저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Ethereum을 1971년 달러 금태환 중단 이후의 '합성 달러' 시대에 비유해, 스테이블코인·토큰화 자산이 이더리움 위에서 성장하며 ETH가 월가·AI의 기반 자산이 될 것이라 주장. ETH/BTC 비율이 장기 평균(0.0479)과 2021 고점(0.0807) 대비 낮아 회복 여지가 크다고 보고, BTC 25만달러 시 ETH 1.2만~2.2만달러, 재조달 비용 기준 약 6만달러 가능성을 제시. 트레이더 Mark Newton 인용으로 9월 약 5500, 1월 초 9000 도달 가능성 언급. 자산가치는 스테이킹 수익과 주식 발행 등 5가지 경로로 ETH 보유량을 늘리는 데 있다고 설명.
다듬은 글
Hi there, this is Tom Lee. I'm chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies, ticker BMNR, and this is our August chairman's message. Bit mine is building the world's premier Ethereum treasury, and our focus is the alchemy of 5%. Here are some disclaimers. And this is a table of contents of the video I'm going to walk you through.
First is let me just start you with an introduction. You know our philosophy is to build the premier Ethereum treasury and we are achieving this by also delivering exponential growth and we have some critical partners here including Mosaics Capital Pantara Kraken Founders Fund GSR Falcon X DCG and Galaxy and we're doing this by delivering shareholder value through a series of steps and I'm the chairman of the company.
Now, I wanted to focus this video on a couple of things. The Ethereum macro trade and also understanding the network value. That's really what we're going to focus on this month. And in terms of the macro trade, I want to take us back to 1971 when the dollar went fully synthetic. And what I mean by that is that in 1971, President Nixon ended the convertability of the dollar to gold.
So, in other words, the dollar was no longer backed or exchangeable for gold. it was only exchangeable for other dollars. Okay, so what does that mean? Well, that means that in 1971, the dollar became fully synthetic. Now, people in turn went to find a store value, which was gold. But keep in mind, that really wasn't the only thing that happened in 1971.
In 1971, someone had to create a market for the synthetic dollar. Think about that. All of a sudden, we had to make sure people would be willing to use dollars, especially because it was no longer backed by gold. Well, the winner there was Wall Street. And let's see how this uh move by Wall Street created the innovation boom.
In that 15 years after the 1971 moment, Wall Street created many innovative products. They created money market funds, currency futures, debit cards, mortgage back securities, currency swaps, interest rate swaps, S&P index futures, zero coupon bonds, CDOS, and even ETFs. All of that happened following the creation of the synthetic dollar.
In fact, of the 30 largest companies today, seven of these are financial institutions. So, you could see Wall Street was a huge winner as we created the synthetic dollar. Well, Ethereum is having this 1971 moment. And what do I mean by that? Well, there's a couple of things that happened. The Genius Act is creating the stage for a stable coin boom.
And I've covered this in the previous video. And SEC's project crypto is moving Wall Street onto the blockchain. Wall Street is going to financialize the entire system, the existing system of real world assets onto the blockchain, but they're also going to create inefficiencies by itself moving their architecture onto the blockchain.
So, in our view, Ethereum is having its 1971 moment where the real world assets are becoming synthetic or tokenized. Treasury Secretary Bessant sees this becoming a multi-trillion dollar market for stable coins. And it's not just uh stable coins, but banks are already moving to build products on Ethereum, whether it's JP Morgan, Robin Hood, Goldman, Bank of New York, even Walmart and Amazon.
So what does this mean? Well, in 2025, as real world becomes digital, it's going to be natural to say, I want to find the digital store value, and that is Bitcoin. And I'm a believer in Bitcoin. But it's also going to create a market for digital assets. And we think the winner there is Ethereum. And in fact, Wall Street is building here on Ethereum.
So let's just think about one story arc. What is Wall Street going to do to innovate on the blockchain over the next 10-15 years? Well, they're going to build stable coins, tokenize equities, credit, tokenize real estate. They're going to monetize reputation, even monetize intellectual property. And a lot of this is happening on Ethereum, for instance.
This is a tweet from Adriano Furia that Ethereum added $6.3 billion of stable coins just in the last 7 days. Well, that's more than half of all the stable coins Salana has managed to capture in over the last 5 years. It's more than the entire stable coin supply on Hyperlid. And it's 35 times the amount of stable coins circulating supply on Ripple.
And the stable coin supply in Ethereum is now $160 billion. That's double where it was about 18 months ago. So you can see Ethereum is the winner here. And Ethereum has captured the majority of the real world assets. They're all taking place mostly on Ethereum. And Sharpink's chairman Joe Luben agrees.
He says Wall Street will stake ETH because they currently pay for their infrastructure and Ethereum will replace much of the many siloed stacks they operate. Again, you can see a lot of this is taking place on Ethereum. And it's not just Wall Street. Um AI is also building products on the blockchain.
