저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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이란 전쟁과 폭탄 투하 연장 협상으로 시장이 급락한 상황. 엔비디아는 전쟁 영향보다 과도한 매도 및 메모리 칩 부족 완화 기술(구글) 등을 근거로 장기적으로는 보유할 가치가 있으나, 지금은 기다리는 것이 낫다고 봄. 화학주(Chem 7)는 전쟁이 지속될 때만 유리하다며 선호하지 않음. 전반적으로 단기 시장은 불확실하며 현재는 관망 입장.
다듬은 글
. Look, you . Days like today, I got to do some teaching, cuz these are hard. Call me at 1-800-743-C-N-B-C. Remember Jim Cramer. Ooh, armchair generals now, aren't we? Whenever I talk to people about the stock market these days, they don't want to talk stocks, or even sectors. They just want to jabber on and on about whether the Iranians or our president mean it, whatever meaning it actually entails.
The war decided the market's fate again today, with the Dow tumbling 429 points. S&P plunging 1.74%, but the Nasdaq plummeting 2.38%. It was a truly hideous session as sellers anticipated the deadline passed, and heavy bombing over the weekend. But after the close, the president said that at the request of the Iranians, he said that, he's going to extend the negotiations another 10 days, and said the talks were going well.
The armchair military strategists rolled over. President, they're parsing those words again, wondering if the Iranians really did ask for an extension, and are the talks really going well? The armchair generals tell me that the Marines are ready to go, the 82nd Airborne's in play. These verbal warriors are telling me that the Iranians aren't going to open the Strait of Hormuz, no matter what, no matter how hard the US bombs them after the pause, because there'll be no agreement.
Look, I'm not a military strategist. I periodically I play one on TV. However, I am your stock tactician. And I can recognize an ugly market when I see it. The question we keep asking ourselves is, at what point can we buy things without needing to worry about an Iran-induced oil shock dragging the whole thing down, or do we have to keep selling and selling?
Tonight, we're profiling Chewy, for instance, the online pet supply store and Lemonade, the AI insurance underwriter. Those might be worth buying now that they've come down dramatically, right? But you'd be threading the needle because barring an unlikely act of capitulation by Iran, we're not going anywhere except maybe down.
Oops. There goes that armchair general thing again. There are literally thousands of stocks in the same boat as as Chewy and Lemonade. Bad with four, good with peace. No matter what, though, the bottom is out of our hands. We can't control it. What is tonight when the president moved the goal post again?
We just shrugged. That's all we can do. So, you know what I'm going to do? I I tonight I'm going to turn the whole process upside down and think about what the war really means to someone who's simply trying to build a portfolio. We know we can't predict the outcome and we can't control it. We can't predict the timing either, as tonight's bombing pause extension shows.
But we can gauge is whether the stocks we like have much of a connection to war, or are they just going down because of the market more, or are they going down because something's wrong? Look, there are ample reasons to believe that the war is just going to drag on. The president keeps saying over and over again that he's going to wind the war up soon, even as he also talks about a possible ground invasion.
We have to assume for the moment that the conventional wisdom is right. So, let's deal with the hand we've been dealt. Why don't we pick an obvious stock and work through the process? A stock that everyone I know is selling, a stock that people are getting out of giving up on, a stock that I heard all day was done, done.
Let's talk Nvidia. Yes. Let's match it against a checklist that could actually, in an unemotional way, determine whether it's worth buying before we get to clarity on when the war will end. Stock fell $7 or 4% today in a truly hideous session. What I heard today was Nvidia and its compadres have hit a watershed moment and they are finished and you've got to sell every single one of them.
I heard that over and over and over again, which makes me say, do we buy them?" First, we have to ask, is Nvidia's stock down because of the war? I contend the war has something to do with Nvidia, but it's not totally quantifiable. I will posit this, Nvidia is a big big part of the stock market itself.
It's also the easiest stock in the world to trade. I think it's going down because it's so easy to get back in at a lower level. Nvidia is a member of the Depressing Mag 7. But, are we really supposed to switch, say, to the Chem 7? An exclusive list of companies that will benefit in a long war. A list that my old friend Frank Mitsch from Permian suggests buy Chemours, buy Celanese, Dow, Huntsman, LyondellBasell, uh Basell, uh Olin Corp, Tronox.
There we go. THAT'S WHAT YOU WANT. SELL MAG 7. BUY THOSE. JUST GO AHEAD. DO IT FOR ME. Do you think they're more Mag-nificent than Nvidia? Um that they are levered to the Middle East destruction, so therefore they're as good as gold? No, better, cuz gold was down today. Right now, the Chem 7 are easier to own than Nvidia.
There's no doubt about that. They only work, though, if the worst days are on a petrochemical facilities and the Gulf keep getting bombed. Nvidia, on the other hand, works regardless of what's happening with Iran. At least their business does. The Chem 7 has a shelf life that could be 2 weeks, especially if the Iranians simply give in.
