저자: 미상 · 외국인
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트럼프 관세 우려 완화와 무역협상 진전으로 시장 반등 가능성을 주장하며, 비트코인 10만불·XRP 반등을 낙관. 유가 하락과 Fed 금리인하 기대, GENIUS 스테이블코인법 등 규제 진전을 상승 근거로 제시. 진행자는 XRP가 금융 결제 핵심이 될 것이라며 유료 VIP 그룹 홍보를 병행함. Tom Lee 발언의 S&P500 5800 전망도 인용.
다듬은 글
In today's news, we may have just received the biggest bullish confirmation ever for these markets that a massive rally is incoming. Cuz we have some geopolitical developments happening right now. The trade wars seem to be coming to a conclusive end. Scott Morrison announcing that there could be a substantial reduction in tariffs on US goods as the United States is finalizing negotiations with 17 out of the 18 key trade partners, which is very good.
So, basically all but China right now. However, apparently China has now confirmed plans to begin trade negotiations as well, which is very bullish news. On the other side of the coin though, however, we have received word now that India and Pakistan are at war with each other. Now, thankfully, for now, that the markets don't seem to be reacting too badly to this news, which lead me to believe that the FOMO is outweighing the FUD, which is a massive bullish signal cuz war always causes markets to crash.
But, we are now sitting at a 97K Bitcoin on track to push for 100K and beyond. XRP is in at $2.16 again, holding strong and looking like it's about to make a recovery very soon. In fact, more sources suggest in this video that we may see the start of a market and XRP price reversal by the end of the week, potentially as soon as tomorrow, as Trump leaks something big is announced is going to be announced very, very soon.
And Tom Lee, who was correct with his predictions as well, confirmed near-term recovery is highly likely. Take a listen. Can you summarize what you've seen in the past couple of weeks and what you think happened? I guess they the peak tariff uh angst was hit when you said it was hit. And it it could couldn't it come back still though?
Um Joe, I I do think tariff fears can come back, but the stock market and I think the macro is in a better place today than it was on April 7th. Um, you know, one is I I think that the tariff expectations, even if uh, we don't know what they end up looking like, are really much better than what we saw on April 2nd.
Um, the second is that not the markets that lead stocks, such as credit and the VIX and high yield, are in a much better place. You know, high yield has recovered almost all the widening that happened since April 7th, and the VIX is uh, uninverting the term structure, which basically means the market for volatility is calming down.
And then I think when we look at 2026, I think there is stuff to have some confidence about because uh, the economy is holding up better at the moment, and next year we can look forward to deregulation. I think the comparisons for earnings will be much better for next year. And then, of course, if we get some tariff policies that lead to exports, we have upside to earnings growth.
So, all in all, I I think it it makes sense that the markets have recovered to this point. As I think new highs are possible this year. I mean, one reason is, you know, companies have proven themselves to manage through shocks, and I don't think investors give them enough credit. That happened with COVID.
Companies survived. Companies survived a bullwhip effect on the economy. They survived a surge in inflation. They survived the Fed hiking at the fastest rate ever. So, I think this tariff shock, while it is shocking, I think earnings will probably outperform expectations. I mean, that'd be one thing.
And then, I think the things that were leading us down, whether it's Tesla or the Mag 7 or Bitcoin, they've they've begun to recover. In fact, as you know, Bitcoin's above its April 2nd level. So, Bitcoin, I think, is telling us the S&P should recover towards the 5800 level in the near term, and that's that's still upside from here.
Yeah. So, as you heard Tom Lee state, Bitcoin effectively is telling all of us what is about to happen in the stock market and for the altcoin market as well. The transition is clearly already happening, where everything's going to be coming on blockchain. Crypto's going to be the leading market. Most likely, XRP alone will drive all financial economies.
XRP is going to be the most important asset in the world. The imminent approval of regulatory frameworks as well is also helping in driving more flow money into these markets. As we understand, the level of institutional capital that is about to flood into these markets. But, if you don't, you can learn much more about it here in the VIP group at warp.com/coinhyphenfactory.
From institutional alpha research documents, trading courses, trade alerts, and so much more. We also have a limited time offer of a 7-day free trial as well. So, if you're interested, link down below in the description come check us out at warp.com/coinhyphenfactory. Now, there's also one more important thing that Tom Lee mentioned and stated in the CNBC interview, which is also coinciding with the possibility we will end up seeing a massive rally by the end of the week or potentially tomorrow.
