저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 향후 5~20년간 14개 기술이 결합된 파괴적 혁신이 전통 지수 투자의 상대적 매력을 떨어뜨린다고 주장하며, 장기적으로 고확신 종목 집중 전략을 강조한다. 과거 대비 현황: ARK 펀드는 2020년 저점 대비 360% 상승 후 2021년 2월 고점에서 75% 하락했으나, 우드는 변동성 속에서도 장기 관점을 유지하며 종목 수를 33개에서 58개로 늘렸다고 설명한다. 연준 및 금리: 우드는 연준이 금리를 0.25%에서 3.25%로 13배 인상했고 11월 2일 4%까지 올릴 것으로 보며, 파월 의장의 고집이 과도한 긴축을 낳았다고 비판한다. 추가로 75bp 인상이 임박했다고 본다. 금리·환율 전망: 중앙은행(영국, 일본, 중국)의 자국통화 방어를 위한 달러 매도 개입으로 달러 유동성이 일부 풀릴 수 있으며, 11월 G20에서 플라자·루브르형 합의 가능성이 높다고 본다. 달러 강세는 디플레이션 효과와 함께 미국 수출 경쟁력 약화라는 부작용을 낳는다. 경기 전망: 우드는 미국이 이미 경기침체 국면에 있다고 보며, 재고 누적(나이키 북미 재고 68% 증가 등)으로 수입이 급감하는 현상을 근거로 든다. 비트코인 및 시장: 비트코인(약 2만 달러)은 ARK 전략과 함께 5월 이후 신저점을 갱신하지 않고 박스권을 형성해 상대적 강세를 보인다고 평가하며, 저점 형성 가능성을 언급한다. 다만 연준 리스크로 추가 변동성이 있을 수 있다고 본다. 메타버스·AI: 메타버스 대중화는 기대보다 느리며, 페이스북(메타)의 메타버스 전략은 단기~중기에 어려움이 클 것으로 보나, NFT와 AI의 결합은 유망하다고 평가한다. 기술주 및 지수: 페이스북·애플·아마존 등 FAANG 계열이 디스럽션(틱톡 등)으로 흔들리고 있어 기존 대형주 지수 투자는 장기적으로 매력이 낮다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망 요약: 우드는 파괴적 혁신 사이클을 장기 기회로 보며, 단기 약세장에서도 고확신 성장주 집중을 유지하는 전략을 취하고 있다.
다듬은 글
raised interest rates 13-fold from 0.25 on the FED funds rate to 30 to 3.25 and they're going to go to four We Believe on November 2nd that's a 16-fold hello everyone and welcome to the Daily crypto we are back with another informational video for you guys to enjoy and this time we are joined by Kathy Wood who is the CEO and founder of art Capital Management but before we can hear what she has to say let's take a look at the fear and greed index for today as of recording this video it is sitting at 30 instead of yesterday's 32.
currently Bitcoin and ethereum are trading for twenty thousand two hundred and one thousand five hundred and three respectively with that being said let's continue with the interview but if we're right and this is why I found it art and we're going to see more disruptive I mean truly transformative Innovation over the next five to twenty years than we have ever seen I mean it it dwarfs even telephone electricity automobile those were three platforms at the same time we have five Brewing now and they involve 14 different Technologies all of which are are growing exponentially so if we're right then the traditional World Order will be disrupted and those indexes are not going to be a good place to invest now what I'm fighting here is history because as that 20-year phenomenon took place it became a self-fulfilling prophecy the more people investing in indexes the better those indexes did right so we've had our first breakthrough though with the fangs they're breaking down and those were the biggest companies in uh most large cap benchmarks they're breaking down because of disruption Tick Tock is wreaking havoc and so that's the first case in point watch out Kathy has a more long-term outlook on investing as she believes we will see new technologies disrupt the traditional system which is why investing in Old indexes is not a good long-term Play She says we will see a massive shift within the next five to twenty years and it's better to be prepared beforehand because it will be huge and will catch many companies off guard when we think about the metaverse what what's the first metaverse experience I've had with zoom except it's with our real faces and not avatars some people enjoy not seeing other people and living in that world I don't think it's going to be as mass-market as any of their current products I think it'll be interesting to see how they weave you know nfts into the ecosystem Yasin and I were speaking on the way over about artificial intelligence and how you know in the with the Creator Community I mean AI is going to do some mind-blowing things and nfts and and AI could be a beautiful match Facebook's advanced in artificial intelligence and what I but but when you say hail Mary I would say this is going to take years for them I don't think I think as the negative Network effects associated with Facebook evolve that it will be very difficult for them to make that up with a metaverse since Facebook rebranded itself as meta it has been working hard to get into the metaverse ecosystem and be the first mover however kathywood believes the metaverse will not be that bit of a deal or at least in the near to midterm she does mention that it will be interesting to see nfts and artificial intelligence combine and be integrated into the metaverse because for sure there will be many viable use cases concentrate into our highest conviction stocks now if you only have two assets you and Bitcoin I guess that's a little bit more difficult to do but we started out last February February 21 we had been up 360 percent from the bottom of the Coronavirus to the peak in in our peak in February of 21 and and um and during that time we expanded the number of stocks in our portfolio because we had been highly concentrated at the bottom in covid towards our highest conviction names and so we went from roughly 33 names to 58 names you know there were IPOs there were lots of exciting opportunities and then starting February of 21 to our low in May and we think that's the low but we're getting close there again you never know the the FED I I do believe is a big Menace here um we were down 75 percent think about that up 360 down 75 percent Kathy reveals that the ETF of her Capital management company was up 360 from the coveted lows only for it to be down by 75 yet it doesn't worry her because she has a very long-term approach when it comes to investing instead she increased her exposure to more stocks and reduced her risk significantly by diversifying well um we just published an open letter to the FED today okay and basically said wait a minute how can you be unanimous in your decision making you fed board members unanimous at the last few votes when there's so much conflicting evidence out there and so you know yes