저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 달러 기축통화 체제는 장기적으로 끝날 수 있으나 단기간 대체는 어려우며, 금이 달러 자산보다 유리하다는 입장이다. 거시 환경: 정부·중앙은행의 적자 재정과 화폐 발행이 인플레이션을 키우고 있으며, 터키(인플레 80%)처럼 당장은 기능하더라도 영구적으로 지속될 수 없다고 본다. 기축통화 전망: 파운드·멕시코 페소처럼 달러도 언젠가 기축 지위를 잃을 것이라 보지만 시점은 특정하지 않는다. 브릭스 통화는 신뢰 부족으로 실현이 어렵고, 가능성이 있다면 암호화폐 기술 또는 금·은에 기반한 실물 자산 통화가 더 유력하다고 본다. 자산 배분: 해외 부유층도 여전히 달러 자산을 보유하고 있어 단기간 전환은 어렵다. 일본 국채(10년 약 0.5%)보다 미국 10년물(약 4%)이 낫다는 점에서 단기적으로는 달러 자산도 매력이 있지만, 장기적으로는 금을 선택하겠다고 밝힌다. 디플레이션 리스크: 디플레이션이 오면 임금·주택 가격이 붕괴하고 달러 채무가 상환되지 않는 대규모 파산이 생길 수 있어 달러 자산보다 금이 낫다고 본다. 미국 뉴욕 상업용 빌딩 공실률 22%를 위험 신호로 언급한다. 사회·생활 전망: 도시화 추세가 바뀔 수 있으며, 원격근무가 가능하면 이탈리아 시골 등 저가 부동산에서 생활하는 선택지도 제시한다. 1945년 이후 세대는 경제 성장과 평화를 누렸으나 정부 확대로 문제가 누적되고 있다고 평가한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 금은 장기 보유 가치가 크고, 달러는 장기적으로 약화될 가능성이 높다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
yeah so so back to my original question mark so how does this end you know do these countries have an elegant way of of somehow getting out of this or and I'm going to use an extreme example here I'm not saying this is going to happen but but do does it go more than Sri Lankan route where just it gets to a point where everybody doesn't have an option except rising up against who's running the country because it's just not working for them anymore well Sri Lanka has one problem uh it's not the US they can't print their money without right away feeling consequences yeah the U.S still has the reserve currency but that will come to an end in my view I don't know when but it will come to an end that we should all know but I think uh the easy option is what the FED has enabled print money deficits which of course just end one day it will end one day but for now as I said in the Turkey the country functions perfectly well is 80 inflation right but you have said that it's it's lit the fuse right you know that it can't do that forever and now we want to last forever I think we are in for a period the generation born just uh at the end of the second world war up to now they were too young essentially to go to into the Vietnam War or most of them and uh they experienced in Europe and in the U.S unprecedented increase in Wales among peace there was the Cold War but it they didn't shoot at each other and so and the Chinese opened up in 78 after 1990 the country took off like a rocket and in India as soon as they gave up the policies of isolation and socialism the country boomed by about eight percent gross per annum for the last 30 years we will have to see this the the capitalistic system as soon as it was adopted in Poland in the Czech Republic in the Eastern Europe overall and in Latin America and in India and Pakistan and so forth and in China we had that led to very strong growths this is a period unique in history and we are destroying ourselves with that there was just an article the other day in the Wall Street Journal that from the now actually in The Spectator this very good paper because they are journeys that think something anyway the article referred to Jefferson at the Constitution and how as a society we created newer and newer problems okay well a lot of people think that you know that that is the legacy of government and the more government you have the more problems it creates right yeah of course and the government has to expand to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy um so guys there's so many places I could take that but let me let me zero in on this um there's been a lot of talk lately about uh the the brics countries really coming together in even more swiftly in the wake of the Ukraine war um given how the the West went to uh you know has Iced Out the Russians and so the Russians are kind of you know cementing their own relationships um uh there's a lot of talk about a brics currency that's uh in the works and it's going to be a basket of Commodities but it's going to be priced in Gold grams um from your Vantage Point how how real is all of that well the reality is that every Reserve currency where it was the pound or the Mexican peso and so Force eventually they disappeared will it be a currency of brics countries who knows because the the brics countries don't trust each other yeah and that is a good point yeah but uh I think it could be a currency based on crypto technology or it could be a currency based on gold I think this is the most likely outcome that is based on a certain quantity of gold and silver on a hard asset but how soon this will happen I mean if you ask any Indonesian Pakistani Indian Chinese and so was uh you go to their country and you tell them oh you're successful businessman and suppose and you know you have an account overseas I can manage it and so forth all these people they hold Assets in US Dollars all of them that is the reality and until I can go to a wealthy International family or a wealthy Malaysian or Thai family and say look you should invest in this brics currency and so forth it will take a lot of persuasion until they do it if I go to them and say you should invest some of your money in Gold that they will do but they will also say well called you know is not a good investment we make much more in our stock market and the stock market is the president's voice and so so nowadays these people are quite sophisticated they know the that this is a big difference of the last 50 years you see 50 years ago you had the British Empire collapsed off the second world war the American Empire developed but most people around the world except for Europe were uneducated economically and monetary wise you know the lots of million billionaires in Hong Kong they started out as coolies a schoolies that's amazing at all Sam Walton what it wasn't an indicated person either so this is a a world where now the children have it had educational and support they know very well and they also read the papers and the the news and the social media and they know that the world is not divided between the good U.S and the evil empire Russia and China and the evil India and all these big countries all right well look when I grew up we all believed in the US we all admired the U.S as children in Europe because the U.S had made a major contribution in essentially defeating uh Germans right and and what's important here I just want to give you a chance to underscore this is there are some people that that listen to comments you make and other people like you make of oh the central banks are going to keep Printing and uh the West is in Decline and they think okay therefore our currency is going to be worth nothing tomorrow and there's going to be a new Reserve currency and it's going to be the bricks and and um I you know what I hear you're saying is yes that may be the long-term trajectory but you you to be practical you know it takes a long time for habits and opinions and sentiment to shift and it's not like the world is going to give up on the dollar right now and to your point very tellingly you go to most countries and say okay I'll give you an equivalent amount in either US dollars or in your local currency most cases people say well I'll definitely take the dollars right and that's not going to be given up overnight I don't think so and number two you also have to look I can have a deposit in I can buy a 10 years a Japanese Bond it yields 0.5 percent in the U.S I buy 10 years it yields uh four percent I mean close to four percent so why not invest in US dollars for the next 10 years now I if you tell me you can invest in US dollars for the next 10 years or in Gold I'll choose gold no question about this okay and and just elaborate on it for the viewer here well I mean I I think whatever happens say we have a scenario of deflation deflation everything collapses your wages my wages our houses collapse everything it is a complete calamity then I'm rather be involved than in dollars because in the dollar obligations will not be paid you know if the real estate prices in America drop 30 percent the massive bankruptcy and it may happen in commercial you know the vacancy rate in New York is now among commercial buildings 22 percent wow 22 percent if we live in a world which is very interesting because for the last 200 years the trend is urbanization now I sit in Chiang Mai I talk to you I have Bloomberg on my computer it was difficult to install it and then you can live anywhere if I were young and I was a so-called um how do they call them the migrants workers or whatever then I would go and live in a small village in Italy it's almost free of charge you can buy properties for nothing in the countryside I I've heard that literally like a dollar I mean you're you're signing up for a lot of repairs but yes yes but if you are manually halfway normal in other words you had a hammer once a while in your hands where Americans with their foreign policy is always the hammer they can rebuild the house
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