원문 보기
michael bury has done what all investors merely dream of earning millions of dollars from trading in the stock market as the market has recently crashed berry predicts that an even bigger crash is coming one that will set prices back by a couple of decades join us in today's video as we examine the factors that led to bury's prediction for the third time michael berry raked in billions of dollars in 2022 following his accurate forecasts of the dot-com bubble in the economic downturn in 2008 he correctly anticipated the latest market adjustment despite a significant market decline berry thinks this is the only beginning of a much more massive drop he still expects the market to fall by more than half from where it is now in this video you'll learn why michael bury is preparing for a greater recession and how you can prepare just like birdie michael brewery is referred to as a broken clock by several investors because the vast majority of his wealth has been acquired through timing market crashes unfortunately berry isn't immune to the challenges of market timing every time he's made a prediction he's been early but has also been accurate in the end habitually be one to two years early on literally everything and you too can attain broken clock status bury wrote on twitter a while back initially berry predicted a market collapse in the second half of 2021 despite the time the situation has unfolded precisely as he anticipated he anticipated an increase in the rate of inflation a decline in the value of bond prices a correction of the market as a whole and a collapse in the growth stock market despite his habit of predicting very early murray is often correct human nature has helped bury predict market crashes the way people behave hasn't changed even as technology has progressed and that has been demonstrated throughout history third time's charm 10 years leading to a financial crisis yellow s p 500 2000 while s p 500 today greendo 1929 god love human nature nothing if not consistent bury stated on twitter the speculation that occurred during the dot-com bubble is represented by the yellow line the green line is analogous to the prosperous years of the 1920s that came well before the great depression in both of these periods there was an unprecedented level of financial risk which in the end resulted in a significant decline during the height of the dot-com bubble we witnessed non-profitable internet stocks experience gains of one thousand or even two thousand percent before tumbling to zero in addition there was an absurd amount of speculation during the roaring twenties in just nine years stock prices increased four times as much as they were prices were expected to continue rising as with most investors to prove his point berry tweeted a newspaper article showing how absurd the rumors were although the market ended the day with a loss the headline stated that brokers were encouraged by a late day rally these two runs to the upside are both indicative of a single behavior which is greed a similar pattern of creed was observed in the years of 2020 and 2021 berry believes the market will crash within the next two years even though the market may experience a short-term recovery where he tweeted after 2000 the nas daq had 16 bear market rallies about 10 percent averaging 22.7 percent before bottoming down 7 8 after 1929 the doe had 10 bear market rallies over 10 percent averaging 22.8 percent before bottoming down 89 although short-term rallies are expected to occur they should not be interpreted as a sign of long-term recovery by investors according to brewery dead cat bounces are the most epic 12 of the top 20 nasdaq one day rallies happened during the seven eight percent drop from 2000 stop nine of the top 20 s p 500 one day rallies happened during the 86 percent drop from the 1929 top he said elaborating on his prediction as a result of this tweet an interesting and deceptive connection has been revealed consistently the greatest market gains occur during long-term market declines which is extremely deceptive bury has brought up a lot of connection between things but we all know that a connection does not mean that something has caused it michael berry has uncovered some frightening underlying fundamentals supporting his prediction everyone is aware of how dire the macroeconomic situation is you may hear from various economists that the situation in ukraine and russia is dangerously close to caving in others will assert that the chinese economy is deteriorating or that the rise in u.s interest rates is anticipated to continue no matter how many macroeconomic conditions are true only one factor will bring down the economy customers consumption is the primary source of economic activity personal consumption expenditures account for nearly 70 percent of total gdp in the united states economic collapse is inevitable if consumers lose confidence in the market the declining purchasing power of consumers is at the heart of the modern macroeconomic challenge if everyone stops spending and starts cutting expenses the economy will suffer this is the problem last 18 months minus 850 billion dollars in direct steam checks 400 billion dollars in cash out refis 1 trillion in forgivable loans with 250 to 500 billion of it fraudulent another four trillion dollars indirect etc what recapitalizes the consumers now higher wages can do that berry stated on twitter as a result of soaring prices you and other consumers feel that your money is worth much less than it was before the economic crisis an overwhelming amount of evidence shows consumers are at their most vulnerable in history the university of michigan consumer sentiment index is widely regarded as the premier indicator of changes in consumer behavior consumer confidence is at an all-time low as evidenced by the university of michigan consumer sentiment index which is presently at a record low amazon's sales decline is yet another indication of dwindling consumer spending power in the first quarter amazon's revenue increased just seven percent year on year and the company's first quarter revenues missed by a significant amount amazon has emerged as the preeminent marketplace in this age of technology and it is there that most consumers buy the goods they need the fact that amazon had a poor quarterly outcome indicates that customers are in an extremely vulnerable position and so amazon tells the gdp there's your weakening consumer barry posted on twitter given all this information how did berry amass so much wealth quickly and how can others follow suit stick around as we discuss how investors like you may be able to do it as a result of diminishing consumer base berry thinks this will reduce profit margins the fight that companies put up to keep their prices high will be the driving force behind this as a result businesses will be forced to reduce their prices however this raises the issue of salary stability consequently wages will continue to rise with regard to prices to maintain a profit companies will have to decrease their prices while also increasing their wages if a decline in sales occurs product price to sales ratio will drop shorting ones will generate millions if not billions of dollars for barry's portfolio in the coming year later that year he admitted to shorting treasury bonds with maturities of 30 years or less for what it's worth i've never shorted any cryptocurrency this is my third bubble and the biggest i've learned a thing or two 30-year treasuries on the other hand he wrote on twitter bond shorting is a no-brainer for birdie although yields on 30-year bonds were still hovering around 2 percent inflation was quickly approaching 7 because of this investors and bonds were effectively guaranteed a five percent per year loss in the short term there is a negative relationship between bond yields and bond prices as a result one yields rose and bond prices fell berry has previously acquired tbt the pro shares ultra short 20 plus year treasury exchange traded fund tbt is an exchange traded fund that engages in the short sale of a bunch of bonds due to the rising cost of borrowing and inflation as well as the instability in ukraine bond yields have soared in recent months as a result one price has plummeted while tbt soared since bury first disclosed a short position the tbt etf has experienced growth of over 43 percent even though that is a sizable sum barry expects to earn far more in the long term 1977 says the low with a picture of him in 1977 was posted on twitter by berry referring to the economic climate of the 1970s one of the most infamous periods in world history known as the great inflation occurred from 1970 to 1980.