And it has to do with the inflation indicators. Take a listen again. Oil. And you look at oil, and I just I think that could counteract a lot of of what we see for it maybe even not only offset the tariff inflation, but actually be more important. So, what's the Fed do? Well, I agree with you, Joe. I mean, the two leading indicators for inflation should be, like you said, commodities and oil is telling us inflation is weaker, and the labor market, you know, the JOLTS data shows the job market's not that strong cuz there's not really a wage pushing inflation.
And I think the inflation data recently shows inflation is tracking lower than expected. The Fed has been on hold, and they're saying they're waiting for tariffs. But, what's interesting is the ECB has been cutting rates even though there's tariffs inflation hitting Europe or soon to hit Europe. The reason is ECB's inflation measure, the HICP, excludes shelter.
If the Fed excluded shelter from its inflation core inflation calculation, it's lower than Europe now, and yet Fed funds is over 225 basis points tighter than Europe. So, I I can actually sympathize with the argument the Fed should be cutting now um even if we don't know the effects of the tariffs. Now, why the Fed still hasn't cut rates is anybody's guess.
Maybe, and hopefully, Jerome Powell will surprise us with the imminent FOMC meeting happening later today. He may announce something very, very bullish or hawkish, and that will kick start the market again. Time will tell, of course, but point being, if you were listening to what Tom Lee stated exactly, you would have heard Tom Lee highlight that there are two main inflation indicators, which are jobs and oil.
Jobs are already doing very, very well. That's why inflation hopefully start coming down as well. But regarding to oil, going to this very important announcement, Grok AI seems to believe and speculate that Trump's recent announcement in this video here did something that is very big and really positive that will be announced either tomorrow or Friday from Trump, being one of the most important announcement in many, many years from Trump, has something to do with Saudi Arabia, possibly a major economic deal.
Saudi Arabia, as we should all know, is the largest oil exporter in the world. So, maybe this new deal involves oil, and in theory, therefore, an increase in United States oil supply could result in a decrease in inflation, which would therefore help the Fed have more freedom to cut rates without worrying about inflation rising, which would be very good news.
Again, we'll have to wait and see what Trump announces, but it looks like all of these developments are taking place right here and now at the same time. We can see here, furthermore, the Senate also confirmed earlier that ahead of the historic vote on legislation to be established the first-ever regulatory framework for payments coming very soon.
Key stakeholders are voicing support of the Genius Stablecoin Act. This is a market top indicator. This is how we're going to see so much more capital flood into the market. The implementation of regulatory frameworks are accelerating, meaning institutional capital, trillions of dollars, are closer to getting the green light to buy into crypto and to start utilizing stablecoins.
As the video from Cypress Strikes is here, banks are coming, and they're coming very quickly, and those who don't adopt crypto, stablecoins, risk being left behind. Take a listen again. Banks was very much like the what and the why. Today, the why you don't discuss anymore, it's the what and by by when.
So, I think time is of the essence. Uh banks, they need to uh be forced to the starting line, also because they lose assets under management. They also see they need to be ready or the future readiness for CBDC stable coins to be relevant in the in the payment system. For them, it's important to be ready.
And outsourcing doesn't mean that you are stuck. We have a model We have a model approach that means if over time over over time the banks want to insource some of these services, which could be natural, then they should do so. So, the banks, they do business with us because they want to and not because they have to.
Okay. Well, I'm a little bit preaching to the converted here, but most of our clients are interested in buying rather than than building. And that's obvious because of the size of the institutions that we talk to, which are mid mid-to-small size institutions who tend to require specific skill sets to develop their objectives and to develop their journey into digital assets.
So, they tend to come to us with specific problem problems that we solve and string together for them in order to give them a road map to to delivery. And clearly, the biggest elements in that that decision are time to market and also uh just the sheer pressure on competitiveness and being able to offer these services to their clients because as we just heard, asset preservation is extremely important and there is at at this stage a feel that if you're not competitive, you're if you don't have a solution that is ready to hit the ground and maintain and expand your client base, you're going to be left behind.
This is simply bullish. Fantastic news, especially for Ripple and XRP with the ODL Ripple with their legal clarity and partnerships, but also their ISO 20022 compliance, making them suitable and dare I say the best and leader for cross-border payments coming very very soon worldwide with blockchain, with crypto, with XRP.
As Ripple discloses in this document, Ripple uses the ISO 20022 format, which allows it to carry richer payment data, including extra info like crypto in a message payload along with the original message details. This makes Ripple's messaging system flexible and ready for modern value transfer. We are in the final stretch, guys.
Come check out the VIP group again to learn much more. Stay locked in and as always don't do the short-term thing, long-term, and I'll see you in the next one.
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