we feel as though the FED is making a mistake here and that yes High beta stocks which would be our kinds of stocks more volatile than the market do get hit disproportionately but something's happening now and it's happening with Bitcoin as well which I find very interesting so our strategy bottomed in trade the flagship on May 12th and um and the s p and NASDAQ have broken below their lows last week they broke below their last lows we did not now maybe I'm jinxing myself and we will now but um our strategy has held up better since May and same with Bitcoin same with Bitcoin after the the the volatility in May um it's it's held in much better it hasn't hit new lows successive new lows it's in a Range much like our strategy is it seems as if the FED is almost destroying the economy on purpose by raising rates this fast and Kathy acknowledges it too by saying that they are making a mistake but it noteworthy that her company's stock and Bitcoin haven't created new lows despite the uncertainty in the markets which is a really good sign during a bear market and towards the end of a bear Market our strategy starts outperforming why there's a saying in our business that the new leadership shows itself toward the end of a bear Market it starts out performing so at the end of 0809 for example um I I was at a different firm but our Flagship strategy bottomed in relative terms uh uh November 24th I remember it well and um yet the market didn't bottom until May of 09 I mean March of 09 and in the first quarter the market as measured by the s p was down 10 we were flat so and then we came out flying and I'd like to think that's what's going to happen the problem is the Fed here and in the piece we wrote today we said please consider the conflicting evidence and at least debate you know it's talk about the risk of centralization this is a massive risk because it's not just the FED uh it's it's not the FED board members it's probably one member and that's Powell who's insisting on unanimity in their fight against inflation so what they're doing what they've just done is raised interest rates 13 fold from 0.25 on the FED funds rate to 30 to 3.25 and they're going to go to four We Believe on November 2nd that's a 16-fold increase in interest rates Kathy believes that the FED isn't really making these decisions unanimously and it's just the stubbornness of Jerome Powell against his fight on inflation his egotistical approach has resulted in interest rates being hiked by 13 to 16 times in a very short period of time due to which the markets have been crushed we still haven't fully felt the affects of the recent rate hike and Kathy expects the FED to hike rates by another 75 basis points very soon what what are these Pension funds selling so that they can be made a little more right you know instead of upside down uh they're selling the easiest uh financial instruments to sell treasury Securities government bonds so that's one of the reasons we're seeing our gov government bonds back up uh and you know so so we've got the Boe reversing you've got the bank of Japan and uh the Chinese Central Bank pboc both of them are supporting their currencies what does that mean it means they're selling dollars and buying their currencies so it's freeing up some dollar liquidity and there is a dearth of dollar liquidity out there so I think we're going to see many other central banks doing that but I also think when the ministers meet the G20 in November that the the odds of another Plaza or Louvre Accord type agreement are going to be pretty high because I think that that we're seeing deflation in a lot of indicators now commodity prices we're seeing inventories overwhelming retailers so I think we're going to see a lot of deflation and for cyclical reasons and then uh secular reasons as well Innovation is deflationary but good deflation it causes bad deflation for from for companies that are going to be disintermediated or disrupted or destroyed we are already seeing many central banks selling their bonds to support their native currency the bank of England Japan and China are just some of the few doing this as they are selling dollars and buying back their currency to strengthen it this does have an upside to it because it will free up a lot of the dollar liquidity as the Global Financial system is running low on U.S dollar liquidity that's a domestic consideration it's uh right and most Commodities are priced in dollars and so forth the negative is we're going to lose our competitiveness and so we're already seeing trade drop off quite significantly and I think that's going to be I we believe we're in a recession and And Trades part of the reason now interestingly in the third quarter if we see a positive GDP it will be because trade is collapsing meaning Imports falling much faster than exports and so that helps our GDP in a strange way and the reason it's happening is we have an inventory glut so companies are you know if you look at Nike's report a couple of weeks ago Global sales up three and a half percent something like that their inventories globally up 44 their inventories in North America up 68 and their inventories in transit probably mostly from China up 85 percent so you know it's there's that it's overwhelming what's going on and so we're trying to cut back on Imports that's going to back up into these other countries as well so we think our recession I think we think the globe is in a recession and the dollar is exacerbating since the dollar has been increasing in strength recently it has brought upon several benefits like deflation but there is a downside too one of the major ones is that the dollar will lose its competitiveness against other currencies thank you for watching this video see you guys in the next one thank you
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