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hello and welcome to pro trader strategies market commentary for Friday November the 15th I'm Eric Wilkinson and you very well may recognize me as the wolf man from mainstream media I'm here not only to talk about the economics of our global economies and the markets but more importantly I'm here to talk about options and how to implement those options into your portfolio that being the key implementation it's not just knowing how to build a strategy and having a directional assumption it's how you build those strategies and then therefore implement those into your portfolio and hopefully I do a good job of that in these daily market commentaries but more importantly in my webinars that I do so make sure you check those out as well if you think I'm breezing over some of the aspects of that anyway please remember past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results let's get on with the economic data to give us a picture of our outlook and what it's shaping up to be we got European CPI coming in line with expectations at 0.7 percent final core CPI which is going to strip out food energy alcohol and tobacco comes in at 1.1 percent in line with expectations they're pretty vanilla actually here we got retail sales core retail sales coming in at 0.2 percent expected to be 0.3% so less than expected there remember core retail sales is stripping out automobiles that's because those can be a little bit more volatile but when you throw those cars in there we got a better than expected reading at 0.3% expected to be 0.1% Empire State manufacturing wet blanket on the market actually 2.9 percent expected to be 6.1 percent we also got capacity utilization seventy six point seven was the lowest reading since I believe October of 2018 oh no that's not right importer prices came in at negative point five percent expected to be negative point two percent but the one that I'm looking for is capacity zatia and capacity utilization did come in the lowest reading since October of 2000 sorry 17 and then industrial production also not looking very good coming in and negative point-eight percent to almost twice what was expected at negative 0.4 percent and that is one of the lowest readings we've seen since September of 2017 so those economic data points not looking so great for here in the United States we also got let me see we got business inventories which is kind of a tough one to really look through but business inventories was unchanged expected to be a positive point one percent they did revise last month's number down slightly to negative 0.1 percent so businesses are moving inventories the reason why I say that one's a little bit difficult to read is because you know we saw with the capacity utilization industrial production being pulled back right they're not producing as much they are moving those inventories though but they're not building on those inventories is what it's looking like so that's why we want to look at the industrial production and capacity utilization more so than we look at business inventories it's good to see those businesses are moving those inventories but they are not producing as much which was showing up earlier alright let's move on to the markets we've got crude oil up a dollar now testing that 7r 58 dollars a barrel mark again today which is a bit bizarre because we're seeing the pull back in the manufacturing sector we saw that build in crude oil yesterday and we're seeing the markets move higher that's why sometimes these futures markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent they do things like this which just don't make any sense to me supply and demand showing that this market has a high supply low demand that should cause this market to come off a little bit basic economics 101 right we're not seeing that today though crude oil moving higher and testing some resistance areas that we've been talking about with this 58 59 and then 60 so there's a couple right in a row that should as a major overhead resistance area all right we've got gold futures coming off something I need to talk about also is my GLD trade that I took off I talked about taking men off yesterday looks like I picked the right time I actually was going to sell some calls in that because yesterday after I covered those puts I was looking to sell some calls in there because of great strike location volatility was starting to creep up a little bit I didn't want to do that because I wanted to use that as a example in my webinar that was on the short call strike location volatility all of those things talking about implementation around that strategy so I waited till today and we'll talk about that a little bit later on the gold coming off not looking like it's going to be able to get back up to 1500 mark anytime soon with the market action today which is a bit odd also because we're seeing weakness in the dollar again today and we would expect some flight to safety there but because the equities are driving higher they're really seeing some weakness there in the gold all right you've got bonds coming off by 13 ticks here today it's pretty much an inside day I wouldn't say that this is really creating a topping area for the bond but you know something we do have to keep an eye on here with the bonds is it is in a bearish trend and if I just draw up a couple of lines here you know you can do it pretty sloppy that's a bearish trend channel they're not really being able to reach up to that 160 handle