In fact, um you know, we think one of the big story arcs is that it's not just Wall Street building itself onto the blockchain. It's really AI converging onto Ethereum. One of the co-founders of Ethereum actually said this. He thinks Ethereum could be the key to AI decentralization and actually act as a decentralized partner in solving current problems with AI intelligence platforms.
So what does that mean? Well, that means that you're going to monetize data collection, royalties, loyalty programs, verify agentic AI, and proof of humanity. that's also taking place on Ethereum. So you can see the future is quite bright and that's why uh you know we come back to this analysis by edigital oil.com that Ethereum's productive essentially is the underlying token that's going to power both Wall Street and AI.
And keep in mind as you worry about supply Ethereum supply is growing below that of Bitcoin. And we also know as an asset class, if we think of Ethereum as digital oil, well, that's really what's a market should be used to. From 1990 to 2018, Exon Mobile was one of the top five largest companies in the S&P 500, and it was always valued on a multiple of its uh price to oil reserves.
So, let's think about Ethereum's network value in that context. Well, here's Ethereum's price since 2018. And as you can see, there's two periods I'm shading here. These are called bases. And in white's meth methodologies, they say the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. And what they mean by that is that you're creating a lot of potential energy as as a stock or a network asset bases and then eventually leads to a breakout.
Well, let's look at that breakout. Um, in 2020 that breakout took place and Ethereum went from $90 to 48.66 or 54 times increase. Well, the low point here in this base was 1385. So, with this breakout, we're expecting an upside move. Is it potentially 54x? I'm not sure, but that's what happened last time.
Another way to think about Ethereum is the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio. And in our view, the tailwind ones I'm talking about argue for an all-time high in this ratio. The 8-year average Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio is 0.04790 and it's currently 0.0432, meaning we're below the long-term average. The all-time high in this ratio was 0.080727.
Of course, it started off higher, but I'm talking about the 21 2021 all-time high. So, we think that not only should Ethereum recover to the long-term average, it should probably get to the all-time high ratio and arguably exceed it as we start talking about Ethereum acting as the chain for both Wall Street to build its payment rails and the financial system as well as AI.
So, let's think about what that means for price. So, I have a grid here. On the left side is Bitcoin price levels and then going across are various levels of the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio. Our year- end target, this is from the fund strat side for Bitcoin is $250,000. And um if you look at the aar average, okay, then you can see the range of prices for Ethereum using this ratio and different levels of Bitcoin.
And here's the 2021 high. And as you can see, at a $250,000 Bitcoin, uh you get to somewhere between 12,000 and $22,000 value per Ethereum token. But um that's just a ratio recovery. If you look at the replacement cost of payment rails and the banking system, that gets you to an implied value of Ethereum of around 60,000.
And that puts the ratio at roughly.250 Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio. And as you can see, that's how you get to $62,000 per Ethereum token. So plenty of upside. I also asked Fundstret's Mark Newton for his technical take on Ethereum and he thinks Ethereum could reach 9,000 by early January. According to him, Ethereum could reach 9,000 in late January, but he also believes that in September, Ethereum could be set to reach somewhere between uh 5500 or so.
And now, let's turn to digital asset treasury fundamentals. There's five ways for a digital asset treasury like Bitmine to increase its Ethereum held per share. It can issue stock at a premium to the dollar held of ETH per share. It can do equity link securities to monetize volatility. It can use income from operations to buy more ETH.
It can earn staking rewards and invest more in Ethereum. or it can acquire digital asset treasuries click trading close to NAV and Ethereum treasury companies are crypto infrastructure businesses. First of all, Ethereum is a proofofstake blockchain. So, Ethereum treasury companies secure the network.
Ethereum generates a staking yield and that's effectively revenues for Ethereum treasury companies. Staking secures the network. So these treasury companies are providing a an important security operation and eventually stable coin issuers and real world assets will want to stake ETH. And again, as Joe Luben points out, he believes that this is what Wall Street will ultimately do.
And uh here's an example um or I think the best example of a successful crypto treasuries micro strategy which has seen the stock price go from 13 to 335 over the last 5 years. As you can see 10 times of the return came from Bitcoin's rise from 11,000 to 108,000. But 25 times of the total return of the stock price from 13 to 335 implies that the treasury function delivered roughly um 15 times that return.
Let's summarize with Bitmine financials and strategy. Now, Bitcoin is the number two crypto treasure in the world with roughly 8.98 billion of Ethereum held. And as you can see, it trails only Micro Strategy, but it's larger than um the third, fourth or fifth largest crypto treasuries by a significant margin.
And uh Bitmine has grown its treasury holdings quite rapidly. This is e uh Micro Strategies accumulation of Bitcoin over the last 5 years. And you can see that Bitmine has raised uh 8.9 billion um something that took Micro Strategy over 1200 days um to reach. And uh let's not forget the road map ahead that Bitine has many phases to its operations, but ultimately the focus is on getting to 5% of the Ethereum network. Thanks for listening and I'll speak to you soon.
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