저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 2023년 중간선거 해의 10월~다음해 6월 9개월은 역사적으로 가장 수익이 높은 시기이며, 2023년 4월 현재 중간선거 랠리가 장기 평균 궤적과 거의 일치한다. 중간선거 랠리 개념: 중간선거가 있는 해 10월 1일부터 시작되는 9개월이 주식시장 역사상 가장 수익률이 높은 구간이라고 주장. 평균 연수익 약 20%, 긍정 비율 92%. 메커니즘: 중간선거는 정치적 교착(gridlock)을 만들고, 시장은 선거 전부터 이를 선반영하기 시작한다. 사람들이 이를 믿지 않아 가격에 미리 반영되지 않는 점이 효과를 유지시킨다고 설명. 행동재무학 근거: 미국인은 손실을 이득보다 약 2.5배 크게 싫어하고, 영국 4배, 독일 6배라는 연구를 인용. 정치는 한쪽이 얻으면 다른 쪽이 잃는 구조라 패자가 더 강하게 반발한다고 설명. 입법 패턴: 대형 입법(세금, 재산권, 부의 이전 등)은 대통령 임기 첫 2년에 집중되고, 중간선거 이후 후반기에는 주로 지지층 결집과 선거 자금 모금이 중심이 된다. 현재 데이터: 1925년 이후 중간선거 해 1분기 S&P500 평균 수익률 6.4%. 해당 해 3분기 7.5%, 4분기 6.5%, 평균 7.4%. 2023년 4월 셋째 주 기준 장기 평균 궤적과 거의 일치한다고 진단. 리스크/한계: 모든 분기가 양수는 아니며 간혹 음수 분기가 섞인다고 인정. 완벽하지 않지만 9개월 구간은 압도적이라고 강조. 대통령 3년차: 임기 3년차는 1939년 이후 미국 증시가 하락한 적이 없다고 언급(당시 1939년은 -0.9%). 강세장을 선호하는 이들에게 좋은 시기라는 결론. 출연자 전망: 2023년 하반기 이후 강세 지속을 시사하나 개별 목표가나 특정 종목 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
the middle of last year you know I was raving and ranting as I often rave and rant about the midterm miracle people never believed to midterm miracle the midterm Miracle happens every other two years in America as we have midterm elections it is simply a fact that the nine months that begin October 1st of a midterm election year three quarters to nine months to begin October for midterm election year the most profitable nine months in all of stock market history it's just a simple measurable fact 20 percent average annual returns uh 20 total returns excuse me over that nine months uh and 92 percent positivity that's just blows the lights out of anything else people don't believe that it works it works because it creates midterms create relative or absolute gridlock and the market starts pricing that a little before the elections it works because nobody ever believes that it'll work it works because midterms create relative gridlock or absolute gridlock and people don't really get the benefit of that because what most people think is it's my way of the highway ideologically what I believe is good what you believe that disagrees with that is wrong if we don't get what I want things aren't going to be good if we get what you want oh boy things would be terrible and the fact of the matter is our ideological beliefs in things political are so strong and overwhelming for so much of our society that they can't quite believe the notion that one of us wins one of us loses in that offset if you win and I lose or I win and you lose the one that loses hates it a lot more than the one that wins likes it behavioral Finance learned a long long time ago I think about 35 years ago through work of uh Richard thaler and Selma bernansi that the average American hates loss is two and a half times as much as they like gains mayor statman and I then went back using British and German data and replicated the thaler renazi methodology in those countries found British investors hate losses four times as much as they love games German six times as much the fact of that matter is people hate losses one they like gains some cultures a little more some cultures a little less but in politics we take from you to give to me or take from me to give to you and we do it in public so everybody else says oh my gosh they might come to get me next in an American political history all material big controversial legislation all big tax changes property rights changes they all wealth transfers the big ones the controversial ones all come in the first two years of president's terms because presidents know when they get elected presidents you may love them you may hate them but they know a lot about how to get elected they never get elected president it's not that easy to do they know that their party tends to lose relative power in the midterms there's almost no exceptions to that so therefore they know because they know that that the most onerous legislation they would ever get to they had to get done in the first two years can't get it done later that all that legislation if you remember in 2021 and 2022 we had quite a lot of that things like the infrastructure Bill things like the so-called inflation reduction act on and on and on trillions of dollars that all happens in the first two years president's terms midterms make it go away and then the back half mostly what happens is a lot of talk and baby kissing and that aimed at the the next elections the baby kissing and the talk aimed at fundraising for the next elections the point that I'm wanting you to see is the Metro Miracle Works this time it worked almost picture perfect the average first quarter since 1925 of midterm Miracles is 6.4 percent that's on the S P 500 third quarter of last year the first quarter of the midterm miracle was 7.5 percent second quarter 6.5 percent average 7.4 percent second quarter in reality it's almost picture perfect and as I speak to you today in the third week of April we are right on the exact long-term average of the midterm Miracle going back to 1925.
I just want you to get that this is a pretty good time it's a pretty good time that people never believe and partly because people never believe it it doesn't get uh pre-priced into the market it's it's a surprise that happens every two years is it perfect no is it pretty good yeah is it every single quarter always of those three quarters no sometimes you get a negative quarter in there but the nine month stretch is just overwhelming so thank you for listening to me the midterm Miracle continues uh as we speak uh and actually I'll finish this with a point that I make often which is this is the third year of the president's term and partly because of the midterm Miracle we haven't had a negative third year for president's term since 1939 in the U.S stock market which in 1939 going into World War II was only nine tenths of one percent down uh this is a great time period if you like markets that rise thank you very much for listening to me if you like what you've seen click the Bell to
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