which I was kind of expecting us that retest but it is looking like it's coming up a little bit shy of that today anyway it looks like that's not going to be a target today VIX coming off we lost those 13 handles because this is what I'm talking about with the equities Dow Jones up 146 points just a few ticks away from the all-time highs as you can see there we have printed all-time highs today with the 27 954 their Nasdaq printed at all-time high again today is well this is up 43 points on the day slightly off the highs of the day but that was printed during the day session it was a little bit iffy because overnight we did see some new all-time highs and I always talked about this the day session really wants to print those during the day we got that top printed so it is a real number here we can see it at 31 15.5 the overnight was a little bit lower than that but we did come back for that trade you can see overnight well here was the overnight trade on the high and that high was 311 sorry the high here the high here in was yeah 3m 31 11.5 you can see during the day we kind of open up just shy of that tried to print it and came up a quarter tick shy of it and then the market slammed down on that economic data but we've seen that rebound happen and print the all-time high today now a settlement down in and around the open or a red candle there on equities is not going to look very good if we start losing momentum that's going to look like a pretty choppy pattern but you know I've talked about in the past here recently that you know we've got a pretty steep vertical happening here in equities tight range bound and you know it feels like we're gonna pop one way or the other it looks like right now the market wants to pop to the upside I'm a little bit worried we're gonna see a late day weakness as people really start to absorb some of this economic data points that we're seeing there and you can see we're seeing a little bit of weakness today but you know the day is not done alright let's talk about this gold trade that I did I only put it on a couple of days ago if you remember I put it on on the 12th which is right here I felt like it found a bottom we got a bit of a rally I got the directional move right and I had sold those gold in the deist and sold the 132 puts in there for 39 cents we saw the volatility start to slowly come out of that I was able to buy those back late in the day yesterday for 50 since now today I came in to the market and did the decent sold the 144 calls in there for 44 cents now the reason why I did that is we had pretty decent volatility coming into the day which is why I got into that trade you can see volatility is starting to come out a little bit but that 144 gets me above this extension that I have left in there for quite some time because it did act as a nice line in the sand for support and resistance but I think that the market just seems like it is a little bit tired you know I was expecting more of a stronger recovery after the big sell-off and everything else but yesterday volatility starting to come out is when I pulled the trigger on getting out of my puts and decided to flip that because I could get good strike location up above this vivace and if the market did rally back to the 115 or the the 1500 Ettore Islands area which lines up with 142 here I was still going to be able to get that theta decay and maybe some volatility contraction a little bit more now we're seeing gold lose about six percentage points on volatility and I was able to get in there just slightly shy of my mandate mona my rules for this for the ETF is below or above fit sorry bub 34 an ETF and it was just slightly shy of that it was right around 29 ish so I decided to go ahead and get into there with some premium selling strategy so got into those DS 144 calls for 44 cents alright that's it that's all I've done I didn't play Nvidia to be quite Franco's I was getting ready for the webinar yesterday and I totally slipped on an Ernie clause gonna play this to the upside and overnight it actually looked like it was I was kicking myself but this morning it's not looking too bad you can see overnight after they released those earnings they spiked and made a new all-time high in the overnight session so again that's not going to be really looked at but one of the things that is worried about is nvidia and the gaming aspect people buying pcs to do these gaming i can tell you that the kids love the pc for these gaming's and i don't think that the esports is really going to go away but it's hard to tell Gen X's and the baby boomers that that is a real thing that kids are probably watching these online athletes these eSport athletes more so than they're watching football that we normally are accustomed to the legacy type sports that were used to and they're also in a bunch of AI and other things of that nature so Nvidia I think is a good move to the upside and probably if you're looking to add something to your portfolio in the tech sector I think that this would be something good to add there but that's just my point on that one I haven't done anything in Nvidia yet so that's about all I got for you guys I hope you guys all have a great weekend check out that video on the short call I go into all the rules also there's a nice little deal in there for the rest of the earnings also earning setups for the next round that you can take advantage of as well so that's about it if you can't take that take it easy
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