저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
페이버는 금을 단기 매매가 아닌 가치저장 수단으로 보유하며 종이화폐·정부채에 대한 신뢰를 낮게 본다. 1981년 이후 금리 하락 사이클은 2020년 저점(10년물 0.57%)에서 끝났고, 적자와 인플레로 장기 금리 상승 사이클이 진행 중이라고 본다. 미국 경제는 공식 수치보다 약하며, 자산가격 고점 신호(주식 신고가 종목 감소, 상업용 부동산·사모신용 위축)가 유동성을 조일 수 있다고 경고한다. 단기적으로는 경기 둔화 시 채권 반등 가능성을 열어두고, 테슬라·엔비디아 숏이 채권 숏보다 나을 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
On gold, I do not hold gold because I think that it will go up or anything. I hold gold because when I look around, I don't see any store of value. I mean, do you think a store of value is government bonds? I hold gold as a store of value and as a store of value, I would never sell it. Are we talking about the trade to make I may buy gold in the morning and sell it it in evening.
I don't do that because I'm not interested. I have enough money to live a comfortable, say, normal life. But, I'm interested to hold gold as a store of value because I don't think that paper money is are stores of values when I look at the intellectual capacities of central bankers. The global economy is entering a period where traditional safety assumptions are being questioned.
Rising deficits, weakening purchasing power, unstable asset prices, and long-term cycles are all beginning to reshape the investment landscape. The key concern is not simply whether markets move higher or lower in the short-term, but whether paper assets can preserve value in a system built on constant monetary expansion.
Mark Faber, a veteran investor and market historian known for his long-term macro views, explains that gold should not be seen only as a trade. In his view, gold is held because paper currencies and government bonds no longer offer reliable protection against central bank money creation. He argues that the US economy is weaker than official numbers suggest while consumers are already under pressure from higher living costs, credit card debt, and reduced purchasing power.
He also warns that asset prices may be forming a major top with falling real estate, weak private credit, and pressure on speculative investors tightening liquidity. His outlook suggests that gold may fluctuate, but its role as a store of value becomes more important as confidence in paper money declin; Well, as I pointed out, bonds and interest rates move in long-term cycles along the cycle of inflation, which is occasionally called the long-term Kondratieff.
And these are waves, upward waves and downward waves. And during the upward wave, interest rates go up, such as we had between the end of the Second World War and 1981. We reached a peak in interest rates in '81, and after '81 and in the monetary interventions by Paul Volcker, inflation was abating, and we had a period of disinflation, partly because of the opening of China, by the way.
And this declining interest rates cycle was a secular decline in interest rates that lasted from 1981 to between May and August 2020. And then interest rates bottomed out on the 10-year at 0.57%, and since then, I agree with you, we are in an up cycle for interest rates, and the longer the American politicians don't care about the deficit, especially not Mr.
Trump, that deficit will go up, and the interest payments on the debt will go up, and it will force more money printing. Okay. And it will lead to more inflation and to higher interest rates. And the longer these politicians stay in power, uh we'll get, say, 200% interest rates. But in the meantime, we are in a cycle where, in my view, the economy in the US is much weaker than uh the government publishes.
And as you know, 70% of Americans, they live like paycheck to to paycheck. Of course. And uh when uh when the cost of living will go up, their affordability, their their purchasing power will be killed. And I can see it nowadays, I think the economy is very weak. And in my view, I'm not saying because the cost of living would justify uh higher interest rates.
But the economic reality would justify lower rates. I And I believe that the bond market is going to be the least bad. For now. On gold, I do not hold gold because I think that it will go up or anything. I hold gold because when I look around, I don't see any store of value. I mean Do you think a store of value is government bonds?
But it may be good to be short bonds, but it may be better to short Tesla or Nvidia. Right. Right. these these two, Tesla and Nvidia, a year ago, were the most popular stocks among individuals in Wall Street surveys. And what have they done? Nothing. Right. Nothing. I hold gold as a store of value and as a store of value I would never sell it.
Are we talking about the trade I may buy gold in the morning and sell it in evening. I don't do that because I'm not interested. I have enough money to live a comfortable say normal life. But I'm interested to hold gold as a store of value because I don't think that paper money are stores of values.
When I look at the intellectual capacities of central bankers, I want to remind every investor. The best investment in life is to work and to have discipline because most people are lack discipline and I'm not a genius and I know many rich people. I mean ultra wealthy people. What sets them apart is that they have discipline and work ethics and curiosity that they keep on learning.
They don't stop learning. They keep on reading and studying. I studied at universities. I never went to university. I finished up with a PhD but I knew nothing. But later on during the course of my life I started to work on Wall Street in 1970. I read a lot and by giving a speeches and also writing the newsletter it forced me to actually do things.
I the whole day. I sometimes also tempted to drink the whole day but I can't do it. So I have to do it now instead of close to 12:00 at night so I can go out and play pool. I like to play snooker. The deeper issue is interest rates. Faber believes the long decline in rates that began after 1981 ended around 2020 when the 10-year Treasury yield reached historic lows.