Nvidia, I don't see a foreseeable shelf life, other than when the journalists and the commentators tell me to sell it. Next, is Nvidia down because interest rates are going up largely because of war-related inflation? Totally possible. Company will do better with lower rates because lower rates make it easier to build more data centers.
That said, if the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you'll feel like a for staying away from Nvidia. You'll say, "Why did I watch that show?" Third, is there an intrinsic reason Nvidia might be down that's incorrect? I think that's true. Right now, the tech industry is short on what we call compute, and it's also short on memory.
Two different things. That means it's short the computers that uh that that have Nvidia inside. They need more Nvidia. They need hundreds of thousands more Nvidia chips to meet the demand. But, at the same time, memory chips separate have been going up in price, and that's hurt the sales of the adjacent products that also go into the server, like Nvidia.
The non-memory chips, including Nvidia chips, haven't sold as well as they could because the high cost of memory means businesses businesses can't afford all the machines they'd like. In the last few days though, we've been hearing about a new technology, Google, that has that obviates the need for huge amounts of memory chips, not Nvidia chips, memory chips.
If there's anything that alleviates the tightness of memory, then we have less reason to worry that Nvidia sales will be hurt by the memory shortage. In other words, it's a positive not a negative. It's ridiculous how this stock is acting, at least in reference to the Google issue. That says uh that's a buy Nvidia right into the teeth of this decline.
Next item, how about oil? Nvidia's data centers run mostly on natural gas, which is US-based and is rarely budged. So, no, its computers could be impa- its customers could be impacted, absolutely. But uh everything you use for Nvidia is considered mission-critical, so I'm not concerned. Then you have to ask yourself, why do you want to own anything that is so obviously going lower?
Who would be such a glutton for punishment? The answer there, there's only one, a shocking surprise deal with Iran could turn this thing around immediately, and you're there for you're afraid to miss it. Anything's possible. President announce the extension right tonight. What if he had said, "The street will be open this weekend.
There'll be no nukes. The war is over." You think you could buy Nvidia 172? Good luck. Finally, we need to know, is there anything about demand here that could be dropping off or not? It's conceivable that sovereign capital from the Gulf is drying up, and that's finance of data centers uh uh private credits involved with data centers.
But last week I attended the Nvidia GTC conference, and I learned the demand is incredibly strong. That That's like 5 days ago. What does the evidence cut to? I take the Chem 7 right now over buying Nvidia tomorrow. But depending upon what happens these next 10 days, I might be done with the chemicals.
I won't be done with Nvidia. Is it worth the process? Oh, I wish it were, but to me you're only being given a chance to buy a high-quality stock at a lower price than you normally expect cuz everyone's saying it's a watershed moment and it's finished. You can't time it. Don't forget that you can always buy more lower because actually shocking Nvidia does get cheaper as the stock goes down.
Here's the bottom line. All things equal, I would I'd wait on Nvidia. I don't want the Chem 7 either though. Let's just say you are too early on one and too late on the other, but I'd rather be early than late any day of the week, even this week. Let's go to Tony in Florida, please. Tony. Hey Jim, I want to thank you.
You sent me a book that you signed and I really don't read, but that made me keep on reading and I really appreciate that. Ah, you're kind. You're very kind. Thank you. I hope you're at the meeting tomorrow at noon. We're going to talk about a lot of the stuff that we're going over tonight, but in much better I think so.
miss a meeting unless I'm working, but Fridays I'm usually off, so I'm looking forward to it. You're like my daughter, never miss a meeting, she always tells me best one yet, but that's what pop told me for 40 years. So let's go to work. Okay, yeah, this is stock I bought three times as it went down, down, down and I don't think it's going to get hit with the stuff with Iran and it's from it's Medtronic, MDT.
to tell you, I was surprised that Medtronic got back down to the high 80s. I think that everything they've been doing lately is right. I think you've got a good one. By the way, it's 15 times earnings, that's very inexpensive. I would buy more, Tony. I know it sounds like you're just averaging down into oblivion, but I think it's a great level.
And thank you for those kind comments. I mean, I'm really trying to do something out here. It was a hard day. Jeff and I were talking all day. We were concerned Ben Stoked and so we don't want to lose anybody money, but we've tried to make people a lot of money over time. We're just going to keep trying to do that.
It's the only thing I know how to do. All things being equal, I want to wait right now when it comes to the market, including Nvidia, but I know I want to be in it long term. That does matter. Remember long term? All my money tonight is AI consolidation going to impact the legacy players in cybersecurity or is Wall Street blowing it out of proportion and doing a lot of other A lot of other things being blown out of proportion.
I'm checking with CrowdStrike to get the latest on the situation. And Chewy is at the cheapest it's ever been. So is it time to get into this name? I'm going to get the company's recent earnings and give you my take. Oh oh pets are they going to 10 days pets no 10 days Oh no pets will still be here after work.
And AI enabled insurance company Lemonade has seen a big pullback lately and buy. Don't miss my exclusive with the CEO of Smart Pet Lover. So stay with me. .
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