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[ Friday to you I love when it's Friday I'm sure you guys do too let us get right into it so I wanted to talk about Bitcoin and are these Bitcoin long shares there's something dangerous for Bitcoin you may or may not have heard about the Bitcoin longs being at an all-time high at least as it relates to the BitFenix Long's on Bitcoin that you see here this obviously doesn't take into account bit mechs bit mechs isn't really that transparent about their information the way BitFenix is but BitFenix is a good source a good data point to go off of historically so we'll look at that and then I'll take a look at bitcoins technical analysis in general and then I'll go over a couple of stocks that have netted us big wins the last two months particularly have been insane in the stock market giving us crypto light gains we'll go over that later in the video but let me get started talking about Bitcoin so looking at Bitcoin on the daily chart this isn't really anything new or sorry this is the weekly chart this isn't really anything new I've talked about this ad nauseam but Bitcoin is clearly forming this descending channel on the weekly here that you see here this it while the asset is in this channel is bearish because the price is going down the expected breakout from this most of the time is a bullish breakout so that is what we are expecting eventually or what you should expect eventually on Bitcoin the answer the question rather is how far can it dip before it breaks out and if you look at the bottom obviously this the one of the characteristics of a descending Channel is that it keeps making lower lows so currently the support is at around 6300 and the longer this channel continues the lower that support level is so looking at Bitcoin on the on the weekly you'll see that we're forming this golden cross here between the 50 and the hundred I don't know how easy it is to see on my chart but the 50s Orange and the hundred is yellow and you see them converging here so that for the long term is definitely a good sign I've talked about this before as well the fact that Bitcoin has already retested the 200 weekly EMA just as it did back here in 2015 and after it does this and it falls below the the 21 weekly EMA which is this white line and retest the 200 ma then we usually see a bull run obviously bitcoin is still a young asset but in its short history and its last nine years or so we usually see the start of a gradual bull rally at that point so all things considered it looks like Bitcoin on at least on the weekly is is bullish but that is you know a long term err could be a very long term timeframe and you look here the vfi is finally curling upwards again this right here is the volume flow indicator which is a volume based indicator used to try to project momentum or you know the way that they the the stock or the coin is is flowing from a volume perspective whether more whether the volume is largely positive or negative right so anyway that is Bitcoin on the weekly if we look at the daily you'll see that I overlaid bitcoins Long's here if you if you look at at the indicators here this BTC USD Long's and you'll notice that the lungs are at an all-time high at least for as far back is we have chart data right you see here this blue line this is Long's at an all-time high so what does Bitcoin do when you know when Long's get this high well we can take a look at what it's done historically this could sometimes be a deceptive indicator and I'll tell you why right now but here is we'll just put set this range for the the Bitcoin Long's here but if you take a look at this you'll see here that when Bitcoin Long's are at a high it generally coincides with a price crash and Bitcoin now there is a bit of a chicken or the egg problem here so don't think that correlation means causation don't confuse correlation and causation meaning that just because Bitcoin lungs are at a high when bitcoins price has crashed that the lungs themselves caused the crash however and a big however sometimes the lungs do cause the crash right so if you take a look here like back in March 2018 or I shouldn't say cause but they they are definitely a catalyst in the crash you'll see that the lungs came before the price crash but sometimes the lungs increase because the market has decided that that is a market bottom right so the long start increasing after the price has reached a bottom or what is perceived by the market as a bottom just like it did here in December 2018 and in early 2019 when Bitcoin was trading in the low 3,000 the long started to climb and they started to climb because folks were perceiving this as a market bottom the market was ready to accept through its own price discovery that this was the bottom right so that's why long started increase increasing so it's not like the price crash because long started increasing its long started increasing when the price crashed because traders wanted to take advantage of a rally since they perceived this to be the bottom so don't go thinking that just because Long's are at an all-time high the price will crash it definitely could add to the crash so with that said what is my opinion here well Bitcoin is definitely not in the low three thousands we're trading in the seventy two hundred seventy three hundred range currently right now this right here is a bearish pennant right because the difference between a pennant in a symmetrical triangle is a pennant comes from a an identifiable trend so in this case you have a downtrend and then the pennant versus a symmetrical triangle which is formed without a pole now in this case Long's are at an all-time high for some reason this long activity does look weird to me but let's just put that aside for now I do think that if Bitcoin does fall below 7k hit that 7k range or fall below that we'll start to see these Long's gobbled up and you'll see what's called a long squeeze and yes just as we do have short squeezes right when when shorts are disproportionately high and the price starts going up you'll see those shorts start to get liquidated pushing forcing the price even more upwards in a snowball