Since then, he sees a new long-term upcycle in interest rates driven by deficits, inflation, and political unwillingness to control government spending. He suggests that the 10-year yield should already be closer to 6% or 7% based on underlying inflation, even though parts of the economy are too weak to handle higher borrowing costs.
That creates a difficult environment where rates may rise over the long run, but bonds can still rally temporarily if the economy weakens sharply. His warning is clear, everything may become difficult, but some assets will be less bad than others. Gold remains his preferred store of value, while bonds may offer tactical protection during economic weakness.
Let's get back to the interview. The thing is my view is starting the end of 2024. Actually, it began already in 2021 when the meme stocks peaked out and the crazy stuff peaked out because if you look at the market and you look at the new high list, the maximum number of stocks that reached 12 months highs was in 2021-2022.
Then 23, we went down, and then 24-25, we had a recovery. But I'm believer that we are in a major tr- top for asset prices and that liquidity will tighten because unlike other people who believe that the tightening only happens central banks. I believe that when asset prices go down, the asset prices prices that go down tighten liquidity.
Of course it I mean, you get Of course it does. You get the commercial property prices down in some cases in the US by 70%. I can tell you it tightened the liquidity of some property developers. And then you get the private credit contraction. And declining in asset prices, it tightens the purses of individual investors.
And so forth and so on. And then the generation Z, the geniuses, huh? The generation Z, who were all in Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies, but they came in late, they are suffering now. I can see it with my own eyes because I go to bars where all these people converge. And they're no longer there. This is the issue that I'm deliberating the most with.
What is the impact of declining asset prices on the economy? Because when asset prices go up, it's logical someone has a house, it goes up by $100,000 in value, then he goes and borrows some additional money against it, and he uses that money to buy a Mercedes. Uh more so in the stock market, if someone makes a profit, he goes and spends it on some girlfriends or at Epstein and company, yeah, what not.
You understand. So, but once the profits are gone, the economy will suffer very badly, in my opinion, much more than the economists on Wall Street say. And you will never find an economist on Wall Street that strongly criticize the money printing by the Federal Reserve. Because Wall Street lives from rising asset prices.
Economically, interest rates should be higher. In other words, say in my view, given the underlying inflation rate, the interest rate on the 10 year should be around 6%, 7% on the 10 years note. But uh we have this environment also in Europe where interest rates are very low relative to the cost of living increases.
But uh I think for some sectors of the economy, even the current interest rates at 10 years, at say about 4%, is relatively high for some sectors of the economy. And for ordinary people, you referred to the consumer credit, the the credit card debt. I mean, their interest rates are not high. They're like 10% The point is, I am thinking that everything will be bad, but some things will be less bad than others.
So, I think that gold may go down, but I'm holding gold because I think it's better than to hold cash with banks and so forth. But I also hold bonds, and I want to explain to you why I'm holding bonds. First of all, if you look at portfolio allocation, the bond allocation at the present time by individuals is at an all-time low, essentially, or close to an all-time low.
They have much more in stocks. I believe that what Greenspan once said, that the US government will always pay the interest, is true. The question is, what is the value at which they pay the interest? I mean, how much How much is the purchasing power of money? But the problem nowadays is that all currencies, all paper currencies, are bad because they're all manipulated by central bankers, and they hold together, and talk together, and act together to print money.
So, all currencies are eventually becoming worthless. But the US dollar, at least, has relatively high interest rates compared to the others. I want to add something to your bond position. First of all, I I'm very interested in interest rates and in history and so forth. And as you know, interest rates move in long-term cycles, and these cycles uh last 40 to 60 years, or sometimes longer, and sometimes shorter.
But basically, uh the last up cycle in interest rates began at the end of the Second World War, and then we went to a peak on the 10-years Treasury note on in September, September 21, 1981, and the peak was 15.84%. And since then, we've been in a downtrend in interest rates, in a secular downtrend from 1981 to 2020 between May and August 2020 when the 10 years note yielded 0.57% and since then I agree with you we are in a long-term uptrend for interest rates that will lead probably to interest rates above 20% maybe 50% that would not surprise me.
The longer Mr. Trump stays in power the more likely it is that interest rates will be 200% per annum. That is that is clear to me but if you look at the 70s the movement of interest rates was highly volatile and I was at the time working on Wall Street and there were big moves in bond prices up and down because in short-term rates also moved up and down a lot and we had a major recession 73-74.
But what I want to say is we could have a rally in bonds because the economy and you to some extent confirm this with the credit card debt in my opinion the economy is much weaker than what Wall Street assumes because Wall Street wants to paint a nice picture. This outlook is not based on short-term market excitement.
It is based on long cycles, monetary discipline, and the consequences of excessive debt. Faber's message is that investors should not trust paper currencies blindly because all major currencies are being managed by central banks that continue to expand money supply whenever pressure rises. His predictions are especially important because they combine two forces, a weaker economy and a rising long-term interest rate cycle.
That means markets may face both liquidity pressure and inflation pressure at the same time. Stocks, commercial property, private credit, and speculative assets could all suffer if asset prices fall and confidence begins to break. Gold may still correct along the way, but he views it as superior to holding cash in a system where purchasing power continues to erode.
For investors, the lesson is discipline, patience, and protection rather than speculation. ocking tangible assets.
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