저자: JimRogers-진행자Wealthion인터뷰 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 현재 시장이 장기 약세로 가는 과정이며, 곧 심각한 글로벌 경기침체와 역사상 최악 수준의 약세장이 올 수 있다고 전망한다. 중국이 단기적으로 재개방을 통해 경기를 일부 부양할 수 있으나 전체 흐름은 하락이라고 본다. 거대한 랠리는 장기 약세장 말기에 나타나는 경우가 많아, 이번 상승도 마지막 랠리(last gasp)일 가능성이 높다고 주장한다. 1999~2000년 나스닥 사례를 근거로 든다. 단기적으로는 지나치게 비관하지 말고 상승 랠리에 일부 참여할 수 있으나, 비관론이 극에 달하면 반대편으로 갈아탈 준비를 하라고 조언한다. 중앙은행이 다시 돈을 찍으면 인플레이션이 돌아오고, 채권은 버블 상태라 수십 년간 강세장이 어렵다고 본다. 부동산과 여러 주식도 문제가 있으며, 현재 가격이 싼 것은 실물자산(은, 밀, 설탕 등)이라고 언급한다. 설탕과 은은 고점 대비 약 70% 하락했다고 한다. 현재는 디스인플레이션 국면이며, 연준이 수요를 죽이려 하고 있어 그 흐름이 몇 개 분기 더 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 그 와중에도 일부 핫 주식은 잠시 오를 수 있으나 결국 실물자산 강세장이 온다고 판단한다. 스태그플레이션 국면에서는 본인이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하라는 원칙을 강조하며, 최근 우즈베키스탄 투자를 시작했다고 밝힌다. 개인적인 조언으로는 자녀가 스스로 열정을 찾고, 남들이 웃어도 좋아하는 일을 따라가라고 말한다.
다듬은 글
that said there there are cross currents that will be going on here probably the whole time but but cross currents in other words while things are slowing China may come to the rescue in the near term by opening back up and goosing things a little bit but overall the trajectory is going to be down and at some point we're going to tip into a really bad Global recession um likely to be accompanied by a bad bear Market as you've been saying maybe the worst bear Market of your lifetime and therefore our lifetimes as well um they're heavy Arc right or or is there anything else you'd put in there gigantic rallies have often happened at the end of World Market so the beginning of biomarkers so we may well have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if you ask me usually at the end of a long School Market when you have a gigantic rally at the end it's usually the end I mean if you can remember NASDAQ at the end of 1999 and 2000 I mean it's skyrocketed somebody doubled in six months or something uh just as we were about to collapse this is the way markets work fortunately or unfortunately so I I just want to point out when you have a lot of pessimism start thinking about going to the other side for a while we've also had people that have said we've had the longest secular bull market in history 40 years or so by some people's measurement and you would expect that to end with a blow-off Spike as opposed to a whimper um not saying you necessarily share that point of view but the scenario that you just laid out could in some ways validate what those people are saying too but what I hear you saying is is um there are reasons for why we could have a bad rally what I hear you're saying is I wouldn't trust that as being a secular return to a bull market it's more like the last gasp it's the last rally before things really roll over well as I would repeat about the end of the 1999-2000 with that beginning of that bear Market it skyrocketed there at the end after a long secular bull market and then it would everybody thought happy days are here again this is going to go on forever an interesting sideline in 1999 I think that was exact year the Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal I mean not some neighborhood newspaper started using with capital letters that words the expression the new economy capital n capital e this is the way they The Wall Street Journal referred to the world it was the new economy absolutely and capital E they don't do it anymore by the way yeah it took him a while but eventually they stopped capitalizing new economy but that's how things get in longboard markets that's how Wild again and that last gasp as we were discussing before can be wildly exciting if you're on the right side all right so in the immediate term don't get too pessimistic reserve the right to you know participate in in a big surge here but don't don't flip to being a permeable because it could very well end um I have heard I've seen too many times when everybody was on the same side of the boat you better go to the other side of the boat when that happens is there any particular Council that you would give to the regular investor the the viewer of this this video here um who's who would love to participate in some upside but really their priority is just not to get killed by the downside here back to what I said before when the central banks panic and start printing money again inflation comes back and the you know bonds are certainly in a bubble they're not going to be in a bull market for decades property is going to have problems as we've discussed many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap are real assets and if they print money when they print money it leads to some things going higher but those are usually silver wheat you know real assets the price of sugar is down 70 percent from its all-time high that's not a bubble the price of silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high those are not bubble kind of numbers so the only thing that is cheap that I know of I mean yes there's property some places yes blah blah but but the only thing as a class are real assets and they do go up when there's a lot of money Printing and so I if people know about real assets maybe they should do more research and homework and maybe that's a way to protect yourself but right now it seems like we are in a period of dis we're back into a period of dis inflation right where we're coming down from the highs that the CPI has been at Jerome Powell and his team are doing everything they can to kill demand um that likely will probably go on for a few more months or quarters um unless and until you know there's something that forces a Fed pivot in the interim there the stock some stocks will go up too I mean you know the Hot Shots the Hot Shot stocks will go up again for a while yes everybody will rush in and say hooray Happy Days Are Here Again you know Amazon will go through the roof for a while you know 10 cent will go through the roof for a while but in the end usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and for those who know what they're doing be prepared does it differ at all in stagflations I've started investing in Uzbekistan recently but most people watching this show couldn't find Uzbekistan on a map it was one of the Soviet republics it was a disaster it was ruined by the Communists and even after the communist and so it's very cheap but now the people running the place run the way run the country the way you and I would and it's cheap and there are not many stocks so that might be an example but my main answer to that question which is Baker stand feeds into is only invest in what you know about if you want to be successful stay with what you know everybody watching this show knows a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or sports or something I'm just curious is there any other Council beyond what you've shared so far I'm just talking about life in general as a father raising children and in your case two daughters and I have two daughters so I've got a selfish hand in this fight how can you help them have some optimism in this future if they're stepping into or there will be some of these challenges and you're a successful guy what are some successful Secrets just for happiness in life you're passing on to your kids well the answer to that question is and I I don't know how to do it but is to teach them to figure out their own Passions and then follow their own passions don't listen to their parents don't listen to their teachers don't listen to their friends figure out what they love and if people laugh at you when you tell them what you love and what you're going to do that really means you're doing the right thing you know you know you're on the right on the right track then uh because that Adam those are the successful people in life they get up every day they never go to work they get up and have a good time and they're usually successful because they love what they're doing so much no matter how absurd it is
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