저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 엔비디아 하락이 중국 매출 미포함에 대한 실망일 뿐이며 데이터센터 성장 가속으로 결국 시장이 자신의 관점에 동의할 것이라고 주장. AI는 4차 산업혁명 인프라 단계로 아직 초기이며 단기 공포는 매수 기회라 봄. 팔란티어 시총 1조 달러 도달 전망과 목표가 상향. 반면 마이클 버리는 엔비디아·팔란티어 풋옵션 매수 및 클라우드 수익률 둔화를 근거로 거품 경고. 골드만·모건스탠리 CEO는 향후 12~24개월 내 10~15% 조정 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
stock is green today. By the end of the day, Dan, that's what you're saying. You think that by the end of the day, people will realize, come around to your point of view, that actually what the disappointment was was a non-inclusion of any China sales, but a real robust uh growth elsewhere. Is that your argument?
you just exactly like summarize it because the reality is is that when you look at data center and then you actually factor in what China's going to be when you look at two to five billion and you look at the acceleration in the next few quarters I mean there's no region that's not accelerating and now in China with the payforplay model back in you're talking about could be an incremental 20 25 30 billion that's what it comes down to the the godfather of AI
an explanation of Michael Bur's massive Nvidia short Michael Bur purchased put options on 5 million Palenter shares and 1 million Nvidia shares. Michael Bur alone, yes, the same person who predicted the 2008 meltdown is now criticizing the AI revolution. This time, however, the story may not finish as Bur believes.
So, before you freak out, pay attention to what Jim Kramer and Dan Ives have to say. Panic strikes Wall Street in Nvidia's worst week of 2025. Nvidia recently experienced one of its worst weeks in 2025, falling more than 10% as Wall Street is once again overcome with anxiety. You've seen the headlines about the end of the AI trade, Nvidia panic selling, and the implosion of the AI bubble.
The problem is that individuals who truly get this market, such as Jim Kramer and Don Ies, are presenting an entirely different picture. Let's have a conversation because the current sell-off may be one of the most misinterpreted of the year. They never understood this market. As the quote from Dan Ies versus the Bears dot.
So this is our current situation. The value of AI has skyrocketed. Nvidia became the first firm in history to briefly reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. The typical sound then started AI is a bubble. This is a repeat of the dot catastrophe. Dot. However, Wed Bush's Don Ives, one of the few tech analysts who has been correct since the beginning of this AI boom, made a strong statement this week.
Bears have never understood this tech AIdriven bull market since early 2023. He stated, and I quote him, "The size and extent of this fourth industrial revolution are being underestimated by the street." And that's where the story's core lies. Infrastructure, not the high-es, is looking at something far larger.
While short-term traders are freaking out at a 10% drop, this isn't hype. He says infrastructure is what it is. With the help of Nvidia, Paltor, Microsoft, and Open AI, a new global economy is being formed, and the money coming in is just getting started. Ives was supported even by Jim Kramer. Yep, the man who has witnessed every market cycle for decades.
He stated unequivocally that this retreat does not resemble a bubble pop. According to Kramer, investors aren't seeing the whole picture. AI is no longer a buzz. It generates income. Look, Nvidia's figures support that. Profits are still high. Governments and large corporations are spending more on AI infrastructure.
Nvidia is currently priced at about 27 times anticipated earnings even after this sellup. That is less expensive than both Costco and Walmart. Given how solid the fundamentals are, how can this be a bubble? Today the stock is up. You're saying that by the end of the day, Don, you believe that eventually people would understand and agree with you that the disappointment was really that there were no sales in China, but that there was a strong expansion in other places.
Is it your point of contention? You summed it up perfectly because in truth there isn't a single place that isn't accelerating when you look at data centers and take into account what China is going to beat 2 to 5 billion as well as the acceleration in the next quarters. Now that the payforplay model has returned to China, you're talking about an additional 20 25 or 30 billion.
It therefore boils down to Jensen, the godfather of AI. I'm a little concerned about this buildup beforehand because it's more by the rumors sell the news. Semiconductor firms are at the first stage of the AI continuum. Applications and data centers make up the second stage while consumer applications of AI are the focus of the third stage.
