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we believe that tesla's market share we used to say we thought tesla would take 25 of the electric vehicle market in five years now we're saying we believe tesla will take 25 percent of the total vehicle market in five years and we think electric will be nearly half of total vehicles uh sold being here so the stock took a little a little pause today it's probably good for it it's always good to have the stock just chill out a little bit and today so we're going to take a look at kathy wood explaining about the future because personally i don't invest in tesla for the short term i'm investing in the long term and she discusses a lot about what that long term vision of tesla is going to be and so i look at visions like this and i compare her her view and a whole lot of other people's views and then piece it together with my own personal view and that kind of formulates my plan for what i want to do for the future and honestly my plan is just investing the way i do and it bolsters my conviction as to why i want to be a tesla investor long term we have to talk of course about electrical vehicles and uh and and your bet in in that technology vector of course is tesla and um there's a lot of debate about tesla you know have the bar been raised in terms of you know being a car manufacturer certainly a lot of new car manufacturers out there and there's some great numbers from from creative swiss that's since 1950 that hasn't been a us company with a starting point of six billion dollars of revenue that grew for fifty percent annualized for ten years as elon musk says that he believed tesla can do so the question to you is do you really do you think that tesla is this one outlier that will defy all the previous numbers we have on u.s companies in terms of the growth opportunities is it is it that big we do believe it is that big uh so if you look at the revenue growth the last five years it's compounded at roughly 48 per year and that and that was uh as you recall when tesla was experiencing a quite a bit of controversy um our forecast for the next uh the next 10 years is uh in the 50 to 60 range depends if you take our bull or our bear case and there are a few reasons there there are four barriers to entry that uh seem to have gotten higher uh in tesla's favor the first is battery technology so tesla is the only car manufacturer with the exception of just a couple in china the only car manufacturer that decided to ride down the cost curve of the consumer electronics industry using batteries that we find in our laptops our cell phones and when tesla decided to do that auto manufacturers actually laughed at it as did auto analyst because there were well um advertised or publicized uh batteries battery blow-ups on on uh airplanes and so there was a banning of that kind of uh battery so because of that it its costs are so much lower today the cost of its battery or its battery pack system uh is so much lower than other auto manufacturers that if they really want to compete with tesla they're going to have to lose money in electric vehicles while their gas powered vehicle sales are falling now right here is something that we have discussed several times on here and that is the fact that legacy automakers in order to compete in in the ev industry they're going to have to cannibalize themselves they have such a strong foundation with ice vehicles that internal combustion engine that they have to disassemble their entire foundations just to get into the ev market it's not free to get rid of that so it's going to cost them money to get rid of what made them money in the past is going to cost them more money to create what's going to keep them going in the future so their costs over the next 10 years are going to be extremely high just to get themselves into this market not to say they're not going to be able to do it they've got a lot of capital they're smart people they're brilliant companies they're going to get there but in order to do so they've got to take a lot of time a lot of money and a lot of effort to strip away what they have and put a lot of money into r d research and development just to get to where tesla is or even close to where they're at and so that's going to kind of take away all their meat and potatoes just to build up where they're where they need to be to survive uh that the alternative will be less power or less range uh so that we're seeing a lot of permutations around that so battery uh still three to four years ahead in terms of cost declines of other other auto manufacturers who decided to use lithium-ion uh pouch technology as opposed to the cylindrical batteries that tesla uses the second barrier to entry and this is this i think is the critical one from a valuation and a growth point of view tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own chip tesla is taking a leaf from apple's book if you remember in the day apple was the upstart nokia motorola and ericsson were the winners in the cell phone space apple was this upstart that had the point of view steve jobs uh that that this was not just a phone it was going to become a computer in our pockets and he was right and i'll never forget the delight i felt when i was able to access the internet on my phone i just thought this was revolutionary the others didn't follow they didn't have their own chip they didn't have the vision and uh and today even today when apple's market share has gone down to 12 it takes most of the profits out of the global uh out of the global uh smartphone market and this is another