저자: 미상 · 외국인
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시장 사이클은 자연스러운 과정이며, 공포가 극에 달했을 때가 오히려 기회라는 취지의 영상. 시장 공포 지표: 뱅크오브아메리카 고객 현금 비중이 9·11 이후 최고 수준, S&P500 연초 대비 약 12.8% 하락으로 역대 상위권 약세 출발이라고 언급. JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼이 연준 긴축, 우크라이나 전쟁, 유가 급등을 이유로 경제 '허리케인'을 경고하며 현금 보유를 늘리고 있다고 소개. 과거 데이터: 1997년부터 S&P500이 2000년까지 2배, 2000~2002년 절반, 2002~2007년 2배, 2007~2009년 절반으로 변동했다는 점을 들어 변동성을 활용할 수 있다고 주장. 소형주와 기술주 다수가 80~90% 하락했다고 언급하며, 기업 내재가치를 파악하면 저평가 기회가 있다고 주장. 리 루(Li Lu) 인용: 포트폴리오가 50% 빠져도 흔들리지 않는 기질이 좋은 투자자의 특징이며, 기업 가치를 알면 변동은 우호적이라는 취지. 버핏 인용: 시간은 훌륭한 기업의 친구이며, 해자(moat)가 강한 기업을 매수하라는 조언. 주의: 일부 기업은 가격에 비해 가치가 낮을 수 있어 내재가치 판단이 필요하다고 언급. 강세장 고점에서는 매도 후 다음 하락을 기다리라는 전략 제시. 진행자는 하락기 매수, 상승기 일부 매도 전략을 제안하며 구체적 개별 종목 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome back to just invest today in today's video we are talking about the market cycle the natural element of the market because we see this market going crazy going up and down you see all the bearish news all the bearish articles no one wants to invest during these times like everyone hates it but if you really understand the mark you know this is a natural process of the market and this is always going to happen we hear amazing investors always talk about the changes in the market it goes up and down and kind of what to do during this market cycle and actually you can kind of take advantage of the market cycle if you just understand it in this video i'm going to play a couple of clips from lee lou warren buffett and joel greenblatt that talk about the market cycle and the recession worries are are at an all-time high everyone thinks there's going to be like a next depression level going on soon people really think there's going to be like a depression right now you see the market is already down 11 percent for the past six months it's been down lower than this two down like 20 you see the crane shares in china down 26 for the last six months is down almost 68 or 52 for the past year but it had a strong comeback for the month of 32 so you kind of see the sentiments shifting a little bit but you see a lot of articles just preaching fear fear in the market because of the recession worries about inflation oil prices about the war just a lot of stuff happening in the market so let's look at this first article bank of america client cash at the highest level in two decades bank of america survey shows highest cash levels since 9 11.
this is crazy and this is all because of everything going on in the market and people are just super super bearish you believe that if that is not super bearish and almost like going to depression levels what is like people do not want to invest people are holding their money they think equity is just going to continue going down and down and down so it might be true but who really knows look at this post by charlie the worst starts to a year for the s p 500 this year is in the top 10 in the history of the market 12.8 percent 19 1932 was 45 which was the highest which is pretty crazy insane but 12.8 it's like top six man that is insane you have jamie coming out and saying that brace yourself for an economic hurricane caused by the fed in the ukraine war so the jp marking jp morgan ceo is predicting something really bad to happen in the future as he sees the fed tightening he sees the ukraine war he sees that they're not buying bonds at the same rate which is tightening he sees oil prices going sky high so he is just preparing his bank and just holding on to more cash holding on to more reserves so we see what's happening in the market everyone is actually down on the market preparing for the worst time so this is what's going on in the market but we have to look at the other side and know that this is the natural process of the market and this goes back to the market cycle let's hear some of the best investors talk about the market cycle and how to handle it uh something like this hey joel congratulations you've been doing this for 35 years there's more data there's more ability to crunch numbers and for um so my students are generally second year mbas i'd say age 27 or so uh so i'll just answer it this way let's go back to when we learn how to read uh let's take a look at the most followed mark in the world that would be the united states let's take a look at the most followed stocks within the most followed market in the world those would be the s p 500 stocks let's take a look at what's happened since you learned how to read so from 1997 uh when they were 10 uh to 2000 the s p 500 doubled from 2000 to 2002 at half from 2002 to 2007 it doubled from 2007 to 2009.
look at that all the volatility in the last 17 years are you telling me that you can't take advantage of that doubling and having doubling tripling and halfing that's what the market is about if you can honestly just value companies and stay the course like this is a beneficial time right now um small cap stocks have been getting crushed and this is a perfect example of if you look under the hood like a lot of these companies even all these tech companies are down 80 90 so even though the s p is down like 11 or 13 for the year when you're looking at other companies in other sectors it's like 80 90 which is literally insane so you can look under the hood to find value if you can find the intrinsic value of these different companies so there should be an opportunity there should be an opportunity this is the perfect example if you have money on the side this is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of everything that's going on in the market right now let's listen to lee liu himself talk about this market cycle and even businesses that are going to be thriving um the up and down of the market becomes friendly for us lee liu is saying this uh you can look at your portfolio be down 50 and not flinch at all that's the hallmark of a good investor how many people are down like 30 40 percent man if you understand the real value of your companies and you're not too worried about it then yeah but honestly some companies are not worth what they you paid for so in that case you can't you kind of have to be worried but if you understand the real intrinsic value of your companies and they're down 20 30 then you don't have to be too worried because the hallmark of a great investor is being good at staying calm yeah other side of the point is that you are equally unexpected with everybody of the is and to succeed in this game and require certain temperament and a certain understanding of human nature also a certain context of approach so that's it for lead lou he's telling you just how it is and how businesses don't really change that much so the most important thing is just having that philosophy in your mind to stay calm collective during these ups and downs of the market cycle which is happening right now and but which tech company was affected severely by this huge downturn like what company can you see that's never going to return back to what it is and that's part of the game man but that's why we buy companies with strong moats to kind of handle this problem buying wonderful companies because warren buffett always says time is the friend of a wonderful company whole business intrinsic value and seeing what are these business actually worth that had this huge downward trend when you've seen the s p 500 go down so much it has to be amazing businesses with good value it is so that's it for the video guys tell me what you think about the market cycle and how there's gonna be time periods where you can take advantage of it when the market is down and down and now people are bearish then there's gonna be upward trends where you probably can't find companies to buy but that's when you can kind of exit out and your companies probably reach intrinsic value at that time so you can probably sell out a little bit to make that huge profit or that profit and then kind of wait for a next downturn or wait for until you can find another company to buy so guys this is the market cycle like this video and subscribe to my channel peace
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