like fashion that can also happen when it comes to lungs lungs are disproportionately high if the price starts tanking and we hit 7k either long sellers well or sorry long buyers we'll start to close out their positions manually or if they used a ridiculously high leverage factor their lungs will be liquidated for them by the exchange so we think that we are in that range because in this case like I said before a lot of times you'll see you know the number of long start to climb because we are at a perceived bottom however here we've been trading range bound for quite some time right we've traded within this range since really the beginning of October there was that little blip when we went up to almost 10,000 however for the most part we've been trading in the sideways range and certainly for the better part of you know the month we've been trading in the sideways range so there hasn't really been any reason for these Long's to go up it's it's not like them the market is perceiving this as a market bottom not not based on the sentiment that I'm getting right so there is a high chance that we will see a long squeeze to some degree or another it doesn't mean that the price is gonna crash to 5k you know a long squeeze could be very just in the same way that sometimes you'll see the effects of a short squeeze you know that those effects could last a really short time where you know the price in a short squeeze could jump up $500 within a few minutes and then all the shorts get liquidated and you never really see the long-term effects or see any long-term effects of the short squeeze same thing as the the long squeeze right you could see the price dip to 6800 6700 before those long start getting closed out and then the price tries to normalize and find support at that range so don't get me wrong I'm not saying that we'll see you know a crash all the way down to 5,000 certainly could happen the market does what it wants and you have to adjust accordingly however I do feel like we could be in the midst of at least on the cusp of a potential long squeeze that could take us down to 6,800 6700 at which point along Bitcoin with with some leverage obviously I do buy Bitcoin on the major dips on the spot market but in terms of trading with leverage I do like to only trade at identifiable support and resistance levels where you're shorting at resistor at clear resistance levels and longing at clear support levels and you do that multiple times and you can net yourself a pretty healthy profit again sign up to the trade alerts if you want access to that link is in the description where I do send out crypto and stock trade alerts and we also hold regular voice chats where we discuss trade strategies portfolio management what coins I'm holding what stocks I'm holding etc etc link is in the description very beneficial service sign up if you want access to that a couple of swing trades that were successful for us this week some really easy money really on xtz which has tezo's up almost 14% and I send these out on the discord as you see here and E and G BTC this one was pretty easy - almost 15% both of these within a day actually I'm not really into time prediction so I'll never say that you're gonna make a certain amount by a certain day however when the setup is optimal then you just have to trust the setup and you know set your stop limit and hold the position until that set up either plays out or a change in market conditions forces you to reconsider but I'll never say oh yeah you're gonna make a certain amount of money by a certain date or you know this trade will pan out in a day or in a few hours anybody that tells you that doesn't know what they're doing let us get right into the market so looking at markets they started off really you know really strongly today on hopes that the China trade deal has has been agreed upon or at least is on the cusp of being agreed upon but you do see the markets relatively unchanged although the Nasdaq is up a quarter of a percent SP in the Dow relatively unchanged however we did have some pretty big wins so far in the market in last two months but buying TD Ameritrade on the dip it is now up 56% since we bought it our entire portfolio is up almost 40% in the last two months which is just astronomical and even more for those that engage in options and take the options trade alerts options are a different beast so obviously you should know what you're doing before committing any money into options but anyway I digress so TD Ameritrade up almost 56% JP Morgan is another another one that's been killing it for us lately JP Morgan is up I believe 19% over the last two months or so since we bought the dip here after retraced to the 100ma let me just check on that real quick if I look at these stocks you'll see JP Morgan yep so it's up almost 19% since buying the dip here at the hundred M a hundred moving average here's the stock that I'm currently eyeing I'll give you a freebie for those of you that aren't in the group Home Depot currently retrace to the 200 moving average this is a level that it's bounced off of a couple of times going back almost a year you'll see that it has dipped again currently finding support at a 200 moving average almost over sold on the RSI MACD crossover about to happen the vfi looks like the crossover is about to happen and this is a pretty healthy dividend paying stock the dividends actually dollar 36 per share obviously you can trade this using options as well you don't have to buy the stocks on the on the spot market but with options there like I said before it is a little more risky it's a more involved game because you do have expiration dates volatility etc other things to consider however I'm eyeing Home Depot like a hawk here as it fell to the 200 ma these are the types of alerts that you'll get in the in the trading group anyway that is it for today's video leave a comment if you have a comment question agreement disagreement hit that thumbs up if you got anything out of this video if you're not subscribed to the channel I don't know what the hell you're doing go ahead hit that subscribe button
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