comparison that we have made here which is the apple and tesla comparison apple has their own infrastructure within themselves and they have done a lot of things vertically on their own vertically integrated on their own and tesla's doing the same and so if you look at you know the nokias and the ericksons and even like a blackberry as we discussed the other day those companies where are they now they're few and far between they're making some little phones they're definitely a former shell of what they used to be now let's compare that to the eevee industry you've got gm you've got ford you've got volkswagen these companies are now looking dead in the face of a technology that is nothing they are used to and you've got this upstart of tesla coming in here starting to create a whole entire world of technology that these people don't know anything about how are they going to compete with it and they're now so slow to get on board with it just to get caught up they're gonna end like the nokias and blackberries of the past um and then the other two barriers to entry so the the artificial intelligence chip why is that important this is all about autonomous travel and it's the only one doing this and we believe that the other barrier to entry they have is the billions upon billions upon billions of miles of real-world driving data that tesla has accumulated so that with its ai expertise andre carpathi is the expert in autonomous uh transportation um they now have more corner cases to train their systems on than any other company it's not going to be possible for these companies to catch up because tesla already has a million more than a million robots including my model 3 roaming around collecting data and sending it back every day and then the other barrier to entry which i'm surprised this one still exists is over-the-air software updates i got my model 3 in 2018 and i've never had to take it in for a problem uh tesla apparently has diagnosed any problems i've had and corrected them uh before i see them the or experienced them the only problem i've had is a nail in a tire and of course software could not correct that but that was it and we were discussing this the other day as well is going forward mechanics aren't going to be needed as we know them today you know we're still going to need people to do things you know as you said nails and tires there are motors that need to get fixed but kids going to school for for like automotive tech aren't going to be learning as much about the engines as we know them today 10 15 20 years down the road they're gonna be learning about electric motors different things like that that are going to be running evs and these other car manufacturers have no idea of what it's going to take and and the problem is a lot of their money that they make comes from the service that they provide on their vehicles well if they have no service that they need to provide on their vehicles where are they going to make most of their margins from and that's a huge problem for these legacy automakers so let me know down in the comments below how awesome it would be if you didn't have to take your car to the dealership if there was an issue they just fixed it for you and they fixed it for you before you even knew that there was an issue how awesome would that be you don't have to take time off of work to go make an appointment for your car it's just done or if it does need to get fixed guess what they do they just come out to you while you're at work and fix your car while you are at work you know there's not a lot of people who do that there's some mechanics on the side who do that you go to a dealership are they going to do that that ain't going to happen uh and so those four barriers to entry have given tesla to their lead our base uh our base case is three thousand dollars in uh in five years uh from eight hundred dollars today uh and our confidence in that has grown because what we're seeing now is tesla able to scale ev manufacturing in a way that no one else except perhaps byd in china no one else is doing this yet and tesla had to go through a huge learning curve to get there this is not like the manufacturing of traditional autos it's a completely different game and so we believe that tesla's market share we used to say we thought tesla would take 25 of the electric vehicle market in five years now we're saying we believe tesla will take 25 of the total vehicle market in five years and we think electric will be nearly half of total vehicles uh sold now this is a huge bold statement by kathy here because you know in order to hit a three thousand dollar price target in five years you clearly need to take a lot of the market and she's saying that initially they were going to have tesla taking 25 of the ev market okay great but kathy was wrong they're going to take 25 of the total vehicle market that is significantly more than 25 of the ev market as a lot of us tesla investors know it's not evs versus evs it's evs versus legacy auto evs versus the ice vehicles so they're chomping away at that whole total automotive market share and as they're doing this kathy's saying that they're going to have evs be 50 that's half of the total automotive industry across the world and tesla's gonna have 25 percent of that so that's enormous uh the autonomous taxi uh platform opportunity uh in transportation we think that will happen more dramatically uh uh and sooner because regulators actually do want to save lives and auto uh because 80 to 90 percent of all accidents and fatalities in cars are caused by human error we're seeing