "Why should we keep our assets, our surpluses all in the US? We accumulate gold." The outlook presented is centered on preservation rather than speculation. The expectation is not necessarily that gold will deliver the highest returns among all assets, but that it may provide stability during periods when other investments struggle.
That distinction becomes increasingly important as governments continue to expand debt, deficits remain elevated, and confidence in fiat currencies faces ongoing challenges. Another major trend highlighted is the rise of Asia. Countries such as China and India have transformed dramatically over recent decades, becoming powerful economic forces with growing influence on global trade, manufacturing, and investment flows.
As economic power continues to shift eastward, investors may need to rethink assumptions that were built around a Western-dominated financial system. One prediction discussed is that the next decade could be marked by greater geopolitical tension and even the possibility of large-scale conflicts. In such an environment, hard assets like gold, silver, and platinum may play a critical role in protecting wealth.
The message is clear, focus on resilience, maintain diversification, and prioritize assets that can withstand economic uncertainty. .
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