저자: MarkYusko/CathieWood인용—영상내발언중심 · 외국인
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비트코인 강세론 영상. 결론: 비트코인은 금 시가총액 수준(약 12조 달러)을 목표로 하며, 1BTC당 약 30만 달러 가능. 핵심 근거: 2023년 3월 지역은행 위기 때 비트코인이 1.9만→3만 달러로 상승, 안전자산(보험) 역할 부각. 가격 산출: 금 시총 약 12조 달러 중 절반(귀금속 투자 수요)을 통화성 자산으로 보면 약 6조 달러, 현재가 3만 달러 기준 약 10배 = 약 30만 달러. 영상 내 Kathy Wood는 60만 달러 안팎 언급. 4년 주기론: 반감기(2024년 예정)에 따라 현재 '크립토 썸머' 구간이며, Metcalfe's law 모델상 적정가 5.5만 달러로 제시. 현재 가격은 적정가 아래라 매수 구간으로 봄. 현물 ETF: 블랙록 ETF 승인 확실시, 수요 증가 예상. 공급은 2,100만 개로 한정, 기관 유입 1,000~2,000억 달러 시 가격 상승 전망. 리스크: 레버리지 과열 시 급락 반복 가능성(2017, 2021 사례), 규제 당국 감시 언급. 출연자는 금융 시스템 신뢰 붕괴(이전 화폐 775개 중 3/4 소멸) 및 중앙은행 대안 논리 강조. 출연자 전망: 장기 강세, 2024년 반감기 전후 상승 기대.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood from arkhanvest Recently did an interview where she predicted these prices for Bitcoin base and base is 600 and I think it's 625 000 something like that yeah one reason we've actually internally our confidence has increased towards the bull case is because of what happened during the Regional Bank crisis in March what happened Bitcoin so as Regional banks are going bankrupt and and the stocks are imploding across the board for the kre uh Bitcoin rallied from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand why did that happen that was a flight to safety that is the insurance policy that we are talking about that we believe everyone will want at the end of the day insurance policy against two things uh confiscation of wealth either directly uh or by inflation or on in the deflation world what is the what is it a hedge against right it's a head against counterpart party risk we won't do we won't have an 0809 with Bitcoin everything is decentralized and transparent no obfuscation now in this video Mark yusco explains why he agrees with Kathy and his explanation will blow your mind so check this out the math of of Bitcoin is pretty easy right we're we're we take the total market cap that we think is achievable we divide by the number of coins that are still in circulation and you get you get a number and and everybody fixates on that number but I always think it's it's the wrong number right because it's it's in our currency so you and I both know one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin it has been the entire time that's what we're trying to move toward is a world where where Bitcoin is is the unit of measure what we're talking about here is dollars per Bitcoin and that price that everybody fixates on isn't so much Bitcoin getting better it's actually our money at the dollar getting worse it's you know like trying to buy a cup of coffee that you know used to be a quarter now is five dollars or six dollars that's it's the same cup of coffee it does the same thing it delivers the same amount of caffeine um unless you put whatever Kathy's putting in hers uh and um you know it's so anyway the math of of just pick a number 500K 600k let's do that math together where where does that even come from well if you if you have a base case that the market cap of Bitcoin should roughly equal Gold's market cap okay a reasonable assumption if we say that Bitcoin is digital gold and it plays the role of Base money right money as we know it is really a small thing it's it's gold and what do you what Mark what do you mean I use cash no that's that's debt that's a currency but it's not money money is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability the only thing in the world that does that for five thousand years is is gold not people who you know dabbled with other stuff but but ultimately all the other stuff that we think of is money is backed by debt it's currency and that's why it ultimately devalues and ultimately inflates away and why in the history of the world there have been 775 paper currencies three quarters of them no longer exist I mean they literally went away and the same is happening in real time to the dollar which is why Larry Fink Larry Fink like not exactly you know Joe from some you know uh Twitter handle we're talking one of the most powerful people in the world manages you know he's in charge of a company that manages close to 10 trillion with a t dollars said that you should put some money in Bitcoin in my ETF of course will protect you from devaluation of the currency let's just let's let's let's round let's round gold to to 12 because it probably is and and you're 20x is right yes but but here's the thing half of that gold isn't money it's jewelry and chalices and you know gold leaf and and stuff that that isn't really used as a monetary base so that half is Six Trillion that's a 10x from here current price of 30 10x is 300K okay 300K to me is is so easy we don't even have to debate because the idea of of Bitcoin being better than gold as a store of value as a unit of account as more portable like I say all the time if I if I had a bar of gold which maybe at my other house I do but but you know if I had a bar gold and I wanted to break it in half and send you half I'm not strong enough to break the bar of gold first of all second I couldn't stuff it in the computer to send to you I want to send you some Bitcoin you know I punch a couple buttons and and you got Bitcoin we're done so that's a superior store value and medium exchange so I believe Bitcoin gold equivalents is a no-brainer now when tomorrow next day I don't really care sometime in the future I actually agree with what she's saying in the sense that um we have for 800 years ish uh been ruled by this system and I and I used to tell the story Scott it's funny I just got back from uh a vacation I took a long vacation for the first time in a long time and it was awesome we went to Spain and Portugal and for years I talked about I think even with you on the show I've talked about you know medicis 800 plus years ago invented fraction Reserve banking and they borrowed AKA stole as Picasso said good artist borrow great artist steal they stole from some monks this idea now I didn't know until a couple weeks ago when I was in Portugal that those monks were the Knights Templar that these Portuguese monks the order of Christ the nice Templar you know the the cross that here's the crazy things God once you hear this story everywhere you look every monument every little sidewalk little inscript every you know every Portuguese flag every everything like every football coat of arms like Barcelona's coat of arms has the order of Christ right there so nice Templar everyone but but this this fraction is our banking system it's not the devil that everybody thinks it is it's just fragile and it's subject to abuse and I've used the example all the time in the old days