our regulators uh becoming much more friendly to tesla and uh to autonomous travel generally because their scored card is saving lives and with texting deaths have gone up especially with young people so the regulator the regulators are going to enable autonomous transportation to scale faster than we think this is huge too because a lot of people are pushing away from saying you know fully autonomous driving robo taxis they're not going to happen they're never going to get approved but as kathy's explaining here you know if we are now going to start proving and tesla has been proving that their cars and full self-driving is significantly safer than a human driving then it would be stupid for our regulators and our congressmen and women to not even acknowledge the fact that this is happening and say oh you know what we're not going to do this despite the fact that we have all of this evidence pointing to the fact that it's safer i know as a father my son is going to be driving in the next two years if i knew full well that i could put him in a vehicle that would drive him by itself and be safer than anything else and him driving yeah i'm gonna totally do that and there's gonna be enough people seeing this and then they're gonna start questioning if if our congress people don't start passing laws to say okay we're going to let this happen despite the fact that it's safer then they're going to start losing their jobs and nobody's going to vote for them because they're not doing what's the best for us as a society and so as tesla gets closer and closer to having a full self driving that is level four and level five we're going to see laws start getting passed regulations start getting passed to allow this to come through and as they do that if the other manufacturers don't have a technology that is as safe guess who's going to start selling it to them that's right tesla they've already said they're going to they've already said that they will totally outsource it because similar to volkswagen back in the 50s who invented the seat belt and said you know what we're not going to charge anybody for it because you know we're not going to sell the patent because you know what it's safer for everyone it's just the right thing to do tesla's gonna have that technology and be like by the way we got it here you go and that's what's gonna happen and tesla's now going to own all of this with full self-driving and make the world safer many people i think look at auto dealer lots uh here in the united states there's very little inventory on the lots just 17 days of inventory normal is around 60 days and and many are saying to me uh you're completely wrong about what's going to happen to the auto sector here because what we believe is during the covet crisis in order to avoid mass transit a lot of people bought new and used cars we had a 60 percent increase in used car prices and where are those cars now they're not on dealer lots they're in our garages or our driveways our parking lots and they represent excess inventory we probably wouldn't have bought that extra car certainly not here in the united states if it weren't for the corona virus i think what a lot of people don't recognize of you know when they're looking at these dealer lots that have no vehicles left in them and they're like oh you know they must be doing great with sales they you know they're chasing you know a supply constraint as well just like tesla and it's like the difference is a lot of the people who just bought all these extra vehicles during the coronavirus that's going to be their last ice internal combustion engine vehicle that they're ever going to buy i know personally i'm never buying one again i'm going eevee um i'm going to be buying a tesla and the vehicle i have now is going to go to my son and then after that that's it no more no more engines like that for me and i can see a significant portion of the people who bought all of these cars recently that's gonna be the same thing for them whether their cars last five or ten years that is going to be the last vehicle for them so all of these vehicles that sold out from all these dealer lots over the last year and a half do they may get all those vehicles back but i guarantee a lot of these people are not going to be buying another car like that again they're going to be buying an ev maybe it'll be from one of those dealerships again but it ain't going to be an internal combustion engine i guarantee that i really love watching kathy because her passion for what she does is contagious you know you watch her and you're just like okay what else is she doing and you you want to follow in her footsteps and and see what's going on and and she's just brilliant she's so forward thinking very much like elon you know looking 10 15 20 years down the road versus looking you know six months down the road one year down the road you know if you're looking further ahead it's it's a lot easier to steer the ship and be okay with the the short ups and downs let me know down in the comments below what you think of cathy wood you know do you like to follow in her footsteps do you like what she says do you disagree with some of her things what do you think about her price target do you think 3 000 in five years is realistic do you think it's too high do you think it's too low let me know your thoughts in the comments below thank you all so much for being here i appreciate you if you have not subscribed please do so down below i will see you all later thank you so much you're all awesome
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