저자: TheTravelingTrader · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로 비트코인은 약세로 보며 6,400~6,800달러 구간 분할 매수를 고려하나, 7,000달러 하회 시 중기 리스크가 커진다는 입장. 비트코인: 하락 채널 내에 있고 RSI·VFI·MACD가 약세를 가리키며 50일선이 200일선을 하향 돌파(데드크로스). 과거 2018년 11월 하락 사례를 언급하며 3,200달러까지 열어두되 직접 예측은 아니라고 함. 숏 포지션이 낮아 숏스퀴즈 가능성도 작다고 봄. 비트코인 매수 구간: 7,400~8,400달러(발언 중 6,400~6,800 구간 언급 포함해 해석 주의)에서 평균단가 낮추기 방식 매수 전략 제시. 장기적으로 매수가 차이는 큰 의미 없다는 견해. 체인링크(LINK): 최근 강한 상승, 3달러 이상 유지. 지지선 유지 시 0.618 피보나치인 3.4달러 부근까지 추가 상승 기대. 시스코(CSCO): 실적 부진과 IT 지출 전망 악화로 8% 급락. 2000년 고점 이후 선형 상승이 아니며 지지선이 약해 추가 하락 가능성을 봄. 40~42달러 구간에서 재매수 고려, 지금은 서두르지 않음. 월마트(WMT): 실적 호조(매출 3.2% 증가, 이커머스 41% 성장)를 근거로 장기 가치주로 평가, 현재 지지선에서 장기 매수 적합 판단. 엔비디아(NVDA): 장기 상승 삼각형을 돌파, 1.27 피보나치 확장 저항에서 횡보 중. 실적은 긍정적으로 평가, 내일쯤 돌파 후 1.618 피보나치인 약 200달러 부근 목표 관찰. 디즈니: 이전부터 매집 중이며 104.7달러 부근 보유 의사. 내년 180~200달러 목표 제시, 디즈니플러스 1일 1,000만 이상 가입 언급. WWE: 4월 이후 약 50% 하락, RSI 과매도로 저가 진입 기회로 봄. 리스크: 전체 시장 급락 시 보유 전략 재검토 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
[ Thursday to you so today obviously I'm gonna do the typical thing go over the cryptocurrency market as well as some of the traditional market updates we'll be taking a look at cisco stock at walmart at nvidia stocks and discuss some of our plays in the crypto and traditional markets some of our strategies and plays and trade signals so let's get right into it looking at the cryptocurrency market cap hovering around two hundred and thirty eight and a half bill no new volume injection here we are seeing a little bit of action on some of the alt neo is up almost fifteen percent in the last week same thing for chain-link v chained up almost thirty percent in the last week so there's been some movement even though the overall crypto market cap hasn't really budged we are seeing some movement here so let us talk about bitcoin real quick and see what is the prognosis in the short term so looking at bitcoin we are still in this descending channel for me all all indications point to bullish or sorry bearish short-term action and the reason i say that is a number of factors i mean it's it's pretty clear to me that in the short term bitcoin is bearish so we have the obviously the descending channel now the breakout from the descending channel is usually a positive one however within the channel itself it's descending so that means the price is going down we have the the declining RSI the VF i which is a cumulative measure of volume to some degree it tries to measure whether the volume the inflows and whether the flow of volume is negative or positive right and in this case we're below zero once again and you see here what happened the last time we were below zero back in November 2018 this is when we tanked from 6500 to about 3200 I'm not saying we're going to 3200 I'm just pointing out that the VF I is negative once again the El MACD is also crossed over in the bearish direction right a couple of other things we have the death cross between the 50 and the 200 as you see here and we are now entering into the support range at least the interim support range for the latter half of 2019 now this rectangle here is where I'm planning on buying back or accumulating Bitcoin right so this is between the its it's not really a that wide of a range but it may seem why to sum is between seventy four hundred and eighty four hundred if you've been around trading long enough you know that catching a falling knife is an exercise in futility that's something that you're going to lose that more times than not and you know if you're especially if you're buying for the long term you know the difference between buying it seventy two hundred or seventy four hundred or you know between eight thousand and eighty four hundred in the long term that is really a moot point and what you should do is look to average out your buy-in to get the best buy in right I did a video a long time ago that even if you bought at the high at 20,000 and you dollar cost average up until the current price point your entry would be very close to what the current price is and that's considering you buying at twenty thousand so anyway I digress so that is the the short-term prognosis as I see it for for Bitcoin another thing that I'm looking at is shorts right so if you look at BTC USD shorts the reason that we look at this is because you're trying to develop a oh this looks really messy let me see if I can clean this up a bit and change the color on this but essentially what you're looking at is market sentiment right so if I turn this to white and I remove the oh actually the 21 EMA is not on there okay so here this white line here this is BTC USD shorts and the reason that I'm pulling this up for market sentiment reasons obviously and also because when shorts are high right when shorts are rising then there is a good chance of a short squeeze effect so even if you are bearish in the short term if shorts are high like like we see here that is when you know any sort of momentous positive price action can snowball into a rally right and that's when you start to see shorts decline is when those shorts start to get gobbled up because of the short squeeze effect but when shorts are low you don't really have that that short squeeze effect as they are now right so shorts are almost at the low that we saw back in in July so we don't even have the prospect of a potential short squeeze which is why I tend to look at shorts at least in the in the short term to see whether the price action could be propelled by an activity like a short squeeze or not and currently it doesn't look to be a factor so with all of that my my short-term outlook on Bitcoin is bearish and you know somewhere in this range I'd be comfortable buying I obviously wouldn't want to see Bitcoin break below 7,000 into the 6 thousands I think we start getting into real midterm trouble there where bitcoins price could take a beating for a long time in the sentiment for Bitcoin could substantially decrease but as long as we stay within this range I think that you know for one it will provide us with a another chance at buying Bitcoin at a healthy support levels and then also support a potential breakout hopefully of this descending channel in the in the mid term and establish a new bullish rally all right we'll take a look at one other coin chain link which is absolutely killing it if you're part of our traders community you know that