저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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유가·중동 긴장으로 시장이 4주 연속 하락했으나, 투자심리(AAII 약세 52%, CNN 공포탐욕 극단적 공포)와 Market Edge 오실레이터(-7.5, 2025년 4월 -10.62 이후 30일 S&P +13.6%)를 근거로 과매도 반등 가능성을 강조. 반등 지속 여부는 확신 못 한다고 명시. 개별 종목 매수 언급은 CNBC 투자클럽 자선신탁의 두 종목 매수 사실로, 종목명 미기재.
다듬은 글
Most investors think the market is still heading lower because oil spiked, Europe faces gas shortages, and the S&P just had its fourth down week in a row. But, I'm going to show you how to use Cramer's own sentiment indicators and oscillator readings, so you can stop panicking and start positioning for the snapback rally that history says is coming.
for rebounding hard in the afternoon as the price of oil pulled back from highs. The Dow only finished down 204. S&P declined just 0.27%. Nasdaq shed 0.28%. What a comeback. Based on the decline in the price of oil at the end of the day. But, I think the oversold nature of the stock market had much more to do with it.
The session started out really bad because we got another big rally in the price of oil. This spike, which was felt far more in Europe than the United States, happened because of a volley of attacks on oil fields. First, Israel bombing the giant South Pars gas field, Iran's biggest gas field, and then Iran hitting Qatar's biggest LNG facility, causing some serious damage.
Unlike the US, which is overflowing with natural gas, the rest of the world doesn't have enough to go around. Qatar is the world's biggest exporter, so the price of that gas jumped globally, taking the world economy one step closer to recession, even if it didn't impact our price. We're now headed toward our fourth down week in a row, even as most of our companies are doing quite well, and interest rates, they've been tame.
President did say on Truth Social that no more tax will be made by Israel on, quote, this extremely important and valuable South Pars field, end quote, unless Iran attacks Qatar first. Uh which in that case, the whole South Pars field would be wiped out, Trump claimed. Now, is that an olive branch, or just some random musings that they kind of don't mean anything?
Honestly, it doesn't matter because at today's lows, we reached that hold your nose and moment where the market got so oversold, so negative, that it really doesn't matter what happens. That's right, things turn around. How can I be so sure that today's afternoon rebound can continue? I can't. Well, but all I have is history.
I like history, though, because it holds up. And I got sentiment uh well, at least as well as it can be measured. So, let me make this tangible to you. Let's go with a checklist of what I like to look at. First of all, I like to look at the American Association of Individual Investor Poll. That poll right now is showing a shocking amount of bearishness.
Right now, the bulls are at bulls. Uh neutral 17.6%, and a phenomenal 52% of the people believe that the market's going to go down, maybe big. They're bearish. And that's a highly unusual skew. It means there are far more bearish than bulls. That matters because when just about everyone's already bearish, THERE'S NOBODY LEFT TO SELL.
WHEN you see this kind of ratio, it means that bears are more likely to convert to bulls on any positive news, and they're going to put their money to work in stocks. It's just unsustainable to have this many bears right now. Now, mind you, I don't have a reason to justify that buying, right? Maybe President Trump sticks by his word.
But uh it somehow opens the straits of Hormuz, destroying Iranian leverage. Maybe Iran says uncle, though I can't imagine that. Maybe a new source of oil comes to the market with a pipeline that we know about that's bigger than we thought. Maybe we just let the hostilities cool off a little bit. Second, CNN's got this index.
I don't look at it that much except when it's extreme. It's called the Fear and Greed Index. It's a total market sentiment tool. There are five elements to the semicircle: extreme fear, fear, uh neutral, greed, and extreme greed. Right now, we're solidly in the extreme fear center. [groaning] Again, like the bull-bear ratio, it's unlikely that the panickers are going to be right.
Historically, that would be highly unusual. They know nothing. Third, there's the trusty oscillator that puts it's put out by this organization called Market Edge. I swear by it. It measures overbought and oversold pressure on the S&P 500. Now, I've been studying this oscillator since 1987. It comes out every day right when the market closes, and it's rarely steered me wrong.
If you buy into an extremely oversold market like the one we have right now, you tend over the next 30 days to begin to make out like a bandit. The notion behind the oscillator is that there's a level of equilibrium between +3 and -3, where you're kind of in this thing called it's it's no man's land.
The oscillator means nothing between those guideposts, buy or sell. When it reaches -5 or +5, you begin to get some historical impact. +5 signals that the market's overbought, which quite simply means if things are too bullish, sell sell sell. There are they're so positive that if there's any negative news, the averages could have a severe setback.
Same with the -5 gauge. If we get a flash of something positive in an oversold market, the bears are going to have to scramble, which rapidly moves up prices. At last night's close, the oscillator was at -7.5. And that's extremely oversold. At these levels, the odds now favor the bulls. Which is just one reason why I think we rebounded in the afternoon.
No, it doesn't mean that the averages definitely will fly higher, but it's very rare for the market to get this oversold. The last time we dropped more than yesterday was shortly after Liberation Day. That was last year, April, when the oscillator clocked an incredible -10.62. 30 days later, the S&P was up 13.6%.
There hasn't been another -10 reading since then. They're very rare events. A study of the oscillator's history shows that an oversold reading this extreme almost always produces large gains out 30 days. The oscillator's only led me astray a handful of times in the last 38 years. Mostly, they were situations where we had genuine systemic risk.
Think the miserable week for the crash of '87, or the weeks on end at the onset of the financial crisis. Then, it was wrong. Those are the exceptions, though. As a rule, you have to buy something when the oscillator gets this oversold. You do. And that's why we did some buying for the charitable trust that members of the CNBC Investing Club know.
We sent out a bulletin that said we were buying two stocks. We've held off that kind of commitment for a long time. But, today, because of that oscillator, we pulled the trigger out of respect for the oversold condition. Now, I want to be very clear. I'm not saying that oil's peaking here, although I was surprised by the weakness in West Texas Intermediate Crude today.
I hope you were. I'm not saying that the war with Iran is winding down. No, too many variables, including a president who only says the war is over and maybe he'll send in ground troops. I am saying that on any good news of any proportion, perhaps after retest here, there could be a snapback rally of some proportion.
Here's the bottom line. History says that when you get this oversold, there will be a meaningful rally, something lasting. I'm going with history. It's
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