저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
무역협상 진전 기대로 증시 반등, 그러나 트럼프의 무역전쟁 불확실성은 지속. 야데니는 트럼프가 중간선거 전 경기침체를 피하려 할 것이며 부분 합의가 나올 것으로 봄. S&P500 조정은 있었으나 강세장 재개 중이며, 빅테크 AI 투자는 여전히 강함. 탈세계화보다 공급망 다변화 쪽이며 세계경제는 상호의존 지속. 단기적으로 인플레이션(2~3%→3~4%)이 상승하고 실업률은 4% 근처 유지, 연준은 금리 인하에 서두르지 않을 것.
다듬은 글
Stocks getting a lift on hopes for trade progress when the US and China meet over the weekend in Switzerland. But is there any material change for investors who are worried about headwinds from the trade war? Joining us now, we've got Ed Yardini, Yardini Research President. Ed, great to have you here with us as we're waiting for details to really emerge from either side because there have been very different narratives that both countries and and multiple countries are really telling when it comes to how they're going about negotiations and whether talks have actually started or not.
What will be the material driving force behind these deals from your perspective? Well, at the end of the day, it's going to be up to President Donald Trump whether there are deals or not. I mean, yesterday he sounded like uh he was ready to declare victory that he he would uh entertain the possibility of uh having deals that weren't in writing.
Um I I think he's got to get this issue behind him by this by the summer. Uh I think there will be deals. Some of them will be a couple of pages long and there'll be frameworks for discussing for further discussions and they'll be signed. Others will just be verbal agreements. Uh I think there will be some sort of uh modus operandi with uh w with with China.
But uh Trump really can't afford to have this all lead to a recession by in the second half of the year and into next year. And the reason for that is that uh the midterm elections are coming up. Uh you know, God bless America. We have a system called checks and balances and it's it's it it works great.
Uh you know, the any administration has to consider not only the next presidential election, but the the midterms. Um and so that's that's an issue. And the Chinese are also under a lot of pressure to get this thing resolved because there are already some reports of um social u social unrest from people that aren't getting paid and um are losing their jobs because they're losing the American market.
So Ed, talk to me about this kind of being a slowm moving barge. When I talk to my sources in Washington, they point to the fact that this took years the first time Trump was in office in terms of getting a deal with China. How do you trade around that uncertainty? Well, I I think that the markets have figured out that you that's what you've got to do that uh the the uncertainty, the uh the volatility, the fact that the president makes a a comment every day that seems to potentially be market moving.
I think at some point the market starts to to move on and focus on other things. Let let's not forget that some of this correction we've seen in the S&P 500 and it was a correction. It wasn't a bare market and I think the bull market is resuming but let's not forget that some of it had to do with uh questioning about AI infrastructure spending.
Uh it was the Magnificent 7 that really uh were down 25% uh bringing the market down 18% and the reason the Magnificent 7 uh got uh basically into a very short-term bare market is deep seek was introduced in January and raised questions about whether these companies were spending money that they were never going to get any return on.
And now with the earnings reports that they're making it clear that they think uh they're going to move forward with their spending and that they will get a return on it. Doesn't that pose kind of a double whammy though if you have on on one end the additive competitive threat of course which is natural in any open market but then you also have which is what the markets were clearly moving in more outsized fashion on liberation day comments and then the oh yeah we're starting negotiations or pausing the tariffs for 90 days and that was some of the more severe price action correlation that we were watching here and so so that in mind I guess The question is when you have kind of that double whammy of both, you're also now sucking out some of the potential growth for those semiconductor names that had really been the kind of poster children for the rally that we've seen over the past two years.
Well, the the the data shows that uh spending is still uh quite strong in the technology area. I mean, the again the earnings reports didn't indicate that anybody was really cutting back on their capital spending budgets. Uh look, a AI is basically just the evolution of what I call the digital revolution.
Uh and the real what AI is really all about is increasing the demand for processing information uh data and uh that requires more and more infrastructure. So it's really all about expanding the capacity of cloud computing and I don't think that's changed at all. And then of course we got a shortage of labor which uh needs to be resolved solved with productivity and productivity comes from technology.
So I just to clarify as well I guess what I'm also asking here on top of that though is is the is it still as strong is the market still as wide for all of these companies if you also have a deglobalization effort that's taking place at the same time. Well, again, I think we want to be careful about uh you know, extrapolating uh short short-term statements, short-term events for where this is all going.
Uh I I don't really see this leading to delobalization. I think uh we're going to be just seeing greater diversification of supply chains. I mean, this this has been going on for a while anyways since Trump 1.0. Even under Biden, there was a move away from China to Vietnam and Mexico and Canada. I think what uh Trump is uh protesting is that the Chinese used some of these countries as back doors for uh for dumping their products.
Anyways, in the United States, the Europeans are getting dumped on with electric vehicle cars. It's creating a real mess for their auto industry. So I think you're just going to see a lot of push back mostly against China and I I think overall the the global economy is going to continue to grow and be interdependent.
That's just not going to change. And based on your notes, I know that you do see the US economy as resilient in the face of the tariff turmoil, but you do say a recession is still a possibility on on our Fed day here. I'm curious, is stagflation or recession worse? Because with stagflation at least the Fed could potentially or with stagflation the Fed has less room than they do in a recession.
I I I think in the short term uh you're going to see more inflation than stagnation uh in in the economy and uh that I think keeps the Fed on hold for sure. Uh in other words, I think the the inflation rate which is right now 2 to 3% goes up to 3 to 4% pretty quickly here. that's been signaled by some of these regional business surveys of pricing.
So, I think inflation is going to heat up here. Uh it's going to be kind of like a mini version of what happened during the COVID pandemic with supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, I think the unemployment rate is actually going to stay fairly close to 4%. That's not an environment for the Fed to to lower interest rates.
So, I think the message from the Fed is going to be more of the same, which is they're in no hurry at all to lower interest rates. Ed, we got to go. So that means probably not a hundred basis points of cuts this year, right? No, not at all. Ed, thanks so much for taking the time this morning.
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