we've sent alerts out for chain link a few times this year the most recent one being as it broke at this point 3 a to fib level and we are now at above three dollars it's holding the support level which was former resistance really well I would like to see a little more volume here on chain link but as long as it holds the support level in this this magenta line here which coincides roughly with the point 5 fib level then I think we'll be fine for a further rally who'd be great to see us get to at least the 0.618 which is at around three point three dollars and 40 cents all right let's take a look at the traditional markets the traditional markets today remain pretty flat really not not much change in either of the indices I think the markets are bright sing for the china-us trade talks and and you know what whatever outcome that produces but there were a couple of big stocks that slid today let's take a look at Cisco if you look at Cisco it tanked I mean you see this downside gap here it just keeps gapping down as it did you know back in and I did it twice in August and then a major one today this decline consisted of almost eight percent really between yesterday and today so should you buy Cisco here well the reason that Cisco slid was because of disappointing future outlooks as it relates to tech spending so you'll see here that it fell short of earnings as well which is part of the reason for the drop now Cisco is one that I wouldn't rush back to to buy right and there's a reason for that if you look at the the monthly chart for Cisco and this is actually very atypical of tech stocks especially ones that have been around since you know since the the early 90s if you look at Microsoft if you look at Apple if you look at Google you'll see that the the stocks themselves look like a linear progression right it looks like just a one linear line up here's Microsoft for instance just thrashing it right 148 dollars if you look at Google here's Google's chart if you look at Apple for instance you know here's Apple's chart as well going all the way back to to the the early 90s but if you look at Cisco this is what concerns me about Cisco and I mean not it's not a huge concern but one that that doesn't put it in the same categories the other tech stocks is if you look at Cisco it actually peaked in 2000 right this is when it hit above $77 around seventy seven fifty and never came close right so cisco doesn't have a linear progression the way that the other traditional long standing tech stocks do and then if you look at daily the you know the other reason why I'm not jumping back in is because there there really isn't a support level holding it here right yeah we tanked 8% and you're gamblers fallacy inclination is hey you know this major stock tanked it must go up and it might go up at some point but you might be able to get a better price and so where I'm looking at Francisco to buy back is around this support range here between $40 and 42 so I do think we do have further downside action to go this is also supported by the RSI that's declining we have a ways away to go before it's oversold the BFI looks like it's curling inward so does the MACD or the El MACD so I do think we have the potential for a little bit more downside action on Cisco I'm not rushing to buy back on this another stock that we'll look at is Walmart now Walmart absolutely killed its earnings and if you look at its growth in his different sectors I mean just that their sales overall rose by 3.2 percent their e-commerce sales surged I think it jumped 41% from last year the profits were up etc so Walmart is just killing it in every category and this right here is just a probably just a product this the small pullback that we see here because it's down about 0.2% today it's just a product of you know exhaustion after pumping the stock up for for so long it's been you know one of the the best performers of 2019 but I think Walmart is a great value stock and you see that right now support is former resistance right we we spent quite a bit of time up here about you know a month or two and now we're finding support at this level so I'd feel comfortable buying Walmart at this level for the long term the last one we will look at well not the last one but then the other one we'll look at is Nvidia Nvidia form this long ascending triangle going all the way back to last year finally broke out and is now finding some resistance at the 1.27 to fib extension level based on this article on market watch it looks like Nvidia's earnings are actually positive we might see this flat price action here this range-bound price action where you might see this we might see in video finally break out of this by tomorrow and head towards the 1.618 fib level at around 200 $32 so I'm cute keeping my eye out on Nvidia again I send all these levels out in the trade alerts so sign up if you want access to those trade alerts I do stock encrypt or trade alerts as well obviously Disney we've been buying since before this gap I've been accumulating Disney like crazy made a killing on it it is now up to 104 seven dollars and I can and I will plan on holding disney barring an overall market crash obviously I plan on holding Disney for the very long term I do think there is you know somewhere around a 180 to $200 price target on Disney by next year it added ten over ten million subscribers in the first day - its Disney Plus platform and then the WWE is the last one that I'll give you guys the rest you'll have to to look at the trade alerts but the WWE is looking juicy here after gapping down and lost I think 50% since April so it looks like the WWE s at discount here being oversold on the RSI as well this is probably one of the opportune times to get in on this stock anyway that is it for this video go ahead and leave a thumbs up if you got anything out of this if you liked the technical analysis if you need help with your technical analysis I do one on one consultation slash training for technical analysis that same link as the trade alerts is also in the description sign up if you want access to the trade alerts I also do a point zero three Bitcoin drawing for those that sign up I do that every month just to say thank you leave a comment if you have a question or comment subscribe hit that notification bell stay safe out there peace
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