'None and done' is what we'll see from Fed this year, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

Fed는 올해 금리 동결(None and done)이 될 가능성이 높다는 전망. 이란 전쟁·유가 급등에도 경기는 회복력을 보여 침체 가능성은 커지지만 버틸 것으로 봄. 에너지 쇼크는 과거 1970년대처럼 주식시장에 불리할 수 있으나 현재 에너지 비용의 GDP 비중은 역사적으로 낮음. 기술주 이익 전망은 상향 중이며 Mag 7 조정은 밸류에이션(PER 22→20) 하락 때문. AI 군비경쟁으로 빅테크 간 경쟁이 치열해져 투자 지출이 늘었다는 진단. 투자자는 '대기(stay put)'를 권고.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We don't know. But let's ask somebody who does. That is Ed Yardeni. He is the president of Yardeni Research. He is on set. We're glad to have you, Ed. Thank you very much. So, what we don't get Let's say we don't get a hike or a cut. We get the same level of Fed funds rates all year. What happens then?

02. done is where where I Done and done. Done and done. I like that. Yeah, I think that's what we're going to see this year. Uh look, the economy has been remarkably resilient since the beginning of the decade. I think it's getting stress tested again once more. This time, of course, with this war in the in the Middle East with oil prices going up.

03. I think the the economy is going to weather this the storm. I don't think we're going to go into recession, though I think the risks of that are increasing, but I think the economy will will make it through. Uh I think the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Yeah. You know, I don't think they can do anything.

04. They don't know, you know, and and by the way, Powell, when he gave his press conference I guess it was a week ago, he he mentioned the words some combination of we don't know about 20 times. So, that we don't know. We don't know. And if you say you know, if anybody out there says they know exactly what's going to happen,

05. to Polymarkets. Yeah, they they should go to Polymarket, and maybe you should ask them where their time machine is because they've come back from the future because I don't know anybody else that knows exactly what's going to happen. And given that environment, Ed, how do we invest? Well, I think you just stay stay put.

06. I mean, I I think it's I don't know if it's too late to panic cuz people may may panic over the weekend depending on how things unfold with Iran, but I would stay put. You know, I I don't think you can gain this very well. a point at which we don't stay put because it drags on and historically, the stock market has not reacted well to energy shocks.

07. It has not acted well. As a matter of fact, we all remember the 1970s, a stagflationary period. There were two oil shocks back then. It was a dead period, a dead decade for the for the stock market. So, that's that's not out of the realm of possibilities now that we've got an oil shock. And we had an oil shock at the beginning of the decade back in 20 22 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

08. So, um we are going to get something that looks like a twin peak inflation situation, but I think the difference is going to be the resilience of the consumer, the economy, capital spending. I have been I have to say I I've been doing this long enough to kind of give my sideways opinion. I am a little shocked at how resilient most of the stock market has been.

09. Really. I mean, I know we're down a couple percent from the highs, but we rallied huge Absolutely. into it. Are you surprised at how resilient we've been? I'm not Well, I'm not surprised with the resilience of the economy so far. It's still to be tested. And therefore, I'm not that surprised by by the market because the other thing that's happening here is apparently industry analysts haven't gotten the memo that the there's a war going on and it might cause a recession because earnings expectations have actually gone up.

10. Uh the analyst expectations for the Are those wrong? Is that wrong to do that? Um Energy, while critical, is the lowest Yeah. percentage of the GDP input cost that it's been ever in American history. not going [clears throat] to make a big difference. What is making a big difference is that we continue to see that earnings expectations are rising in technology.

11. Uh for it has a lot of controversy about technology these days, but the analysts collectively keep raising their estimates for that sector. But yet, there has been a drawdown in the Mag 7, a pretty good drawdown. it would have been more if it hadn't been for the analysts raising their earnings. In other words, the valuation multiple of the market, overall market, with the Magnificent Seven has has gone down from about 22 to 20.

12. It would have been more than that if earnings estimates hadn't been right. think that drawdown in the Mag 7 is related to the war? I don't see what the connection is other than maybe It's it's a whole nat gas as an input cost to AI. It's a whole different war in that it was we talked about it before when I was here.

13. That's kind of the Game of Thrones. For a long time, they were seven independent kingdoms surrounded by moats, happy with what they were doing, really weren't competing with each other. AI suddenly created an AI arms race, if you will. And now they're all competing with each other. They're spending a lot of money.

14. So, the game has changed. It's still the Game of Thrones, but it's it's more competitive. Let's put it that