저자: TomLee · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 대표 기업으로 장기 투자자는 조정기를 매수 기회로 삼을 것을 권함. 단기로는 급등 후 변동성이 클 수 있어 추격매수 자제, 분할매수 권고. 2025년 상반기 AI 투자 소화 국면(digestion) 가능성을 경고하며, 엔비디아는 연말까지 신고점 경신 가능성을 언급. 밸류에이션은 높으나 매크로·성장 측면에서 지지된다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I'm not sure whether I need to ask you for a precise price estimate onvia at this time what do we now require from it in any case Nvidia is a prominent company and remains at the Forefront of the shift that is coming with AI long-term investors should in my opinion use nvidia's congestion and consolidation as chances to increase their Holdings if they aren't already for everyone else I believe it's simply a time to exercise patience as equities naturally don't rise all at once but there are a few stocks that are rising n Vidia has increased by roughly 3% beginning Wednesday the business will hold a 3-day Summit in Washington it has increased by 25% in the last month as a result of that action its market capitalization has risen above $3 trillion once more surpassing Microsoft to take second place only surpassed by Apple you told us a sobering story about how even the most powerful groundbreaking businesses can eventually see a decline in their stock price from 1997 to 2006 Microsoft simply said Wham breaking even took 17 years Nvidia isn't located here at the moment is it we don't believe so Charles but when things are going well we sometimes forget about the past because we deal with high net worth individual investors I refer to it as The Crucible of fear and greed since everyone wants to be in while things are going well and to leave when they aren't in order to remind people that Microsoft the greatest Corporation in the last 30 to 40 years has had some difficult periods we wrote a little article about the company our phones have been ringing non-stop as nvidia's stock has been rising we've got to have more Nvidia got to have more Nvidia although we don't believe we're in a Microsoft scenario stocks that have run that quickly typically consolidate because trees don't grow to the sky however Todd using the same chart is it possible that we are in a par syic era at this point and if that's the case there's a significant difference between getting out here and staying out here people will undoubtedly call you on your Ascent asking you pointed questions such why am I not in naturally the phones don't ring when it falls do they yes absolutely thus Nvidia has skyrocketed two months after reaching an intraday high of $140 per share in June it fell to the '90s if hyperscaling persists extreme High volatility akin to an earthquake aftershot pattern will most likely be the typical pattern it's quite thrilling but we advise our clients not to chase these stocks when they go high use volatility to your advantage hold your horses and keep your dollar cost average and check you combine the four 12month PE ratios in the PSL as well correct here PE multiples it's clear that Nvidia is in a class by itself how much money would you invest in such a venture for example would you want to utilize a PG Ratio or something similar how many stocks are you choosing for the portfolio based only on PE ratios and similar criteria you can use a lot of valuation indicators of course but Nvidia will ping the top bar on all of them if we use the poster child for highly priced thus we examine a wide range of topics this demonstrates how highly valued the AI ecosystem stocks the white hot NASDAQ 100 as some of your value Brands Superior valuations are is there still a deal to be had there in a week when there will be a lot of news about semiconductors whether it's Nvidia speaking in Washington or amd's event which includes this update with super micro does the industry still have room for improvement once more I believe you will need to choose stocks therefore I don't think it will surprise me if Nvidia reaches new all-time record highs before the year ends because Blackwell in a strange way a delay benefits from it because no one wants to fall behind and miss out on those chips which are two to three times more powerful than the ones that are currently available as a result we actually like Nvidia through the end of the year I've been fairly forthright in my belief that an AI digestion phase is imminent in my opinion it will occur in the first half of 2025 when that happens I believe you're going to have a tremendous problem because the companies that have been investing all of this money on AI have experienced the decline in their sales rather than an increase by that what do I mean following their June quarter reports Hogle Microsoft and Amazon three of the top four Spenders on AI infrastructure all saw a decline in their forward Revenue projections which is why those stocks had some problems you will therefore experience a digesting phase unless you can see that all of the expenditures are converted into income when these same customers absorbed all of the covid spend video revenues which had previously increased by over 80% year-over-year fell by over 20% year-over-year furthermore it is evident from a chart of Nvidia or the seus that they eventually recovered from the lower end of that upward Trend Carter I'm sure has an opinion on this to return to the index level the markets have been looking for leadership from semiconductors which has led the NASDAQ which has led the SNP meanwhile nvidia's stock is up around 3% today marking its fourth consecutive day of gains it is presently less than 10% from its peak and more than 40% higher than when it was at its lowest amabis 5 this morning the chipmaker began its 3-day AI Summit the stock was once again classified as overweight by Morgan Stanley guy if you put that one up I believe it was a super micro move but we discussed this before Carter may have mentioned it last week Nvidia you're in this pennant shape which will eventually break even though it appears to be breaking to the upside today I still believe this pennant to be intact I believe the stock closed over 140 on June 20th and reversed which is the level that tin kind of hinted to it's intriguing that it hasn't been brought up yet in what direction does it break then out of this pennant will it break to the upside or the bottom the action today points to the upside but we'll see it hasn't arrived yet additionally I believe there are two stocks in Nvidia versus Apple comparison where I would stick with Carter and I don't think Apple has very high expectations we are aware that Nvidia is excellent we've now had to deal with a few production related problems the corporation has returned and essentially assured us that demand will be exceptionally robust in the fourth quarter I then returned to the stock and discussed some of the market factors that have contributed to nvidia's Superior performance aside from those that are clearly unique Nvidia the macro appears to support Nvidia I believe the market is less concerned about that multiple here and it supports the names where you have growth oh you're in the investment business what do you think about Nvidia is a question that everyone you meet asks you additionally some individuals are unaware of what Nvidia is do you not think that has somewhat subsided yes but that's a good thing the market is healthier as a result we heard it from the person cutting our hair so it's as as if we should all own GameStop not in my opinion thus the dynamic Remains the Same you need a more comprehensive plan and the specialist purchasing these stocks I mean we are familiar with the businesses we are purchasing there are other purchases in addition to the SNP index which is also Rising although I'm not saying that Nvidia earnings watch parties will no longer take place they will definitely happen it does seem that some of the excitement surrounding them has subsided which is a good thing you may argue that that's good after all apart from the medicaps cerebrus a chipmaker has filed for an initial public offering IPO they might challenge Nvidia Sam Alman coou altimeter and Benchmark are among the backers of the company which was valued at $4 billion in the most recent fundraising round they intend to list on the NASDAQ I'm not sure according to baet today if you want to think that the most owned seis are still comparatively underweight Steve
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