Fisher Investments' Ken Fisher Discusses How Stocks Would React to a Recession

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한 줄 결론: 주식은 현재 기대와 미래의 차이에 따라 움직이며, 대다수가 침체를 예상하는 지금은 경기침체가 기대보다 덜 나빠도 주가에 긍정적이다. 시장 기대: 2022년 2분기 이후 1년 넘게 경기침체 전망이 가장 널리 퍼진 상태이며, 심리는 비관적이다. 3월 은행 사태 이후에도 이 기대는 강하게 유지되고 있다. 주가 원리: 주식은 오늘의 기대와 실제 미래의 차이에 반응한다. 미래가 기대보다 좋으면 상승, 나쁘면 하락한다. 시나리오 비교: 연착륙(침체 없음)이나 완만한 성장이 나오면 주식에 더 유리하다. 다만 경기침체가 있더라도 현재 기대보다 덜 심하면 주식에는 긍정적이다. 비관의 불신(pessimism of disbelief): 경제가 강해질수록 사람들은 자신의 비관이 틀렸다는 것을 받아들이기 어려워 비관이 한동안 지속된다. 이는 강세장이 벽을 오르듯 진행되는 원인이 된다. 따라서 경제가 좋아져도 주가 상승폭은 생각보다 제한될 수 있다. 결론: 주식이 오르기 위해 반드시 연착륙이 필요한 것은 아니며, 경기침체가 기대보다 나은 수준이기만 하면 된다. 리스크/조건: 특정 종목·지수 언급 없이 시장 전반 논의. 경기 전망에는 확실성이 없다고 명시. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장 기대 대비 주식에 우호적인 방향이라는 입장.

다듬은 글

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01. so there's always agitation about how's the economy going to do and in reality of course there's no certainties on those things but in the period we're in now there's a lot of talk about with so much anticipation of a recession is it going to be a really bad recession is it going to be a so-called minor recession is it going to be a soft Landing with no recession at all but not robust growth or do we continue growing as we have been in recent quarters now again there's no certainty on any of that it falls my opinion your opinion next person's opinion but some people think you've got to have a soft Landing or you can't have stocks do well let me just put it in a simpler framework for you stocks move off of the difference between today's expectations and whatever it is the future brings so if the future is better than people expect today that'll help talk go up if the future is worse than people expect today it'll make stocks suffer this that isn't very hard to understand so the question is what do they expect now now as I have said and you know I wrote about uh first in my Christmas Day column in the New York Post and then in my uh end of January column in the New York Post uh going back last year 2022 the most widely anticipated recession in modern measured history we've been talking about having a recession ahead since the second quarter of 2022 now over a year and the views of that grew all year long and remained strong now as we've had the so-called March banking crisis now in reality which wasn't really a crisis but that's for another video in reality we don't need a soft Landing we just need the recession to not be terrible because most people expect a recession and they expect bad and sentiment is dour and so if we had a recession that was minor that would still be a positive surprise would a so-called soft Landing meaning no recession at all help stock more sure if there was not a soft Landing but continued moderate growth would that help stocks more sure let me put in an offsetting feature ever I've written a lot about recently and in the long distance past the phrase that I created decades ago called the pessimism of disbelief which parallels the wall of worry that bull markets climbed early on as people can't get over their prior views of what was wrong and as things positively surprise they say yabba yabba yabba yabba now the fact is the stronger the economy is from here the more you're going to see that pessimism of disbelief continuing because it's just a hard pill for people to swallow that they were wrong and these big concerns they have didn't play out fully in the negative ways that they expected what I want you to see from that is that while a soft Landing would be better for stocks than a weak recession which would still be okay for stocks relative to what people currently expect which is a worse service session if we actually had continued growth at some you know three percent GDP level kind of basis stocks would do better but they wouldn't do as much better as you might think because that would be met with more of that pessimism of disbelief which would just it's just like a dam slowly breaking before you get to the point where the pessimist of disbelief goes away so with that I just want you to see sure soft land would be better than recession but the reality is you don't really even need a soft Landing for stocks to go up from here you just need a recession to be better than that which people expect thank you for listening to me I hope this was useful for you foreign