We're beginning to depart from the first part I believe compared to say semiconductors. Apps and other components should now perform better. The AI revolution is powered by a single chip worldwide. That's Jensen and Nvidia, the godfather of AI. Additionally, I believe that investors are beginning to realize that we haven't even seen the largest growth driver of AI yet, which is autonomous and robots, which will ultimately affect consumers as well as enterprise and use cases.
It's not just $4 trillion in my opinion. I mean, Nvidia's market capitalization is expected to reach $5 trillion. IVS doubles down on Palanter's trillion potential. take a moment to discuss Palanteer as I also doubled down there. We believe this will be a trillion dollar market cap company within the next 2 years.
He stated Ives increased his price target despite this week's 8% decline. Conviction is that dot and despite the hubhub, this AI rally is being propelled ahead by the same confidence. This is where investors go wrong though. They believe the story is ended when they see red candles. The smart money is purchasing in the interim.
It's a misperception of scale. According to Don Ies, it's short-term anxiety and a long-term upheaval. According to Jim Kramer, they both agree that the AI boom is still in its second phase. Because, keep in mind, Nvidia sells more than simply chips. Every significant AI business in the world is having its nervous system built by them.
And a poor trading week isn't the reason to undo a revolution like that. Thus, the market is indeed afraid at the moment. Zooming out, however, reveals that the start of every significant bull run looks just like this. Opportunity, disbelief, and volatility. Why? The next great opportunity is being created by fear.
Jim Kramer is stating the same thing as Dan Ies. It's not the end of the, it's the preparation for the higher leg. Therefore, keep in mind that every great tech story had a panic before it created millionaires. So, don't allow fear dictate your next course of action. Let's hear what analysts have to say about Palunteer and Nvidia.
I assure you that this is only the beginning of the narrative. This is the Nvidia report channel. Yes, this AI trade now has a negative remark from hedge fund manager Michael Bur who predicted the 2007 financial crisis and the collapse of the US housing market. That kind of gives some reality to what might occur over the next years.
And it's possibly one of the strongest calls on this bubble risk that we've had thus far. Michael Bur, his hedge fund manager, purchased put options on 1 million shares of Nvidia and 5 million shares of Palunteer overnight. To put it precisely, 1 million shares would be worth around 187 million. and those 5 million Palenter shares.
Well, that's around 9 million given that we have just discussed the valuation of these two important participants in this AI arms race. Michael Bur is placing a fairly sizable wager on both of these businesses. Additionally, he made a quite intriguing post on X yesterday after the market closed. In essence, he displayed one or a few charts, but one in particular focused on the cloud revenue sectors for Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
He also mentioned that these three companies had returns of 36%, 45% and 22% between 2018 and 22 dot. Additionally, the return on all of those or all three of those cloud sector revenues has decreased dramatically over the last few years. These are not the charts you're looking for, he remarked, referring to the visual that is now displayed on the screen.
You are free to carry on with your business. And this was following the release of this filing. A regulatory filing for the quarter ending September 30th served as the basis for this. We're only now beginning to understand it, and that's undoubtedly making investors a little nervous this morning. Despite the fact that he hits all a series of clues and implication, he won't be releasing a lengthy tirade about all of this.
He simply dropped the topics you discussed. Simultaneously, we are also receiving input on valuations from prominent asset managers who attended a conference in Hong Kong. Yes, David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, spoke to us at this financial gathering. Tedpic, the CEO of Morgan Stanley, also spoke to us.
They basically stated that we might be witnessing a decline because these valuations are now quite high. Ted Pika, CEO of Morgan Stanley, specifically stated that we should be happy about the prospect of 10% to 15%. Draw downs that aren't caused by a macro cliff effect, describing it as a positive development.
That was somewhat echoed by David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs. However, a lot of CEOs have told us that investors should prepare for a possible 10% decline in the market during the next 12 to 24 months. Naturally, the market has had a notable surge in recent years, reaching record highs, which has resulted in these extremely noteworthy values.
Therefore, hearing a small modification here is undoubtedly changing the tone. If this analysis was useful to you, please hit the bell and subscribe. We'll continue to cut through the clutter and show you what's actually going on behind the headlines.
Comments 0