저자: Stockology Insider · 외국인
다듬은 글
Everyone is hyperfocused on Jensen Huang's $1 trillion revenue target, but Dan Ives believes Nvidia is actually sandbagging those numbers and what the true 2027 revenue looks like when the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution finally stop being an AI ghost trade. Yeah, look, it's really a victim of their own success.
I I think the bar continues to be set higher and higher, but the reality is this is just a digestion period. You know, I think as you look out to the coming years, you know, I think this is just a start. It's year three of an 8 to 10 year build out and there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and that's Nvidia.
I think we saw that front and center at GTC today. Is this not though as some people are saying, you know, it used to be pricing in optimism, now investors in the market they're they're they're demanding proof. Yeah, look, I think to some extent, look, right now New York City cab driver is bearish on tech.
So, I think that's part of it and you see with Microsoft, the hyperscalers and others. I think for Nvidia, yeah, it's a prove it, but ultimately I think there's still some concerns about competition when you think about Google, OpenAI and others, but as we talked about and when it comes to inference and the Grok deal, this is we're talking about a three to four trillion dollar market opportunity.
And I think that continues to be why you own Nvidia. I think this is a six trillion dollar market cap by 2027. Ooh, okay, Dan, listen, I want to focus in on that $1 trillion number that Jensen has been throwing around. When I think back and try and put it in in context, you know, Amazon and Walmart, you know, it took Walmart decades to hit a trillion dollars.
It took Amazon probably an entire lifetime and then now Jensen is saying they're going to hit it in what, two years or so? And the other thing is I did some simple math and, you know, you live and breathe these numbers. I just wake up slamming espresso and that's how I catching up on my phone, so you're probably better off than I am.
But look come on. 2025, $216 billion in revenue, $364 billion for 2026 this year, next year 2027 is $470 billion. So, you add that up, that that adds up to 1.05 trillion. I'm not niggling here because at these levels, I mean, every decimal point makes a difference. So, it sounds as though is he guiding lower?
No, I think, look, he's just talking about the backlog that he sees in the 2027, but but my view is as we've seen the last few quarters, he continued to really sandbag to some extent 20, 30% that's probably going to be higher than these numbers. So, when you look at the trillion, that's probably closer to 1.4, 1.5 trillion when it's all said and done.
And I think that continues to be the formula because they're seeing demand to put it in context, 12 to one demand to supply right now for Nvidia chips. And of course, SK Hynix surged to 7% in yesterday's session in the lead up into this GTC event. What we got, I think the big takeaway is obviously Nvidia continues to expand in this business.
They are a platform. They are set to ride sort of multiple waves of AI. I get that and that's been your mantra, Dan. But I wonder if memory layers will provide better investment opportunities than Nvidias of the world just because the competition story is there and of course there are some question marks over what Google is doing, what some of the other hyperscalers are trying to achieve here to bring down the cost and bring up their sort of vertical integration story.
Look, you hit the nail on the head. I think that's really why this is sort of been on a treadmill in terms of Nvidia stock. Look, when you look at memory, we're in a memory supercycle. From Micron to SK, you know, and obviously what we see, you know, really across the board in terms on the memory side, you know, Samsung among others.
Look, those stocks are going to continue to go higher. But my whole point is that when you look at what's happening with Nvidia, there's only one godfather of AI. And even if you look at what's happening on the demand side, when you look at Reuben and and you go down the the path, they're going to continue to have demand to supply 10 to one, 12 to one probably for the foreseeable future.
But that's also going to benefit to Google. But it speaks to our view, you have to own the second, third, fourth derivatives. You like you talk about memory, you talk about chips and I continue to think the software sell-off is the most disconnected sell-off that we've seen since covering stocks in the late '90s.
How are you thinking about the whole software angle and of course we've had a lot of opportunities on CNBC to hear from you and get your views. And then the latest that we got just overnight was Nvidia software is aiming to bring Open Qlaw to the enterprise. What does that say to the whole software space?
Is that a negative to Microsofts of the world? Look, I view it ultimately as a positive because it just speaks to like what Jensen's saying is that the use cases are going to be in software. That's where everyone's going after. There's a better chance of me being in the Olympics in 2028 than Anthropic unseating a Salesforce, a ServiceNow, a CrowdStrike, a Palo Alto.
I think right now that's why it's an AI ghost trade. But it continues I think software you've seen the bottoming and I think it's very important because as these use cases play out second half of the year, software will be the hearts and lungs of this AI revolution along with memory, along with chips, but it speaks to our view.
This is still a bull cycle for tech despite obviously this white-knuckle period that we're going through.
Comments 0