저자: TomLee/자막내JosephMoore인터뷰포함,주출연자미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가 반등 배경과 Blackwell 마진 논쟁을 다룸. 애플·엔비디아 등 대형 우량주 선호를 말하는 한편, 금리 인하 기대 속 중소형주(러셀2000 계열)가 향후 12개월 강세를 보일 수 있다고 주장. Morgan Stanley 애널리스트는 엔비디아 실적 자체는 양호하며 주가는 적정하고 성장 전망이 좋다고 평가. AI 투자 수익성(Sequoia 우려)과 전력 소비 문제도 언급.
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Nvidia made a significant Resurgence Apple which is currently in my opinion unquestionably leading the market cap battle did in fact continue to show off their strength then although today is an exception we've seen tiny caps strouble more than some may have anticipated in this market which has greater sway both are significant and they represent various investor perspectives you still desire to own the greatest businesses and the most significant themes in my opinion Apple Nvidia after all will put in a lot of effort during any cycle there are significant Tailwinds for cyclical equities and small caps in particular when the market starts to think the FED will push rates back toward neutral which includes cost of money mortgage and auto loan rates therefore I believe that this is the reason I would still like to place a highly informed wagger that tiny caps have a strong chance of Performing exceptionally well over the course of the next 12 months and possibly even until the end of the year it has been a long time since we discussed your granny shots please remind us of your reasoning for liking some of these stocks our first granny shop model examined AI cyber security energy security and you know Millennials is a generation granny shots is based on the notion that there are themes like multi- secular drivers of an economy the granny shots and companies like Nvidia and apple truly started because we want to buy the greatest stocks in those themes since 2019 viia has been listed there therefore I believe that it's always crucial for investors to locate the finest firms and hang on to them for the duration of the cycle rather than trading the top names allock nice reminder I'd appreciate you being here Tom Le thank you despite a difficult period following the release of its data in mid August nvidia's stock is up around 15% this week Joseph Moore a senior semiconductor Analyst at Morgan Stanley is here with us now to discuss the firm and the industry I would also like to know what happened this week Joseph what is driving the Stock's momentum in either direction yes I believe that what transpired during the last few weeks surprised me more than anything else the quarter was excellent you know before Nvidia started doing it a year and a half ago they were ahead by $2 billion although I am aware that they are struggling with expectations and raised some concerns about the gross margin I was taken AB back by the selloff this is our first choice there is a lot of Demand right now therefore it's crucial to concentrate on these kinds of product cycles and similar things we want to see the corporation follow through on that but Jensen told us at a conference this week that the main concern is just the company's strength many important Executives on the customer side have told us how dedicated they are to these workloads thus this is still in my opinion a really interesting story I'm not sure why it was down so much last week and I'm not sure why it went up this week so I was a little confused however the stock is fairly priced and has excellent future development prospects will Hopper's gross margins be higher than Blackwells perhaps a little I believe I believe that at one time when the product was introduced in March they talked about some price points on CNC which is a little out of the ordinary their main concern in my opinion is can we continue to deliver value can we keep expanding the market furthermore I believe that they are likely more concerned with that than the finer points of gross margin in the upcoming quarters which is essentially only the beginning of that there will be some pressure here there will be low yields at first but we're scaling it up I believe they have stated that the gross margins will remain comparable during the entire life cycle however they are also broadening their product line they will be selling an ND link switch and a CPU with Grace with these racks many of the products they offer may have slightly lower gross margins so next year's gross margins will be reduced by roughly a percent considering the strong operating margins and the amount of operating leverage I don't think it's a huge concern however it is little lower thus I believe the answer to your question is yes however that doesn't alter the fact that the gross margins remain high naturally Larry Ellison's remark on that Oracle conference call and everything that emerged from the Oracle data as well as Jensen Wong's remarks at Goldman and the Oracle exclusive interview outside of the White House doors led to this return to AI Microsoft also gave presentations at communic copia and Goldman Sachs focusing heavily on artificial intelligence and all of its opportunities so do you consider yourself more of a Believer you have been doubtful no I have never doubted today's ability to revolutionize the world what it will mean for society as a whole is what I have been and still am worried about I have enough doubts about what will ultimately transpire there Divergent opinions are still present one is more held by the Sequoia Camp which we all began discussing earlier this summer with sequoia's initial report in that report sequa asked questions about the return on Capital from all these large Investments whether or not it would eventually find its way into Apps and how this would all work out from a value proposition however I'm not skeptical about whether or not this will change everything you're not Jim good as you are aware that I haven't been Jensen says things like this has been alcohol for like 18 months and it's supposed to cure cancer and it's entertaining I mean does it cure cancer I ask myself and then you say that's not the point pausing for a moment the goal is to obtain data instantaneously that would otherwise take years to compile that's nice recent instances where doctors were still able to identify cases of breast cancer more accurately than AI at the time raised out without a question however the situation is current as he told me he has no concerns about nvidia's performance his only concern is the amount of money that will be spent Ellison from Oracle now declares that the expense will be incalculable due to the need to stay up with neural networks the expenditure never stops it's similar to what they construct that is one of the main questions Sequoia at least has accepted the notion that there will come a day when it will be essentially finished the cost of gpus will be reduced all the data will be processed generative models and huge language models will be partially but substantially complete and you will go to the next stage however value won't always be generated by the people operating the models isn't that correct however I do believe that one of the things such as what Tesla is discussing I mean what Tesla is discussing is how to create truly autonomous vehicles and robots some of the applications are similar to the chemistry course you took which I was able to drop because I knew it would negatively impact my transcript I realized that this was about attempting to accomplish fundamental Ravid and applied Jensen is handling the fundamentals while Elon is doing the applied which which is extensive and by chips too which leads us to yesterday's White House appearance when Jensen Wong discussed Ai and the national rollup our Megan cassella caught him up on the extent of the public private relationship with the government listen to it if you missed it we've got to make sure that everybody understands the needs coming the opportunities of it the challenges of it and do it in the most efficient and scalable way we can of course do you believe that the federal government should play a part in this Case by combining private and federal investment well given the extremely rapid growth rate public private cooperation most likely going to be required in this field even while teaching artificial intelligence requires a lot of energy using the model is ultimately more important than training it therefore it saves a lot of energy when it is used covered a large area yes you see that's quite fascinating using and training that's just so crucial you know they have more inference than training although I believe Lisa Sue at AMD is the best the fact that you have this enormous list of embedded items is what counts there are seven chips on a Blackwell when you acquire Nvidia chip we must truly understand that it is a supercomputer weighing 8 lb people simply say oh it's put them all together and you get and that's what you get so we need to stop calling in a chip and of course returning to Ellis remarks we also discuss them on a daily basis power power usage
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