저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500는 8,000 도달 후 조정 가능성이 있다고 봄(마진부채 과다, 연준 신임 의장 Warsh 및 채권시장 우려, 중간선거, SpaceX 락업 해제 등). 2027 EPS 410→월말 425 전망, 20배 적용 시 9,000 근접. AI 수요와 경기 강세는 긍정 요인으로 인정. Moderna 암백신 3상 성공으로 주가 하루 약 176% 급등, 단기 매매 관점에서 기회일 수 있다고 언급. Micron은 NAND 점유율 상승에도 조정 중이나 AI 메모리 부족으로 성장 지속을 낙관, 50% 성장 예상. 두 사회자 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
Setbacks happen when we least expect them. You know, usually when investors are optimistic. Tom Lee predicted that the market is in for a correction after the S&P 500 hits 8,000. Plus, why WeWork shares are up 150% today and why Micron is falling. I'. Now . The program features Tom Lee, Stephanie Guild of Robinhood, and Courtney Garcia of Payne Capital.
Tom and Courtney are co-hosts for CNBC. Greetings to everyone. Nice to see you, Tom. That was just what was needed , wasn't it? That's right. We got a good CPI report, and on the back of good earnings, stocks are rising on positive news. I think the rally is quite healthy and it is in line with our forecast that we can reach 7900 –8000 by the end of the month.
Well, that's exactly what you predicted the other day. Ed Yardeni says, "We're moving so well right now that we could hit 8,400 by the end of the year because of the earnings story that we keep talking about." Do you think this makes sense? Yes, I think that's kind of the foundation, because the 2027 earnings are now around 410.
At the beginning of the reporting season, it was around 395, and by the end of this month, it's probably going to be around 425. So if you apply a multiplier of 20, you're already approaching 9,000. We keep saying that you were optimistic. That's right. You were right. But you constantly predict a possible 10% pullback in stocks at a certain point.
We have n't seen this yet. And today in your note you note, and I quote: the positive drivers for stocks in the near term remain, this is fundamental demand for AI, right? The strengthening of the US economy, a positive earnings revision and the fact that inflation remains more subdued than expected.
These don't sound like catalysts for a 10% pullback. So what are they? Well, I think reaching 8,000 at the end of August will set us up for a period where stocks could disappoint, despite good fundamentals. Partly because the margin debt became too large. Partly because we haven't yet decided how the market perceives Kevin Warsh and his new structure.
Will the bond market throw a tantrum? And third, the midterm elections are coming up, and I think that's a source of uncertainty. And finally, I believe that SpaceX, which had an initial share unlock, still has a significant amount of shares that need to be unlocked. So I think all of these are potential pitfalls in the future.
OK. Steph, what do you think about this? Well, I agree that generally when there is a period of, say, a hedge fund crash, it is a sign that there may be too easy credit conditions and leverage building up . I think it's kind of cleared up, but I don't think we'll have another case like this . I just think that in this environment where AI is driving the processes, you end up getting almost instant crashes.
I heard Jordi Visser from 22V talk about this and I agree because I believe you get parabolic moves and then some consolidation. I also believe that interest rates are certainly a risk that could continue to rise. But I also agree that there are strong fundamentals . So I think it will be a struggle within the market.
the market was amazing in the face of what you described. You know, the hedge fund crash, the yield surge . But haven't we become a little cleaner in many ways now, haven't we ? Inflationary pressures have eased a bit, positioning has improved, and we have reduced leverage a bit. Tom is right, there is still a fair amount of leverage, margin debt, etc.
in the system, but it seems like we have cleaned up some of it. If you look at, say, the balance for the last 30 days. So, monthly performance : financials almost 4%, technology 3.25%, industrials 2.5%, healthcare 4.6%, materials over 3%. This is exactly what people were hoping for, right? Yes, that's a broad scope.
I think that's a sign, and of course, as you know, global markets are doing well, and there are still several trillion dollars of cash left in the accounts. And I think there's still a pretty high level of healthy skepticism because a lot of our institutional clients believe that either the AI trend is overheated or we're in the late stages of the earnings cycle.
It's like an income bubble that's about to burst at some point. That's right. And then, of course, they believe that the Fed should respond to this by tightening policy. So I think there are people who are watching the end of the bull market, and I think that's what keeps it healthy. According to Tom Lee, the markets do not trust the new head of the Federal Reserve, and we have midterm elections coming up, which will affect the market.
This could be an opportunity to buy some pretty expensive stocks. This could be an opportunity to buy some good stocks. e article is titled " Moderna's Cancer Breakthrough Changes Fortunes and Revives Stocks." Is n't that right? So, one of the key points: Merck and Moderna's personalized vaccine kept melanoma patients cancer-free for longer than standard treatment during phase 3 trials.
The company will coordinate with the US regulator to submit an application for approval of the combination treatment. The vaccine is individualized and developed using Moderna's messenger RNA technology . The vaccine contains mutations unique to each patient's tumor. So it's very specialized, which is why the stock is up 176% right now.
This is an incredible increase in a day. You know, this vaccine release, as you can see, the significant uptick this year was fueled by optimism about personalized cancer vaccines that could transform oncology and reimagine the company after the successes of the pandemic. The promise could soon become reality, right?
A study of 1,000 patients found that the combination kept patients cancer-free longer than standard treatments after melanoma removal. So this result marked the first success of the third phase of cancer vaccine trials, which means the drugmaker can ask the regulator to approve the drug for sale. This is a huge breakthrough for Moderna, and that's why the stock jumped 139% on Wednesday, and is up 176-177% overall for the day.
This is actually very good. This is a breakthrough in the cancer vaccine field, and while some analysts are a bit skeptical, I think it's positive news for the stock, and I applaud those who own it. If you have them, but this kind of overnight growth—I've actually never seen anything like it before.
So, that's pretty good. This could still be a buying opportunity. I'm not sure, but if you missed it, it's probably a deal or a short-term trade. And then you can sell them later, but I'll stay away for now . But yes, this is a pretty good breakout and it will give the stock a lot of momentum moving forward.
Now let's look at Micron. So, Micron shares are gaining memory market share. However, stocks are still falling. So, the bottom line is that Micron Technology shares fell on Wednesday after falling 7% in the previous session. The combined revenue of the five largest public flash memory brands grew 77% in the second quarter compared to the previous one.
Micron's share of the NAND flash memory market by revenue grew by 15% in the second quarter; Micron Technology shares are preparing for a second day of decline after briefly returning to the $1,000-a- share mark on Monday. Shares of the memory chip maker fell 2% Wednesday afternoon, to $921.68. But overall, I don't think this is bad news for Micron.
I still think they have great growth potential. Personally, I predict Micron growth of 50%. But now the company is facing some minor difficulties. However, I am convinced that there is a clear memory shortage for AI, and Micron will be one of the main beneficiaries of this. And SanDisk, of course. But overall, these are still solid stocks.
I believe that current levels are a good buying opportunity. They may fall a little or stay the same for now , but I believe Micron is a strong company. It will continue to develop successfully. It will continue to gain market share, and of course there is a memory shortage . So she has no other choice but to continue growing .
That's it. So do your own research before buying these stocks, but I really wanted to highlight the rise in Moderna stock. What a breakthrough for them, and congratulations to everyone who owned these stocks or bought them low and took profits. , see you next time, and follow the link below to my community. Thank you.
Comments 0