1977 saw a 6.5 percent inflation rate which rose to about 14 percent in 1980 our predicament is strikingly similar the current rate of inflation is close to 8 percent but berry predicts that it will go up to 10 and possibly even 15 percent inflation may have already surpassed 10 percent it's no secret that berry dots the consumer price index the measure used to gauge inflation cpi says housing costs rose 5 in the last 12 months wrong cpi would be 12 using real word nar housing data table which has smoothed out housing numbers forever because home prices have been a problem so next month they will start smoothing out vehicle prices hashtag problem solved he elaborated on twitter according to bury the cpi utilizes housing prices that are significantly lower than they are as stated by the cpi only five percent growth has occurred in housing prices over the last year that is a big fat lie using accurate housing data to calculate home values would result in a cpi inflation rate of 12 percent this indicates that the current level of inflation which stands at eight percent is incorrect by a factor of four percent due to this error in calculation and several other macroeconomic variables the market is projected to witness a crash that will result in prices dropping by approximately 55 from their present levels bury explained on twitter how there were paradigm shifts or speculative peaks the s p 500 bottomed 13 percent lower than 2002's bottom in 2009 17 lower than 1990 its long-term capital management crisis low in 2002 and 10 lower than 1970s low in 1975.
15 percent lower than the covid low is spx 1862 roughly schiller p2e of 16 nominal p2e of 9 in historic range michael brewery is drawing attention to a trend in which the severity of market crashes tends to increase with time smp's crash is expected to be generally lower than kovids if this trend holds bury uses a baseline of 15 here to determine whether or not this may be deemed acceptable in theory if the snp fell 15 below its previous record low during covid the index would be around 1800 approximately 55 percent lower than present levels it could bring the index back to its early prices berry's tweet included a graph of the shiller price to earnings ratio over time the schiller p e ratio is periodically adjusted to provide an accurate index implying that the inflation rate is factored in at this point the schiller p2e ratio stands at 36.
this ratio would be reduced to approximately 16 if there were a crash of 55 percent which is comparable to the historical average an additional graph attached by berry shows the 12 month average of the nominal p e ratio presently our p to e ratio is 21. in the event of a 55 decline this would drop to just 9.
to put it another way a p to e of 9 would be mildly below the average but berry considers it appropriate all of the evidence supports its prediction that the suffering will continue for a while there are some of you who believe that short-term crashes don't matter as much if you hold onto stocks with the long term as long as you can deal with the mental anguish of seeing your portfolio fall significantly this is absolutely the case it's not uncommon for great companies to go through ups and downs in the short term amazon is a good illustration of this phenomenon during the peak of the dot-com bubble how far can the stock of a decent growing organization fall one destined to be one of the greatest companies in the world remember when amazon fell 95 percent but the fed but the fed didn't have inflation like this hanging over its head either berry wondered to be a successful stock market investor you must be willing to stick with a stock that loses more than 95 percent of its value over time managing one's emotions in the face of a short-term volatility can be challenging for all investors in relation to volatility trading volume is another indicator of an impending market crash during periods of market instability there is typically an increase in the number of transactions carried out by buyers on both the buy and sell sides of the market this contributes to the general trend of the increased trading volume the ratio of current trading volume to total shares outstanding has reached an all-time low michael bury emphasized on twitter top to bottom microsoft traded 5.2 times its shares outstanding by 2002 3.3 times by 2009 and 0.5 times so far amazon traded 5.7 times by 2002 6.6 by 2009 and 0.9 times so far jp morgan traded three times by 2002 5.9 times by 2009 and about 0.7 times so far etc enough takes time there is still a long way to go before the market resembles previous crashes regarding the trading volume this is since the market is more active when prices are down a sizeable increase in trading volume is still required for the market crash to be comparable to those that have occurred in the past remember that michael bury is not a professional in the field of finance he wants a hedge fund and would make money if the market fell do your research and take risks when investing in the stock market nevertheless given his record of success i would not disregard barry's forecasts he recently stated at least i tried in response to the fact that the traditional financial system never takes his advice into consideration what do you think of the statements made by michael bury do you think the market will see an even bigger crash we'd like to hear your opinion in this in the comment section below if you enjoyed this video kindly like and subscribe and we'll catch you in the next one
Comments 0