I lent you money I wrote down in my ledger I kept The Ledger because I was the rich guy you you needed the money and I wrote down you owe me a hundred bucks you come back you pay me 100 bucks I've tampered with my ledger you show up with your 110 to pay me back and I'm like oh but Scott it says right here you owe me 200 and you had no recourse because there was no other ledger so the medicis borrowing the Knights Templar uh said okay Scott you keep The Ledger Mark you keep Ledger and we the benevolent medicis for a small fee will arbitrate the ledgers match but here's the thing they're corruptable and I'm a corrupt guy so I go to the knights I mean I go to the medicis and I say you know what Scott owes me 100 but I'm Gonna Change it to 200 and I'll give you half they're like done so you come back to pay me a hundred and the book says 200 and you're like hey guys Scott you must have written it down wrong I'm sorry and so you have to pay 200 and so for years the system has been corrupted and we've seen lots of examples from the spoofing and the fines my favorite stat on that is the fines paid by the global Banks the fights not not the malfeasance not the money laundering not the the fines that they've admitted to and paid equals the market cap of vehicle yeah I mean that's an amazing stat and that's a little outdated because I think it's only 500 billion an hour up to 700 billion but still 500 billion dollars is a lot of money to pay for malfeasance and so now we have this triple entry accounting system and that Kathy discusses this decentralized system where we don't have to rely on the medicis or the Morgans or the Rothschilds or anybody else it's just you and me and this Global decentralized Network that is immutable and permanent that we don't have to debate and we don't need anybody else like if I want to send you money right now you have to have a bank account I have to have a bank account we pay a fee wire transfer fee or whatever and but that's Antiquated technology we all know that having is happening in 2024 so what will happen to bitcoin prices until then the point was there's a four-year cycle and there's gonna be a four-year cycle because it's coded into Bitcoin every four years the block rewards get cut in half and therefore one of two things has to happen either a large number of the miners have to go bankrupt because their costs are basically fixed or the price has to rise and that's a pretty cool thing because what happens is as the price Rises it attracts attention right movement attracts attention right and like if if someone like if my son or daughter were to you know move across the the frame in the back I I would look because that's what you know we Hunters do and we follow movement and so what happens every four years is we have these these seasons and today we're in crypto summer well what is crypto summer summer is the period leading up to the having the year before the having and what does that mean well that means we drift From Below fair value okay now why are we below Fair Hat well because we had winter two seasons ago that pushes the price down or why does winter happen well because people freak out because of the parabolic top in the previous fall and then we go through spring which is kind of the bottoming process that that ended I think from June to June and now we're back in summer well if the the metcalf's law model that Tim Peterson that I use says fair value is 55k investors people who buy things below fair value that's what an investor is supposed to do would be accumulating Bitcoin here right if the price is 30 and the fair value is 55 you would be a buyer so as that happens it it slowly accrets toward fair value when the having occurs suddenly the price has to rise a little faster well now that draws in speculators but what are speculators speculators are people that don't care about the fair value I don't care about the price they just want to make money so they're drawn to the movement well so in the fall of the cycle okay the year following the having what you get is increasing velocity and increasing interest the media comes in you got lots of Click bait and suddenly it starts to go Parabola well here's what happened toward the end of that cycle that that fall period you get the Leverage and The Leverage is what call causes the parabola and that's true of every look what's happening in stocks right now why are stocks going like this why is NVIDIA going like this leverage and short selling and short recovering that that's what it is when we hit 60 the model said fair value was 20.
it had been up to 30 and it had fallen to 20 because remember transaction volume fell and everybody was afraid yeah and so and so we got to 3x because of the crazy binance 100 times leverage and all the stupid stuff and and that's fine in the previous cycle in in um 2017 we got to two times for fair value was ten we got to 20.
okay that's fine so this time fair value will accrete according to the model if if things stay the way they are fair value will create to around 100k buy the having also everyone is talking about the Bitcoin spot ETFs Mark says this one will be approved the BlackRock ETF is approved the BlackRock ETF will be approved there's no question in my mind that will be approved now I said well but if the other ones are ahead of them I don't care they will not be approved the BlackRock will be approved after that maybe someone else would get approved just so they can kind of cover their tracks but BlackRock is going to get approved so that's going to cause increasing demand there is a finite Supply so there's the first finite Supply meaning there's only going to ever be 21 million and there won't even be 21 million because there's been some that's lost or stolen you got the Satoshi wallet it's never going to move you got all kinds of stuff so that and the incremental change in in Bitcoins estimates is about 10 11 of of the coins if hundreds of billions which I I think is a reasonable estimate comes into the market okay and we're talking let's say 200 billion comes in and there's only 60 billion of available supply for sale price will rise that that's just supply and demand right you shift this you shift the demand curve the price will rise that will cause more people to come in that will cause some leverage but I think this time the leverage won't be as great because the scrutiny of The Regulators that's all for now please leave a like and your thoughts below but you may also want to watch this video next where Gareth says what the following targets are for Bitcoin according to the charts
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